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Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 26th - 28th


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1 minute ago, Adryan871 said:

Individual. I try to bet only on games where average Elo bettwen 2 and 4 average difference is above 15. I want to see If is a pattern..

That's a sensible approach to have. Hope you stick around and keep posting your thoughts. Let us know if you pick up on any patterns. :ok

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Bundesliga and II Bundesliga

Borussia M.Gladbach have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 away matches in Bundesliga.
Bayern have scored at least 2 goals in 90% of their last 10 matches against Borussia Dortmund in all competitions.
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home matches in Bundesliga.
Werder Bremen have failed to win their last 10 home matches in Bundesliga.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Wolfsburg’s last 5 away games in Bundesliga.
Eintracht Frankfurt have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in Bundesliga.
Osnabrueck have failed to win their last 10 matches in Bundesliga II.
Greuther Fuerth have won their last 3 home matches against Osnabrueck in all competitions.
Sandhausen have failed to win their last 8 matches in Bundesliga II.

You can find interesting 40 Football Betting Streaks for 26.05.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-26-05-2020-18688

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3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

That's a sensible approach to have. Hope you stick around and keep posting your thoughts. Let us know if you pick up on any patterns. :ok

First thought was to play only those games with average Elo over 15 and odd over 2. But now i think i'll play games with Elo over 15 and odd below 2 as well. But for now this is a test.

IMG_20200519_174451.jpg

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eintracht frankfurt has had tough run of games and will be glad it's behind them. i think they could just edge this match. freiburg looked good in second half against werder bremen, dominating plenty of ball possession but just could get being bremen tight defense to score. i don't think that this match will go their way

werder bremen even though won last time they had 6 players at the back defending their one goal lead but still gave many opportunities away. i look at the table and think monchengladbach can get back in the mix for champions league places with a win here and they shouldn't miss an opportunity to bounce back here

i expect bayer leverkusen to win. they have look very good as a unit and proven it by winning their past two games. wolfsburg has only lost 1 out of 8 previous games and could be a challenge but i don't expect leverkusen to rest on their laurels and miss to bag three points having beaten their nearest monchengladbach rivals for those vital champions league positions

interesting game between leipzig and hertha berlin. hertha has been absolutely flying but they are scheduled to come down in this match. i can't see them marching on with such results and convictions, though they got ability to find a goal. leipzig needed to wake up after lackluster draw with freiburg and they did with werner scoring a hat trick. they should prove stronger and continue building on

i think augsburg is worth siding with having thumped below average looking schalke. they know these games are vital and i don't doubt their motivation and energy. they still need few wins to secure safety and they will want to get it done sooner rather than later. i expect them to come out in full confidence and force the game. paderborn drew past two but that doesn't suggest to me like they look anywhere close to winning.

cologne has had to riddiculus games. last time they came back from two goals down to draw and before that let two goals slip to also draw. hoffenheim has had slowest return to games than any other club but at least drew last time and is something to build one. i expect them to bite here and show strength to edge a home win

avoiding schalke for now, they are too unpredictable and on really bad run and not sure what to make of union berlin or mainz.

 

Edited by sajtion
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Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

 

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München

Borussia Dortmund

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Zagadou (13/1 d), Schulz (8/1 m), Reus (19/11 f, 2nd top scorer)

Suspended:

 

Bayern München

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Süle (8/0 d), Tolisso (13/1 m), Alcântara (23/3 m), Coutinho (22/8 m)

Suspended:

 

62% chance that Borussia Dortmund won't concede a goal in this game.
99% chance that Borussia Dortmund will score at least one goal in this game.
99% chance that Bayern München will score at least one goal in this game.
85% chance that Borussia Dortmund will score at least two goals in this game.
77% chance that Bayern München will score at least two goals in this game.
62% chance that Borussia Dortmund will score at least one goal in both halves.
85% chance that Bayern München will score at least one goal in both halves.
66% chance that Borussia Dortmund will lead at half-time against Bayern München.
93% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game.
85% chance that there will be more than 2 goals in this game.
73% chance that there will be more than 3 goals in this game.
23% chance that there will be more than 5 goals in this game.
85% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.
54% chance that there will be at least 2 goals in the first-half.

 

 

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg

 

 

Bayer Leverkusen

Doubtful: Tah (21/0 d), Volland (22/9 f, 2nd top scorer)

Out (injuries/other): L. Bender (17/2 m, captain)

Suspended:

 

VfL Wolfsburg

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Gerhardt (13/2 d), William (16/1 d), Paulo Otavio (5/0 d), Mehmedi (19/2 m), Guilavogui (22/0 m, captain), Karamoko (1/0 f), Camacho (0/0 m)

Suspended: Klaus (20/0 m)

 

85% chance that Bayer Leverkusen will score at least one goal in this game.
62% chance that Bayer Leverkusen will score at least two goals in this game.
73% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

The midweek fixtures in a domestic league are usually low key affairs used to fill up matches that need to be played. That's not quite the case in the Bundesliga with the 5:30pm BST kick-off this Tuesday coming from the Signal Iduna Park where the top two meet as Borussia Dortmund host Bayern Munich. The title won't get decided here but the result could have a big say on who goes on to win the championship.

Borussia Dortmund have started back after the suspension for COVID-19 very effectively. Head coach Lucien Favre's side have won both of their league games since returning with a 4-0 home win over Schalke followed up by a 2-0 victory away to Wolfsburg. Those wins have extended their winning streak in the league to 6 games. The team is just 4 points behind the pace of their opponents for this game. Scoring goals is certainly not a problem for Dortmund with the team having seen four or more goals scored in 9 of their last 14 league matches.

Bayern Munich continue to thrive under manager Hans-Dieter Flick. The league leaders have ensured their lead at the top hasn't been reduced by winning both of their games since the restart. A 2-0 win away to Union Berlin was as tough as it was to be expected and the 5-2 victory at home to Eintracht Frankfurt was probably easier than anticipated with the visitor's defensive mistakes gifting the 3 points to the hosts. Star striker Robert Lewandowski has continued where he left off with his scoring exploits bagging a goal in both matches to take his league tally to 27 goals now.

This fixture is historically packed with goals. Over 3.5 goals have been scored in all of the last 6 meetings between these two clubs. Bayern Munich sealed a convincing 4-0 win when the two sides met earlier in the season but Borussia Dortmund are looking in better form heading into this game. I'm not sure I can separate these two sides and even though it's always naive to bet against a Bayern Munich win in any game I feel Borussia Dortmund could get at least a draw here.

Borussia Dortmund Double Chance @ 2.07 with 888Sport

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 1.99 with VBet

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Bundesliga and II Bundesliga

Hoffenheim have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 home matches in Bundesliga.
Hertha Berlin are undefeated in their last 6 away matches in Bundesliga.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in FC Koln’s last 10 games in Bundesliga.
Schalke have failed to score in their last 5 away matches in Bundesliga.
Union Berlin have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in Bundesliga.
Hannover have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in Bundesliga II.
Bochum have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches in Bundesliga II.
Hannover have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches in Bundesliga II.
St. Pauli are undefeated in their last 6 home matches in Bundesliga II.

You can find interesting 33 Football Betting Streaks for 27.05.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-27-05-2020-18691

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I've placed a small bet on M'gladbach to win at Werder. The hosts have not looked particularly impressive since the restart and they were lucky to win at Freiburg. The visitors are in much better shape, even though they lost against a red-hot Bayer Leverkusen. I don't rate Werder's defence too highly - they had problems at Freiburg (who always find it hard to score - just 35 goals this season) and they will be in real trouble against M'gladbach (53 goals). Both sides should be motivated - Werder fighting against relegation and the visitors still have a decent chance of getting a CL spot.

Odds 1.8 with Pinnacle are good enough for a small bet.

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I've backed Dortmund in the big one .....  until UK football returns I'm just doing minimum stakes fun bets for a bit of interest in the outcome of matches that I'm watching or following online ..... and at minimum stakes there's not much point betting odds on

Also done a double on Leverkusen and Gladbach

And a four fold 'Over 1.5' goals on the 4 BL2 matches

all 3 bets pay about 5/2 to 11/4 so if one wins I'll come out a bit ahead

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Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach

One of the 7:30pm BST kick-offs from tonight's midweek schedule in the restarted Bundesliga has caught my eye and it's the clash between lowly Werder Bremen and high-flying Borussia Monchengladbach at the Weserstadion. These two sides could not be much further apart in the league and in terms of their own form so the odds on the away win are particularly tempting.

Werder Bremen come into this game in 17th place and head coach Florian Kohfeldt will feel his team might have shown signs of recovery in their 1-0 away win over Freiburg on the weekend. It was hardly a vintage display but it was a much-needed 3 points. The team remains 6 points adrift of safety and this is a step up in challenge by opposition. Home form is still a huge problem for Werder with the club having lost all of their last 7 home games in the league. Maybe a lack of pressure from a nervous home crowd could help their cause rather than hinder it?

Borussia Monchengladbach are sat in 5th place and just 1 point outside the Champions League qualification places. Marco Rose continues to impress as the head coach with the team having gone unbeaten in their last 4 away league games. The last three of those away games has seen them prevail victorious on each occasion scoring a total of 10 goals. The 3-1 loss at home to positional rivals Bayer Leverkusen was a shock to the system but let's hope it was more an off-day than a sign of a potential slump coming up.

The odds are enough to have me swaying towards an away win. Borussia Monchengladbach are a rabid beast on the road right now. The team is also unbeaten in their last 8 meetings with Werder Bremen. Results on the weekend have thrown a tiny spanner in the works but I still feel the price on the away victory is worth backing with the home side still yet to show me enough proof at home that they can escape relegation.

Borussia Monchengladbach to Win @ 1.80 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.60 with William Hill

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Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

Betting suggestion: 

  • Borussia Dortmund +0,75 @1,884 Pinnacle

Short preview: I started talking about Der Klassiker already in the last round, where especially Dortmund had a tough task to do when they faced Wolfsburg away and they finished their job perfectly. Unfortunately for them, Bayern extended the gap right after by beating Eintracht with 5-2, therefore the situation hasn't really changed as Dortmund have to do everything not to lose this derby. Unfortunately, they won't be able to count on the great support from the standings which would definitely make the "life heavier" for the opponent. Good news for BVB is that Hans-Dieter Flick can not count on Thiago Alcantara who is without a single doubt the most creative player in their team. Anyways, Thiago hasn't participated in the last match against Frankfurt either, and Bayern won with 5-2 and looked like if they play on 50%. That might sound like they are monstrous but it can also sound like they didn't really reach the highest level, or let's say performed as good as they can. Will they perform at their maximum today? If they will, I believe they will win this match, but at the same time, I have to point out that BVB played some very mature football in the last two matches. I expect Bayern to dominate and create a bit more chances, but for me this match simply looks match more equalized than the bookies are showing. If the home side scores first, I think Bavarians will find themselves in a very tough position as they will be forced to play a bit less cautious and that would be a perfect situation for BVB as they are simply dreadful on counters. Once again, I do believe Bayern is the better side at the moment, that they have simply more quality in the squad, but odds are in my opinion favorizing them too much, therefore the Asian handicap +0,75 which means we lose only half of the stake if Bayern wins with 1 goal difference represents value to me.

 

BVB will miss Zagadou, Schulz and Reus.

Bayern will miss Süle, Thiago, Tolisso, Coutinho.

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Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg

Betting suggestion:  

Short preview: If we take a look at the league table, we can notice those two teams really close to each other (4th vs 6th), but with 14 points gap, it's clearly visible that Leverkusen have a much better season than Wolfsburg. The same goes for the form after the lockdown, as Leverkusen won both matches with 7-2 goal difference, while VfL won once and lost once. They won away at Augsburg, while they lost again Dortmund last week. As I watched the match, I have to say that they started the match with too much respect and everything looked much better in the second half when they prepared some chances, but Dortmund was simply better and I expect nothing different this time when they will be hosted by probably the best "most in-form" team in Bundesliga at the moment. Leverkusen, especially with Kai Havertz on fire looks very prolific. At home, they simply have to get the job done. Wolfsburg will try to get their chances in their "physical" way, with strong, tall strikers like Weghorst and Ginczek, but with the performance, they showed against they didn't convince me and I think it won't be enough for current Leverkusen. Moreover they added some "missing players" on the list with Mehmedi and Klaus being unavailable for the manager. They might score as a product of a set-piece situation or simply an in-play cross, but I see Leverkusen scoring at least one more.

 

Leverkusen will miss Bender, Tah, Volland.

Wolfsburg is still without Gerhardt, William, Otavio, Mehmedi, Guilavogui, Karamoko, Camacho and Klaus. 

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11 hours ago, sajtion said:

shocking leverkusen result what happened? i hate seeing away teams outperform home sides and to concede four goals gtfo

Especially after they tore Borussia Monchengladbach apart away from home on the weekend. Some real curve balls being thrown at us in the Bundesliga at the moment.

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RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin

The 5:30pm BST kick-off in the Bundesliga today comes from the Red Bull Arena (no matter how many times I type that name it never gets easier to stomach!) where RB Leipzig will face Hertha Berlin. The home team have a chance to leap frog Borussia Dortmund into second place against an away side that still holds hopes of pushing for the European qualification spots.

RB Leipzig are progressing well under the young head coach Julian Nagelsmann in 3rd place. The team have returned to action after the suspension continuing their unbeaten run that they held before the break. A disappointing 1-1 draw at home to Freiburg in their first game back was built on with a pleasing 5-0 win away to Mainz 05. It's now 8 league games undefeated for this club. We can anticipate goals here because both sides have managed to score in 11 of the club's last 13 home league games this season.

Hertha Berlin sit in 11th place with aspirations of a late push to gate crash the Europa League qualification positions. Bruno Labbadia's men are currently 8 points off the pace but that could change after today and there is also the possibility that more European qualification spots could open up when the winners of the different cup competitions are decided. Labbadia only took charge of the team after the suspension kicked in and since they have returned it's been very positive stuff. A 3-0 win away to Hoffenheim was followed up by a 4-0 victory at home to Union Berlin.

Hertha Berlin are free-scoring at the moment and that's a worry for this RB Leipzig side that has a defence that can be best described as leaky. I completely understand why the bookies are backing a RB Leipzig win but the price is uncomfortably short. I can see Hertha Berlin pushing their opponents all the way in this game and I certainly expect us to see some goals scored today.

Hertha Berlin AH +1.5 @ 1.98 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.75 with Betway

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5 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Especially after they tore Borussia Monchengladbach apart away from home on the weekend. Some real curve balls being thrown at us in the Bundesliga at the moment.

yeah and despite all the time and wisdom shared on this form it's still difficult to get our head around this. i suppose we could put it down to leverkusen over exerting themselves in match versus monchengladbach and unable to perform with same energy, focus and intensity 3 days later. it's always wise to think when teams lose, they will be more dangerous in next game. i've now concluded that neither team in bundesliga can keep up the same level of performance when playing every three days. it's not like premier league and this is going to be common in next few weeks and something to be wary about.

there were many disappointments in last round of bundesliga. what a way for borussia dortmund to concede title. they didn't even turn up at all. i was waiting for them to improve in the second half but even that didn't happen. none of the teams did what they were supposed to do. they should have justified their odds as favorites so let's hope tonight's games are more on our wavelength

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6 minutes ago, sajtion said:

i suppose we could put it down to leverkusen over exerting themselves in match versus monchengladbach and unable to perform with same energy, focus and intensity 3 days later.

I think in this incident it's certainly the case. These teams are being asked to go from zero games being played to two a week. It's going to be a huge shock to the system.

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Union Berlin vs Mainz 05

The Bundesliga throws up a "relegation six-pointer", as the media loves to label it, in amongst the 7:30pm BST kick-offs this evening. It's Union Berlin versus Mainz 05 and with both teams hovering precariously above the relegation zone there's a feeling that both sides could really do with all 3 points here. Failure to take even a draw could have potentially disastrous consequences.

Union Berlin haven't exactly had the easiest of starts to their return to action after the league was suspended. Manager Urs Fischer had to lead his team out against league leaders Bayern Munich in their first game which they bravely lost 2-0 before a highly-intense Berlin derby against Hertha Berlin on the weekend where they suffered a 4-0 loss. Those back-to-back defeats now mean it's three league defeats in a row and four league games without a win leaving the team down in 13th place and just 6 points above the relegation play-off place. The saving grace for this side could be their ability to score goals at home. The team has managed exactly two goals in 6 of their last 9 home league games.

Mainz 05 come into this game in 15th place and just 3 points above Fortuna Dusseldorf who occupy the relegation play-off spot. If results go a certain way then Achim Beierlozer's men could find themselves dropping into the bottom three after the full-time whistles blow tonight. The club has failed to win either of their two league games since returning to action with a 2-2 draw away to FC Koln and then a 5-0 loss at home to RB Leipzig. The team has now won just 3 of their last 13 league games. This is also a team that has the worst defensive away record in the league having conceded 34 goals in their 14 away league games so far.

I think the key statistics here are Union Berlin's prowess in the final third at home this season and Mainz 05's shambolic defensive displays on the road. This alone gives the home team an advantage and with the ELO ratings heavily supporting the away side I have to go against those stats again to back the home win. I just think Union Berlin will see this game as a more stress-free game than the previous two matches and will be unleashed against a Mainz 05 team that will be mentally distraught after the weekend's hammering.

Union Berlin to Win @ 2.30 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.86 with Betfair

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20 hours ago, Trotter said:

I've backed Dortmund in the big one .....  until UK football returns I'm just doing minimum stakes fun bets for a bit of interest in the outcome of matches that I'm watching or following online ..... and at minimum stakes there's not much point betting odds on

Also done a double on Leverkusen and Gladbach

And a four fold 'Over 1.5' goals on the 4 BL2 matches

all 3 bets pay about 5/2 to 11/4 so if one wins I'll come out a bit ahead

all lost ........... 

Oh well, back in the saddle !

I'm covering all tonights games in BL1 and BL2 in doubles and trebles with 'Over 1.5' goals in two trebles and a 'Over 2.5' goals in a double in the Leipzig and Hoffenheim games

minimum stakes!

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Based on ref Welz's stats the first game I had to look at today was Dusseldorf v Schalke. This season and last he average 54.44 points over 18 games that saw 10 red cards and 12 penalties. Looks like he was out of favour for a while (only 6 top flight games in the previous 2 seasons) and has come back all buns glazing (as the saying doesn't go)!

>40 points 13/10 PP and a red card at 17/4 888

Buy pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN and back pen taken at 9/4 Hills.

May be tempted by a spread play on bookings but waiting for SX to put prices up.

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Leipzig v Hertha Berlin

Betting suggestion:  

Short preview: I had those suggestions ready already yesterday but seeing Leverkusen failing against Wolfsburg at home, I thought odds might raise a bit and that’s what happened. Leipzig is entering this match from the 3rd position with 3 points less than 2nd Dortmund and 1 more than Gladbach and Leverkusen. As mentioned, Leverkusen lost yesterday, while Gladbach got only 1 point against Werder Bremen, and with the known defeat of Dortmund on Der Klassiker, Leipzig has great chances to equalize the number of points with Dortmund. As Jose Mourinho was used to say, Leipzig is a team with extremely solid bench, and with a great coach as Nagelsmann definitely is, they are capable of changing the rhythm of the game enormously with substitutions. We’ve seen this team playing at a really high level before the “corona-break” and what changed? Well, they got players like Upamecano and Kampl back available, and even though Ampadu, Konate, Poulsen are out, and Laimer picked up a smaller injury against Mainz and probably won’t start, they have Werner back scoring, Kampl returned after longer-term injury and shown a top performance on both matches and I think that even though Hertha won first two matches against Hoffenheim and Union Berlin with 0-3 and 4-0 and looks very positive after Labbadia took over. One of the best individuals is the recent signing from Leipzig, Matheus Cunha, and will be surely extra motivated today. Besides him, it looks that the veteran Ibisević “kicked out” Piatek from the position of lone striker but we might see both of them on the pitch today. Of course, everything will depend on the result but I can not see Hertha keeping another clean sheet. Leipzig is one of the teams that can attack with several different approaches and it will be very tough to defend without a mistake for the opponent. Both sides in a good form, both like to attack and even though I expect to see both sides scoring, I expect Leipzig to score at least three as usual at their Red Bull Arena.

Leipzig will miss Ampadu, Konate and Poulsen.

Hertha is coming without Stark, Rekik, Ascacibar, and suspended Kalou.

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On a less exciting note, I've backed the 4-6 cards doubles and treble on the games at Leipzig, Berlin and Augsburg. Odds are 9/5, 11/8 and 23/20 and all are closer to coin tosses in my opinion, given the ref stats.

This is a market where the pricing is fairly standard and if you backed the middle band blindly you'd lose money (as with high or low). It's my belief (and one I aim to take a closer look at) that, done selectively, you can show a profit by backing 4-6 cards at odds against.

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Dusseldorf v Schalke.

From what I saw of Schalke at the weekend, they are a very poor side who seem to be in complete freefall. I expect the home side to score at least once here but they have a habit of throwing away decent leads in the second half so with that in mind I've put a small stake on the half time result.

Dusseldorf Half Time @ 3.25 - 0.5pt.

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