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richard-westwood

Racing Chat - (Ascot Day 2) Weds 17th June

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My selections:

Ew bet 115 As:  Salayel
Ew bet: 150 As:  Juan Elcano
Ew bet 225 As:  Bright Melody
Ew bet 300 As:  Addeybb
Ew bet 335 As:  AFAAK
Ew bet 410 As:  Mighty Gurkha
Ew bet 440 As:  Alright Sunshine


 

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A horse I had a few hairs of when he was with mark Johnson runs in the 19.20 at chelmsford.  He was a nutcase , even after being gelded he was still a nutcase lol .won a couple of races and placed another 3 before moving to howling then Banham who turned him round landing a massive gamble at Wolverhampton 50/1 into 10 (80 on the exchange) and following up a few weeks later .  Will he win today , if hes in the mood yes he could but at 5/1 hes an ew bet to nothing anyway.  He will have the burden of my cash on his back .

Pic . Axel,  morning workout with mark Johnson 2018

IMG_0119.jpg

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1.15 Ascot - 1pt e/w Sir Busker @ 12/1 Bet365

Progressive type who won last time out at Kempton - although he's done most of his racing over shorter trips, has seen the mile out strongly and the key to this horse is having a strong pace to chase. Ought to get that today and still seems to be improving so this race looks ideal for him.

1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w Kenzai Warrior @ 11/1 Bet365

Again I'm happy to take form in the book over potential and I think this one has a decent chance today. Form of his maiden win over Max Vega reads well, won a 7f race despite being short of room and it being shorter than his ideal trip on his second start and then you can put a line through his run in the Guineas. Fly leapt and stumbled at the start but did make some headway into midfield - well beaten ultimately but he wouldn't have wanted to be that far back at all as he doesn't do anything that quickly so I think the step up in trip today can suit and potentially a more positive ride too with a better start.

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win Bright Melody @ 11/2 Bet365

Plenty of potential having had just 2 starts so far - was slowly away and green on debut but was strong at the finish and well on top to get off to a winning start. The 3rd that day is now rated 88 so I don't think 98 is restrictive for this one, especially up in trip from its pleasing reappearance run when a staying-on 3rd at Kempton over 1m2f, when Pyledriver was 2nd. More to come and conditions should be absolutely fine. 

3.00 Ascot - 2pts win Japan 11/8 Bet365

Tough to beat on last year's evidence. Addeybb would pose more of a threat on softer ground I think so unless there's a monster improver here, can't see Japan getting beat really.

3.35 Ascot - 1pt e/w Indeed 22/1 Bet365

Obviously a bit of a minefield here but Indeed is an interesting runner who I think will relish conditions here - a true test over a mile will be spot on and I think he can hold a handy sit and keep rolling, so long as he's on the right part of the track. Trainer form is a bit of a concern with only 3 runners since the restart and all have been well beaten but this one looks off a competitive, if not easy mark and some good form in the book in group and listed races. 

4.10 Ascot - 1pt win Mighty Gurkha 7/1 Bet365

Tricky race given the lack of evidence on show but despite it being a poor race he won at Lingfield, it's hard not to be taken by the performance of Mighty Gurkha. Showed an excellent turn of foot to quickly but 6 or 7 lengths between him and his field over 6f there, plenty of pace for 5f and getting further is no bad thing in a race like this. Exciting prospect and if he was with a more fashionable trainer would be considerably shorter.

4.40 Ascot - 3pts win Ranch Hand 4/1 Bet365

I think this one has a monster chance today. Flopped when sent off favourite for the Cesarewitch last season but was keen and sometimes just because you stay 1m6f, it doesn't mean you get 2m2f or he could have just had a bad day at the office. However, look at his form before hand and he looks to have a huge chance today with conditions to suit. His run in Group company makes this mark look fair and he won a handicap by 2l two starts back from a horse who has since gone up 18lbs in the handicap - Ranch Hand is just 5lbs higher today and I think is well in today. 

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Sticking with my All Aged Handicap system for the time being 

Brief precis

- draw a line through horses two years and more older than youngest horse in race
- draw a line through any horse that hasn't won over trip
- where relevant draw a line through badly drawn horses

whatever you're left with choose two based on trainier, current form , the usual stuff. 

Makes life easy if you're only left with one, if there's too many left (as per Royal Ascot handicaps) move on to the next race

One tweak as from today ..... I'm no longer going to suggest EW, everything is Win Only

I've been doing this for about a week with good results ....... plenty of winners including two at 20/1. From today I think I'll do a proper paper trial with a 1 point stake on all selections and keep a record ........ no doubt this is where it goes tits up ! ... 😀

Todays Selections ..... 

Bev

1.25 - One One Seven 6/1 and The Grey Zebedee 8/1
2.00 - Atyaaf 4/1 and Dahik 8/1
3.10 - Silver Dust 11/4 and Highest Mountain 10/1
4.50 - Encryption 9/2

Chelm

6.20 - Royal Dynasty 4/1 and Javelin 12/1
7.20 - Axel Jacklin 5/1 and Moretti 14/1
7.50 - Sir Hamilton 10/1 and Azets 11/1

prices bet365 bog ........... 13 points staked

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Todays Handicaps -

Ascot

1.15    Zhui Feng                  20/1ew
3.35    Raising Sand            25/1ew
3.35    Afaak                        12/1ew

Beverley

1.25    Burtonwood              13/2ew
1.25    One One Seven         6/1ew
1.25    David’s Beauty         16/1ew
2.00    Atyaaf                        4/1ew
2.00    Arnold                      10/1ew
2.00    Astrophysics            14/1ew
3.10    Northern Lyte             9/1ew
3.10    How Bizzare              7/1ew

Chelmsford

4.45    Zulu Zander            10/1ew
6.20    Royal Dynasty          4/1ew
6.20    Human Nature         11/4
6.20    Javelin                    12/1ew
6.50    Animal Instinct          5/1ew
7.50    Three C’s                 13/8
7.50    Caribbean Spring    10/1ew
7.50    Zefferino                 12/1ew
7.50    Sir Hamilton            12/1ew

Gowran Park

4.30    Lethal Power            10/1ew
5.05    Art Of America          10/1ew
5.05    Roibeard                  12/1ew

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1.15 Ascot  first 2 in the betting 9/2 so i stroke them out before i even do the form! Rubbish price for a big open handicap like this i  wouldnt be backing a horse in single figures  that not stay they can't win but imho no value at all and with some bookies paying 6places  plenty of e/w value to be had. I have gone with SO BELOVED 66/1 1/4 5pl Bet 365 as my main bet  often runs well in these sort of races  and is massively overpriced in my opinion also had a bit on front runner ZHUI FENG 20/1 bet 365.

Royal Hunt Cup

Main bet is a very strong e/w bet for me 7 places 1/5 odds skybet  AFAAK 11/1  last years winner 3lb higher but the very talented C fallon takes that off looks sure to be in the thick of things in the closing stages also two small e/w bets on 33/1 shots FOX CHAMPION & BEATBOXER

4.40 DUBIA HORIZON 22/1 1/4 4 place should give a good account in this for the Godolpin team 22/1 seems very generous to me.

Good Luck All.

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Hi there -£2.75 loss yesterday

+£19.25 after 188 races back to tampa bay 

tampa bay 

race 1 ollysilverexpress 16/1

race 2 fiddler 50/1

race 3 red cat rose 40/1

race 4 mo margarita 33/1

race 5 storm advisory 5/1

race 6 chill mac’n cheese 33/1

race 7 mikado 40/1

race 8 bourbon 🥃 trace 66/1

all bets 25p e/w good luck 

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Very late today as had to do other chores earlier.

4.45 Chelm Lezardiex 2/1  £2 win

6.20 Chelm Human Nature 11/4  £2 win

6.50 Chelm Animal Instinct 4/1 £1 win

1 x £1 win Trixie = £4 v £101.25

4.45 Chelm Sur Mer £1 win at 11/2

4.50 Bev Wadacre Galoubet £2 win at 3/1

4.50 Bev Encryption £1 win at 9/2

6.50 Chelm Endowed £1 at 9/1

= £14 total staked

Lost 75p on win bets yesterday = £357.90 C/Fwd

Lost £4 on multiples = £610.29 C/Fwd

PS can I do anything to stop the DOUBLE SPACING on this page, nothing seems available to do so yet I see other people using single line spacing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, roger2256 said:

A horse I had a few hairs of when he was with mark Johnson runs in the 19.20 at chelmsford.  He was a nutcase , even after being gelded he was still a nutcase lol .won a couple of races and placed another 3 before moving to howling then Banham who turned him round landing a massive gamble at Wolverhampton 50/1 into 10 (80 on the exchange) and following up a few weeks later .  Will he win today , if hes in the mood yes he could but at 5/1 hes an ew bet to nothing anyway.  He will have the burden of my cash on his back .

Pic . Axel,  morning workout with mark Johnson 2018

IMG_0119.jpg

Being kind if I say he needed the run lol , back to his old tricks and spat the dummy. Guess they will find some sort of race for him at some stage .

Dram runs in a few days so see how she goes after her injuries.  

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7 hours ago, Trotter said:

Todays Selections ..... 

Bev

3.10 - Silver Dust 11/4 (WON 10/3)

Chelm

6.20 - Royal Dynasty 4/1 (WON)
7.50 Azets 11/1 (WON 14/1)

prices bet365 bog ........... 13 points staked

Good start to the paper trailling !

Today - 13 points staked, return 24.33, profit/loss +11.33

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Some profit today -

Ascot

1.15    Zhui Feng                  20/1ew------------lost
3.35    Raising Sand             25/1ew------------lost
3.35    Afaak                         12/1ew------------7th 11/1

Beverley

1.25    Burtonwood               13/2ew-------------1st 13/2
1.25    One One Seven          6/1ew-------------lost
1.25    David’s Beauty         16/1ew-------------3rd 16/1
2.00    Atyaaf                         4/1ew-------------lost
2.00    Arnold                       10/1ew-------------lost
2.00    Astrophysics             14/1ew-------------lost
3.10    Northern Lyte             9/1ew--------------lost
3.10    How Bizzare              7/1ew--------------lost

Chelmsford

4.45    Zulu Zander            10/1ew-------------2nd 11/1
6.20    Royal Dynasty          4/1ew-------------1st 10/3
6.20    Human Nature         11/4-----------------lost 3/1jt fav
6.20    Javelin                    12/1ew--------------3rd 12/1
6.50    Animal Instinct          5/1ew--------------1st 11/4
7.50    Three C’s                 13/8-----------------lost
7.50    Caribbean Spring    10/1ew-------------2nd 20/1
7.50    Zefferino                  12/1ew-------------lost
7.50    Sir Hamilton             12/1ew-------------n/r

Gowran Park

4.30    Lethal Power           10/1ew--------------2nd 10/1
5.05    Art Of America         10/1ew--------------lost
5.05    Roibeard                  12/1ew--------------3rd 28/1

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very late today as had to do other chores earlier.

4.45 Chelm Lezardiex 2/1  £2 win

6.20 Chelm Human Nature 11/4  £2 win

6.50 Chelm Animal Instinct 4/1 £1 win

1 x £1 win Trixie = £4 v £101.25

4.45 Chelm Sur Mer £1 win at 11/2

4.50 Bev Wadacre Galoubet £2 win at 3/1

4.50 Bev Encryption £1 win at 9/2

6.50 Chelm Endowed £1 at 9/1

= £14 total staked

Lost 75p on win bets yesterday = £357.90 C/Fwd

Lost £4 on multiples = £610.29 C/Fwd

PS can I do anything to stop the DOUBLE SPACING on this page, nothing seems available to do so yet I see other people using single line spacing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two winners today.  BOG on my singles showed a profit of £3.  Unfortunately I didn't get two in my Trixie so a loss of £4 today

Multiples balance C/Fwd £606.29 (£800 Bank)
Singles Balance C/Fwd £360.90 (£400 Bank)

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