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Premier League Predictions > May 29th - 31st

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Torpedo Zhodino vs Smolevichi

The first game in the Belarus Premier League this weekend comes from the Torpedo Stadium at 4pm BST today when Torpedo Zhodino will host Smolevichi. On paper, it seems to be a game that will only have one outcome but is there anything we're not taking into account that could surprise us? Let's take a look at how both sides are set up for this game later on.

Torpedo Zhodino are in 3rd place despite having lost their first league game in 6 matches last week to Neman Grodno away. It was a disappointing loss for Yuri Puntus and his players who could have really turned the pressure on league leaders BATE Borisov with a win. This game is a huge opportunity for the team to return to winning ways against an opponent that is really struggling to compete this season so far. It probably won't be a thriller with 3 of the last 4 home league games for Torpedo seeing less than 3 goals scored.

Smolevichi's turmoil continues with the team failing to get their first league win of the season for a 9th consecutive time this campaign. The positive news is that they did manage to hold Ruh Brest to a 0-0 draw away and that point has taken their total season points tally to 4 points now. The team remains in 15th place and are 6 points off the pace of safety having played a game more than 14th placed FC Minsk. One thing I will say for this Smolevichi team is that they're proving tough to beat on their travels having drawn 3 of their 4 away matches with less than 3 goals scored in all 4 away games this season.

Yes, this might very well be a game that is Torpedo Zhodino's to lose but this Smolevichi team have firmly adopted the approach that if they can't beat teams yet then they're going to make it as damn hard as possible to get beaten themselves. If they can turn those draws into wins then they'll start moving up the table but right now they're not managing that. Torpedo Zhodino will be looking to bounce back to winning ways and I expect them to do that here but it'll be a hard-fought narrow win.

Torpedo Zhodino to Win @ 1.83 with Boylesports

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.65 with Bet365

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Gorodeya vs Neman Grodno

There are two league games in the Belarus Premier League today. Yes, I know, it's a treat! The second match kicks off at 6pm BST and it's between Gorodeya and Neman Grodno at the Haradzeya Stadium. Both sides are positioned dangerously above the relegation zone so the desire to get the full 3 points will be urgent with both of these teams. Who will win?

Gorodeya come into this game in 12th place but are on a drought as far as wins are concerned. Oleg Radushko has seen his team only lost 1 of their last 4 league games but the 3 other results have been draws. That means it's also now 5 games without a win. The beauty of statistics. Both teams have scored in all four of their most recent league matches so their matches are prone to goals at the moment. The need for a victory is becoming urgent with the team slowly sliding further down the league table.

Neman Grodno are one position behind their opponents coming into this game in 13th place and just 1 point further back. Igor Kovalevich witnessed his team secure a first win after two heavy defeats in the league as they beat Torpedo Zhodino 3-1 at home. This team hasn't experienced a victory on the road yet this season but can the win last weekend be the result that spurs them on?

This is a tough one to call because neither side is brimming with confidence. The bookies can't call it. The ELO ratings can't call it. I can't call it. Therefore, I have to be a wet blanket and make a call down the middle. I think backing the draw is the best option but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored in this game with neither defence looking especially water tight right now.

Draw @ 3.20 with Bet365

BTTS @ 2.28 with 888Sport

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First game in Belarus is Torpedo Zhodino v Smolevichi, reffed by Stetsurin. Prices for high/low cards seem about fair so that leaves me with the following bets.

4-6 cards shown at 6/5 Hills (looks a solid coin toss to me)

Buy pen goal mins at 12 with SPIN and pen taken at 11/4 Sky Bet.

Have bought pen goal mins at 11 in the later game and backed 3/1 pen taken in that and the Belshina/Slavia game tomorrow. Have also done those in a trixie. Have done singles and trixie on 2+ pens taken in those games at 28/1 each.

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Belshina vs Slavia Mozyr

The Belarus Premier League offers us two matches today with the first game between Belshina and Slavia Mozyr coming up at 3pm BST from the Spartak Stadium in Bobruisk. The home side know they need to start winning games as soon as possible to avoid being cut adrift at the bottom as they play an away team that is also becoming desperate for victories.

Belshina sit bottom of the Belarusian top flight having only managed to earn 3 points from their opening 10 league games. Manager Eduard Gradoboyev would have known his team would find it hard after promotion from the second tier but he'll clearly be desperately disappointed that his side are placed even lower than fellow promoted rivals Smolevichi and Ruh Brest. All three draws that Belshina have earned this season have ended as 1-1 score-lines. However, it is now 4 losses from their last 5 league games.

Slavia Mozyr are not quite in as bad a position as their opponents for this game but Mihail Martsinovich's side are still lowly placed in 12th and just 2 points above the relegation play-off spot held by FC Minsk who currently have games in hand on the teams above them. Just 1 win from their last 8 competitive league matches shows the downturn in form for this side. It's also 3 defeats from their last 4 away matches.

You'd like to think that Belshina's first win of the season will come at some point. Is this the game where it finally happens? I'm not sure. The self-belief appears to have been sapped from the players' legs over recent weeks and it's difficult to find any argument to back them. I think the current form of Slavia Mozyr leaves them vulnerable and maybe it's worth backing the home side to grab a point here.

Draw @ 3.13 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with SpreadEx

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Dinamo Minsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk

The second game in the Belarus Premier League today is the 5pm BST kick-off between Dinamo Minsk and Shakhtyor Soligorsk at the Dinamo Stadium. This will be a game between two sides that will both feel they can come into this encounter and walk away with all 3 points. It's a tough one to call but let's take a look and see if either side has a slight edge coming into this game.

Dinamo Minsk are starting to settle down under Leonid Kuchuk. A dodgy patch a couple of weeks back has been stabilised with a 1-0 win at home over Isloch followed by a 1-1 draw away to Vitebsk last week. Scoring goals remains an issue for this Dinamo side with an average of 1 goal per game scored over their last 4 league matches. The jury does still remain out on this team this season though. It's still just 1 win from their last 4 league games so they need to start putting some results together if they want to climb higher than their current league position of 11th place.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk are arguably the team in the best form in the Belarusian top flight right now. 5 wins from their last 6 matches in all competitions including 4 consecutive clean sheets in the league has seen the team rise to 4th in the table and just 4 points behind league leaders BATE Borisov. Shakhtyor haven't conceded a league goal on the road so far this season. It shows how effectively they set up on their travels and immediately sets the alarms bells ringing that this could be a little bit of a laborious affair.

Do not expect goals in this game. I repeat. Do not expect goals! Dinamo Minsk are struggling to get goals themselves at the moment and Shakhtyor Soligorsk are quite cautious on the road so I wouldn't be surprised if this ended 0-0. The odd goal might divide them but I think if I had to put money on it I don't think either side would be disappointed in a low-scoring draw.

Draw @ 3.25 with SpreadEx

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.65 with Bet365

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Energetik-BGU vs Vitebsk

There are three Belarus Premier League matches taking place today and the first of those is scheduled to kick-off at 2pm BST this afternoon when Energetik-BGU welcome Vitebsk to Haradski Stadium. This is a game the home side will want to win to allow them to move to the top of the table, albeit temporarily, against an away side that are starting to look over their shoulders after a poor run of results.

Energetik-BGU come into this match in 3rd place after Torpedo Zhodino's win yesterday. Vladimir Belyavskiy's men are only 1 point off the pace of league leaders BATE Borisov and with BATE not playing until later on this is a big chance to take the top place in the league. This team has now won 4 league games on the bounce and momentum is building very positively. There has been no lack of confidence in front of goal either with the team scoring two goals in each of those matches. Having won 3 of their 4 home league games this season it's easy to see why the players might feel this game is theirs for the taking.

Vitebsk can't say their spirits are as high as their opponents ahead of this game. Sergey Yasinsky's side are in 10th place and now just 3 points above the relegation play-off position after a torrid run of 5 league games without a win. Just 1 win from their 5 away league games only adds to the misery. The 3 consecutive draws that the team has managed to grind out suggests that they're becoming a tough team to break down but this is a different proposition here today.

I can't see past a home win. This league has been notorious for throwing up some curveballs with results but this is a classic case of a team in the ascendancy playing at home against a team that is faltering on the road. The ELO ratings depict that it's not as cut and dry as we might think with a slight edge being given to the away side but I have to back the home win.

Energetik-BGU to Win @ 2.05 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.95 with Boylesports

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BATE Borisov vs Isloch

One of the most intriguing games of the season so far is set to kick-off at 4pm BST today when league leaders BATE Borisov host the unpredictable Isloch at the Borisov Arena. Will this be a run-of-the-mill win for the in-form side in the Belarus Premier League or will a stuttering visiting team be able to find something deep to cause one of the shock results of the league campaign to date?

BATE Borisov look too hot to handle right now. Kirill Alshevsky has led his team to an unbeaten run of 9 matches in all competitions including winning their last 7 in a row. The Belarus Cup Final win over Dynamo Brest last weekend saw another trophy added to the club cabinet. The team sits proudly on top of the Belarusian top flight with a 1 point advantage over 2nd placed Torpedo Zhodino with a game in hand. It's hard to see anyone getting close to them at the moment.

Isloch had looked like they might be a surprise package this season but results have simmered out recently. Vitaliy Zhukovsky has witnessed his team struggle for consistency all season. It has now been two defeats in a row and even though a 1-0 loss away to Dinamo Minsk and a 2-1 defeat at home to Energetik-BGU might not have been completely unexpected it's still two league games lost in a row and that can have a hit on the mentality of the team. It's also 3 defeats in their last 4 league games having failed to scored in 2 of those games. Unless that attacking impotency is addressed in a big way then I can't see them troubling their hosts today.

If you're talking about games that will end in a business-like victory for one side then this is it. A 2-0 score-line sticks out for me in this one with BATE Borisov in the sort of form that gives you confidence backing them. Isloch might put up a fight but I get the impression that their self-belief has taken a knock. Teams can't afford to be at a loss of anything coming into a game like this. BATE should seal a comfortable and solid win.

BATE Borisov -1 @ 1.95 with SportNation

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.67 with William Hill

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Ruh Brest vs Dynamo Brest

The final game of proceedings in the Belarus Premier League throws up the Brest derby. Ruh Brest host Dynamo Brest in a 6pm BST kick-off coming live from the DASK Brestskiy Stadium. It is often said that form goes out of the window in a derby game but will that be the case here with the absence of fans as games continue to be played behind closed doors?

Ruh Brest currently sit in 8th place and are one of the division's form sides right now. It's now 7 games unbeaten for Aleksandr Sednyov's men. The only problem being that only 2 of those games have ended in victories. Drawing games is the problem and it's held this squad back from being positioned even further up the table. Even winning 2 of those 5 drawn games would have seen the club in 5th place. Cautious play is certainly one of the criticisms facing this team with them only managing to score more than one goal in just 1 of their 10 league games so far.

Dynamo Brest know this game will be a tough challenge but they'll be thanking their lucky stars that the fans are being kept away. What could potentially have been a daunting and hostile atmosphere is more subdued and could play into their hands. Syarhey Kavalchuk and his players are in 11th place and just 3 points above the relegation play-off position. The potential negative ramifications of a loss here could be huge. It's now back-to-back defeats in the league and another one here could be massively detrimental.

If I was to base my pick on the form book alone then I'd have to back Ruh Brest to get something from this game. However, there's a little more at play here. I am really concerned about Ruh Brest's attacking weaknesses. If you're struggling to score more than one goal in a game then it puts huge pressure on your defence. It might have held so far for Ruh Brest but it won't last forever. Dynamo Brest have the attacking prowess that can breach their opponents back-line and I think this could be the game where the better attack takes the victory.

Dynamo Brest to Win @ 2.00 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with Bet365

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First game in Belarus is Energetik v Vitebsk reffed by Vasilevich. No appeal in pens based on his stats and available prices. Cards wise he strikes me as a "bet high or don't bet" proposition,with a marked recent upward trend, played out in this and the reserve league (albeit a small sample size). Taken the following, all with Hills.

>65 points 29/20
>2 cards each team 19/10
>3 cards each team 13/2

There's currently a 59(!) point arb on bookings so you can buy at 61 or sell at 66. Somehow, neither proposition appeals in case he goes mad or has a quiet day. I'll therefore stick with the fixed odds bets.

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Second game is BATE v Isloch with Shcherbakov at the helm. Strong shout for pens here, even at the prices. Wouldn't normally go this high/short but with BATE such strong favourites there's a higher than average goals expectation. Also think that there's some merit in the card bet but it's a "Monks" bet (nice price, shame about the stake).

Buy pen goal mins at 21 with SPIN
Pen take at 21/10 Sky Bet
>50 booking points at 11/8 PP

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Posted (edited)

Last up it's the Brest derby with Rukh v Dinamo. (I've got a plethora of puns but I'm going to refrain from such behaviour today!) :$

No real history to this one with the hosts pretty much being a brand new club so bookings quotes in the 60s may be a touch excessive, especially with Tsinkevich in charge. He hardly every breaks 60 and if he does it usually entails a red or two being flashed. He very much knows where the penalty spot is though!

Sell bookings at 67 with SX
Buy pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN
Pen taken at 5/2 Sky bet

Edited by harry_rag
Inappropriate smiley!
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One more game to go in what has been a very good weekend so far. FC Minsk v Slutsk, reffed by Dolya. Looks like low cards and ok for pens.

Was going to take 8/5 for <50 with PP but they moved the line to <60 at 4/5. No great loss given the amount I'd have been allowed on and still a reasonable price. I've just taken 12/5 for <4 cards shown.

Dolya also a reasonable ref for pens although a bit inclined to award 2 or more in a game than spread them out. Given they hay I've been making in this market in this league, I've bought pen goal minutes at 14 with SPIN and had a saver (in case of a missed pen) on pen taken at 2/1 Hills. It's not the strongest game of the weekend for pens but I'd rather be on it than lose than swerve it and see it come in.

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