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Racing Chat - Saturday June 13th


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Only time for some very brief reasoning this week, but I gave bets in 4 races at Moonee Valley and 5 races at Rosehill.

Moonee Valley R3 (4.35am)

Sikorsky should have won last time a couple of weeks ago, but he just didn't have quite enough at the end of the race after doing plenty early enough. He doesn't have a great draw here which is a worry, but the shorter straight should help and he can win this after connections decided to give him another week after scratching him last week.

Sikorsky @ 13/8 with Betfred

Moonee Valley R4 (5.15am)

Great Again was a good winner 1st up at Flemington and I think he can win again. His record over 1200m reads 5/7, 2nd up he's won twice and finished 2nd twice from 4 starts and on soft ground he's 6/8 and finished twice the other two starts. He showed great guts the last day and I think he can get the better of main danger Tavisan.

Great Along @ 11/4 with Betfred

Moonee Valley R7 (7.15am)

With Royal Ascot next week we have last year's Britannia Stakes winner Biometric make his 2nd start in Oz. I thought he ran really well 1st up even though he only came 9th. He was last as they turned from home and he got no luck in running in the straight. It would be no surprise to see him improve massively for that run as well and Craig Williams takes over in the saddle.

Plein Ciel is a horse I have followed for a while, but he's been out of form for a bit now. However he's first up run at Flemington a month ago was a return to form especially over a trip which was short of his best. He was just beaten in 3rd that day and is worth adding as a saver as if he builds on that he's a big player.

Biometric @ 7/2 with Betfair

Plein Ciel @ 6/1 with BetVictor

Moonee Valley R8 (7.50am)

This is a good race which could see horses going to the big races in the spring. Django Freeman is the main selection. He was 2nd in the German Derby on his last start in Germany and he was one just to watch on his Oz debut at Flemington last month. Over a short enough trip he ran a cracking race to finish 3rd to Reykjavik. The Melbourne Cup is on his radar and stepping up to 2040m is going to see even more improvement.

I am going to have a saver on Harbour Views even though he is the market leader. I put him last time and he was only 3rd behind a massive priced winner, but he was found to have mucus in his lungs after that so he is worth giving another chance to. Connections are eying up a tilt at the Cox Plate so he needs to be winning this to be up to that level.

Django Freeman @ 11/4 with Bet365

Harbour Views @ 9/5 with Bet365

Rosehill R3 (3.55am)

I have to give a last chance to Miss Einstein. She didn't get much luck in running and arguably wasn't given the best of rides behind Bound To Win last time. McEvoy takes over in the saddle and she deserves a win this prep as her two previous runs are top notch form and more than good enough to land this.

Miss Einstein @ 100/30 with Betfair

Rosehill R4 (4.10am)

The Lord Mayors Cup over 2000m here a couple of weeks ago is clearly the key form race and although others are better off in the weights now I think Wu Gok can win again. His form on a heavy track is superb and he looks set to get a very easy lead again just as he did last time. There is no other speed in the race and I can see him making all again.

Wu Gok @ 13/8 with Betfred

Rosehill R5 (4.50am)

Rari is first up after looking decent last prep. The concern is he has finished 2nd 5 times and won just 1 of 10, but he trailed well behind Classique Legend recently and that bodes well for this. 

I also like Bring The Ransom who is a big price. She had no luck at all behind Mo's Crown last time. She was still in 10th passing the 400m mark and was crowded most of the way down the straight until she was checked about 150m out losing all momentum. It was some effort to finish as close as she did.

Rari @ 7/1 with Bet365

Bring The Ransom e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

Rosehill R6 (5.30am)

Across Dubai is another having his 2nd Oz start having been trained over here. He got no luck here a couple of weeks back over 1500m and he wasn't knocked about late on when he's chance had gone. He can only improve off that effort and an extra 300m trip will also help.

New Arrangement is one of the reserves so isn't guaranteed to run, but he was really unlucky last time and ought to have won. He's another who used to be trained over here and his last 3 runs have all been good enough to win this especially as he didn't have much luck in the other two either.

Across Dubai e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (4 places unlike in Oz)

New Arrangment e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred

Rosehill R7 (6.10am)

Adelong was set to run last week, but they scratched her which was probably a wise idea as this looks weaker. Yes others who have run behind her recently are better off in the weights, but she has really impressed me and I think there is plenty more to come.

Adelong @ 9/5 with Betfair

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New Arrangement gets a run although becomes a win only bet now as we are down to 3 places and the price has come in with the non-runners. Across Dubai is still e/w but obviously just the 3 places now.

The short price fav has come out of the 5th at Rosehill so Bring The Ransom is no longer a double figure price although still going to put him up e/w

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Hi there just a heads up racing in Germany today Dresden 2 of there top jockeys m pecheur and B murzabayev have some decent priced rides I shall back most of there rides except a couple of odds ons good luck 

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All aged handicaps ......... selections and a few EW shots

Donny -2.15 Clockers Corner 10/1 and Northernpowerhouse 11/1 (EW)
Donny -3.25 Caustic Love 14/1 (EW) and Teston 20/1 (EW)
Newb - 12.45 Madame Tantzy 6/1 and Merweb 9/1
Newb - 1.15 Edmond Dantes 7/2 and Isle of Wolves 8/1
Newb - 4.45 Fancy Footings 15/2 and Kodiac Harbour 12/1 (EW)
Sand - 3.15 Exec Chief 5/1 and Elegant Light 9/1
Sand - 4.20 Seaborn 9/2 and Nuits St George 5/1
Sand - 4.50 Singing The Blues 5/1 and Young Merlin 9/2
Leic - 7.30 Couldn't Could She 12/1 (EW)
Leic - 8.00 Al Ozzdi 11/4 and Maxy Mares 15/2

prices bet365 bog

Edited by Trotter
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Small Stake Saturday Yankee ( Coral )

1200 Donc - Rebel At Dawn 11/10 1st

1245 Newb - Fortune And Glory 7/2 1st

1255 Sand - Bungledupinblue 6/4 2nd

800 Leic - Al Ozzdi 10/3

Only 18 days until ' Jumps Season ' 😀

Edited by calva decoy
Results update
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Don't know much about the runners in the Irish 1000 gns because we haven't had the usual trials

Seen a few clips this week in previews and Albigna looks like a bit of a monster ..... when she wins she scythes through the field like the proverbial hot knife through butter but she has been beaten a couple of times

Once was by Love who won the Newmarket 1000 gns and the other time was in the US at the Breeders Cup which I guess is fair enough with the travelling etc

Slight worry is that when she was beaten by Love the jockey reported that she had shied away as the winner went passed her and eventually finished 6th.......presumably this is why they usually ride near the back and run through horses rather than being at the front and shying away if challenged. Potentially makes her a tricky ride and might need luck in running

She might have to do a Siskin !

Curragh 7.15 - Albigna - 7/4 - Paddypower

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Some handicap selections -

Newbury           12.45    Fortune And Glory      7/2
Doncaster          2.15    Presidential               13/2ew
Doncaster          2.15    Muntadab                  10/1ew
Sandown            3.15    Lyndon B                  14/1ew
Newbury            4.45    Gin Palace                15/2ew
Sandown            4.50    Young Merlin              9/2ew
Curragh              6.15    Shamad                   16/1ew

J Gosden has a few fancied runners that I like the look of so -

Newbury           12.15    Tsar                         1/1
Sandown            3.45    Byzantine Empire    7/2
Newbury             4.10    Nasraawy              13/8
Leicester             5.30    Donnybrook            2/1

Singles and a small yankee on above selections

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12.30 Doncaster - 3pts win Gossip @ 5/2 (Bet365)

Really think this one wins today - surprised she's been given a mark as lowly as 65 on handicap debut. Conditions fine and saw off a few horses now rated higher than her mark in novice runs. Open to improvement and she's surely capable of winning off this mark.

1.15 Newbury - 1pt win Redgrave @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Down off a decent mark here having run some decent races off higher marks last season. Conditions fine, goes well fresh and trainer Edward Tuite is in form.

1.50 Newbury - 2pts win It's Good to Laugh @ 5/2 (Bet365)

Close 2nd to Kameko on debut looks good form now but has a big chance on other runs too. Losing margin when 2nd last time out was exaggerated having been hampered late on, any rain won't inconvenience and the winner last time has gone in again off 5lbs higher. Even when this one was 10th of 10 two starts back, the form has worked out well so wasn't a terrible effort. 

2.05 Sandown - 2pts win Ascension @ 5/2 (Bet365)

Open to improvement this year and has a swing in the weights with Tomfre on his final run of last season when slowly away and didn't get the best of passages. The fact that he easily brushed aside a horse now rated 92 in a novice race, and gets to run off 87 here bodes well and no issues with conditions. Tough to beat. 

2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Viva Gloria @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Think this one has a decent e/w chance based on a good run at Kempton last time, outrunning her odds and wasn't beaten far by Foxtrot Lady there who is a 9/2 shot today. Raced keenly but battled on well and I think the step back to 7f and a positive ride could see her a tough nut to crack. Hope John Egan goes from the front and forces it today.

3.35 Newbury - 2pts win Zaaki @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Fav is short and there wasn't much between these two last season. Zaaki has a better attitude than Comedy King for me and goes very well fresh, including when beating Barney Roy on last year's reappearance. Think he can turn him over.

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Just a few selections today as ran out of time

1.50 NB Gold Souk 15/4  £2 win at 15/4 = £9.50

2.05 San Well Of Wisdom 10/3  £2 win at  10/3 = £ 8.67

2.25 Nb Miss Celestial 4/1  £1 win = £5

One Trixie for a £1 = £4 v £168.92

Also 1.50 Nb Tell Me All £1 win at 11/2 - £6.50

= £10 staked in total

No Multiple bets yesterday so balance is the same at £622.29

3 £1 win bets lost yesterday, therefore Singles balance reduced to £357.15

I am quite excited about how I go about my new racing analysis from now on

Good luck everyone with your own picks

 

 

 

 

 

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Newbury           12.45    Fortune And Glory    7/2-----------1st 18/5 fav😀
Doncaster           2.15    Presidential            13/2ew--------1st 9/2😀
Doncaster           2.15    Muntadab               10/1ew--------2nd 9/1😀
Sandown            3.15    Lyndon B                14/1ew--------lost
Newbury             4.45    Gin Palace             15/2ew--------1st 8/1😀
Sandown            4.50    Young Merlin            9/2ew--------2nd 7/2
Curragh              6.15    Shamad                   16/1ew--------lost

J Gosden has a few fancied runners that I like the look of so -

Newbury           12.15    Tsar                         1/1-------2nd 5/4 fav
Sandown            3.45    Byzantine Empire    7/2-------lost
Newbury            4.10    Nasraawy               13/8-------2nd 1/1 fav
Leicester            5.30    Donnybrook             2/1-------2nd 11/4

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12 hours ago, Trotter said:

All aged handicaps ......... selections and a few EW shots

Donny -2.15 Clockers Corner 10/1 
Donny -3.25 Caustic Love 14/1 (EW) (placed 20/1) and Teston 20/1 (EW) (WON 20/1)
Newb - 12.45 Madame Tantzy 6/1 and Merweb 9/1
Newb - 1.15 Edmond Dantes 7/2 (WON) and Isle of Wolves 8/1
Newb - 4.45 Fancy Footings 15/2 and Kodiac Harbour 12/1 (EW)
Sand - 3.15 Exec Chief 5/1 and Elegant Light 9/1
Sand - 4.20 Seaborn 9/2 and Nuits St George 5/1 (WON)
Sand - 4.50 Singing The Blues 5/1 and Young Merlin 9/2
Leic - 7.30 Couldn't Could She 12/1 (EW) (placed)
Leic - 8.00 Al Ozzdi 11/4 and Maxy Mares 15/2

prices bet365 bog

not bad .... 3 winners, two EW placed

been doing the 'system' for 2 days had two 20/1 winners

think I'll keep going until I have a run of losing days !

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

not bad .... 3 winners, two EW placed

been doing the 'system' for 2 days had two 20/1 winners

think I'll keep going until I have a run of losing days !

Well done, hope it doesn't take up too much time to find selections.  Looks promising so far

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