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Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd May

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Flemington and Randwick are the two meetings of focus this Saturday with selections in 6 races from Flemington and 5 from Randwick. Both venues look set to have testing ground as there has been plenty of rain around.

Flemington R1 (2.40am)

Ex UK horse Starcaster was well fancied at Sandown last time after his debut win in Australia at Geelong on his previous start. He never got involved that day though and the jockey reported he didn't handle the ground. The concern has to be that it is likely to be heavy ground again tomorrow and for that reason I am happy to oppose him. There are two I like here though and I will be splitting stakes on both of them.

Yonkers was a horse I put up last time and he just won at Randwick 3 weeks ago. He did have the option of staying in Sydney so it is interesting that Waller is sending him to Melbourne. He's never been over this far, but he does look like he will stay and he won on heavy ground earlier in the year at Canterbury. He looks to have a cracking chance in this.

Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody started training again earlier this month after giving up a few years back and Shepard was his first horse back when he won at Ballarat. This is a step up in grade, but looks a very progressive horse. The only time he has finished out of the frame in 7 starts was 1st up at Sandown in February. That win last time can on a Heavy 8 so we know he handles a wet track. The time before he was 2nd to Starcaster, but I do think he can reverse the form especially with track conditions being the way they are,

Yonkers @ 3/1 with everyone

Sheppard @ 3/1 with William Hill

Flemington R4 (4.30am)

Alfa Oro is stepping up to a Saturday Metro race for the first time, but he certainly deserves a chance giving how progressive he has looked this prep. He ran a couple of times as a 2yo in 2018, but he wasn't seen again until last month. It was a good reappearance on a heavy track at Pakenham when he finished 2nd. The last twice he has been very impressive in his victories again both at Pakenham. All 3 wins have been over 1200m, but the 1000m trip shouldn't be an issue and he has a lovely draw as it is highly likely you want to be drawn high down the straight track.

Alfa Oro @ 5/4 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (5.45am)

Milwaukee would have been the pick here if we had been looking at a quicker surface, but he has been unplaced on all 3 starts on a heavy track which is a big concern. He does have a cracking record down the straight here though and over this trip here he has only been out of the frame once in 7 starts for 3 wins. He does have a good draw.

The two I like though are Miss Iano and Haunted. The former has a good drwaw in 14 and is good on a heavy track as well having won twice and finished 2nd once in 5 starts. She was an eye-catcher last time at Warrnambool finishing fast to come 4th in a Listed Race. She was a very good 3rd over 1100m here during the Melbourne Cup Carnival and 1200m is her trip as all but 2 of her 8 wins have come over this distance. I think she has a great chance and well no doubt be flying late.

Haunted is the other one I like. He was made plenty of use of over 1400m at Morphettville last month and he didn't see the trip out. His run over 100m here in February was a good one and then at Mornington he was way too far back and wasn't ever in a winning position, but he finished well. He has won on a heavy track before so there are no issues on that front although I am slightly concerned about his draw in 3. 

Miss Iano e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill & Betfred

Haunted @ 5/1 with Bet365

Flemington R7 (6.25am)

Interesting race this. Ex Irish horse Masaff ran well on his first start for Chris Waller although a heavy track is an unknown as he didn't even run on it in Ireland. It was a very good debut though over a trip too short and I suspect the 1800m might be on the short side as well, but the long straight at Flemington will help. Another Waller runner Nobu was a horse I put up last time Caulfield and I am certain he is ready to win. He ran well given the ground at Caulfield as he does look better on better ground, but he stayed on well from the back to finish 3rd to Shot Of Irish. I just think he will struggle to win a race on heavy ground though. Aussie Nugget was tempting as he was 2nd in the same race Nobu was 3rd in and he came from a long way back as well. That was a solid first run in testing ground.

The one I have come down on though is Duke Of Plumpton. I put him up at Sandown when he was 2nd to Shot Of Irish, but he couldn't run him down, just as Aussie Nugget and Nobu couldn't do at Caulfield. This horse loves a wet track as he showed in New Zealand and I think there is more to come from him. He was poor on his only start over this trip so far, but that came at the end of his prep in New Zealand and there is every chance he was over the top by then. He certainly looks like he should have no issues about the 1800m trip.

Duke Of Plumpton @ 11/4 with everyone

Flemington R8 (7.05am)

A good race this and Shot Of Irish certainly deserves his chance in an open handicap after his two wins as mentioned above. He loves a wet track and his win at Caulfield was his 5th win from 7 starts on a heavy track. He is clearly going to be a big player here, but I am going to take him on. Last seasons German Derby 2nd Django Freeman makes his Australian debut and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I suspect he might need it as well as a mile being on the sharp side.

I am going to back two here though. Just like Shot Of Irish, So Si Bon has won his last two races. He had become very hard to win with, but dropping down in class he has managed to find his form again. He was especially impressive at Caulfield last time on a Heavy 8 when he bolted up and it could have been by further. If he is in the same form he must surely go very close.

The other one I like is Pacodali who is a G3 winning having won the Eclipse at Sandown in November. I thought he ran a big race at the same venue on his return to action earlier in the month. That came over 1400m and he's never won over that short a trip. He recorded some good final splits that day and I do like the race from a form perspective. Up in trip 2nd up (he has good 2nd up stats) and he should be capable of going well.

So Si Bon @ 15/4 with Betfair

Pacodali e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places as most are as there are set to be 17 runners, but just a reminder in Australia they only ever pay 3 places so Bet365 would just be 3 places)

Flemington R9 (7.38am)

Hilo and The Astrologist stand out for me in the finale. Hilo has been very consistent up in Sydney this prep winning 1 and then finishing 3rd on his other 3 starts. One of those 3rds was on heavy ground and the form around him in those contests is strong. The front 3 pulled clear of the rest 3 weeks ago at Randwick as well. No reason why he shouldn't run well here and his high draw is another plus.

Another with a good draw is The Astrologist and he looks to have a very good chance. He was off for nearly a year before he returned 2 weeks ago at Caulfield when he flew home to finish 3rd over 100m in heavy ground. Up in trip here on ground he clearly enjoys and I think he looks capable of going very close.

Hilo @ 15/4 with Betfair

The Astrologist @ 4/1 with William Hill

Randwick R1 (2.30am)

Chris Waller is pretty keen on Overlord's chances here and so am I. He could do with jumping better than he did here a couple of weeks ago and he was still in last with 400m to go. He flew though and recorded the 2nd best last 200m of the day. He finished his race off well on debut also so clearly going up to 1300m looks perfect for him. His breeding suggests he should relish a wet track and he should be able to reverse form with Peltzer at these weights.

Overlord @ 9/4 with William Hill

Randwick R4 (4.15am)

New Arrangement is an ex James Tate runner who has done well on his last two starts to finish 3rd both times. He didn't get the best of runs on either occasion and does look like he is ready to win. The issue for me though is the ground, because I am not sure he wants it testing. His wins in the UK were on firm at Bath and on the AW. He's had one start on a heavy track and was unplaced. If he handles it though it is hard not to see him going close.

My selection though is Loveseat who didn't have the race run to suit last. She only had 1 behind her at the 400m marker and then didn't get a clear run late on. That was over 1800m and given she has won over 2400m going up to 2000m on her 4th run of the prep should be ideal. Hopefully she will get a stronger pace to aim at here to help her as well. She has won on a heavy track so we know that wont be an issue.

Loveseat @ 9/2 with Betfair

Randwick R6 (5.30am)

Miss Einstein was so unlucky when I put her up a couple of weeks ago and she has to be backed again to win this. She was an eyecatcher 1st up at Rosehill when finishing well to get 5th and then at Randwick she had no luck at all. I reckon she would have got up when she got checked 50m from home. It was still a top effort and the extra 100m wont do any harm. She won on a Heavy 10 at Wawick Farm 3rd up last prep and although it probably wont be quite a Heavy 10 it will still be similar conditions 3rd up this time around.

Declan Carroll trained Greek Hero in the UK and he won 3 times over here including at Musselburgh off 78 on his final start in October. He won at Kembla Grange on his first start in Australia a couple of weeks and was well backed to do so has well. Plenty went wrong in that race as well given he over raced and had no cover. He showed guts to see it out as well which was good to see. Given he handled soft well over here a heavy track in Australia shouldn't be an issue. He is entered on Sunday at Nowra as well so we will have to wait until tonight to see if he is taken out of this all not, but he is worth a saver e/w if he turns up in this.

Miss Einstein @ 11/5 with Bet365

Greek Hero e/w 17/2 with Unibet

Randwick R8 (6.50am)

I put up Dealmaker as a cracking e/w bet a couple of weeks ago and he flew home to record the quickest 200m of the meeting to just be denied. That was frustrating and the fact he has only won twice in 24 starts is a concern given he has finished 2nd 6 times and 3rd 6 times, but I have to be with him again here. He is clearly in fantastic form and he handles a heavy track as well so hopefully he can get that 3rd win he deserves. He's not quite an e/w price here, but I still think there is enough juice in it to back him.

Dealmaker @ 9/2 with Betfair

 

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Randwick and Bordeaux early in the day

Loads of American stuff later:ok
 

Lucky 15 @ betvictor

455 Rn: Southern Lad 6/4
650 Rn: Redouble 4/1
1145 Bd: No Turning 7/4
117 Bd: Influx 11/8
 

EW bets @ bet365
530 Rn: Come Along 10/1
730 Rn: Lisdoonvarna 12/1
337 Bd: Pedraza Lescribaa 9/1
 

Have a nice weekend:)

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Good to see a Twitter follower was on the ball clearly there are only 10 previews there as I missed one of the Randwick previews out so here it is.

Randwick R5 (4.55am)

Godolphin's Coruscate is the pick for me in this contest. He has had his last 3 races in Victoria winning the first of them at Bendigo and then finishing 3rd and 2nd at Caulfield. The last of those came a couple of weeks ago and I think both of those races look good from a form perspective. The horse he beat at Bendigo has done well since as well. He has finished 2nd in both starts on heavy ground including at Caulfield last time. The market has it as a bit of a match between him and Southern Lad and he is the biggest danger. He ran well at Wagga on his first start this prep, but his 2nd up record isn't as good as his first up record and that is a big concern. Ground wont be an issue and he will go close, but I favour Coruscate at the prices.

Coruscate @ 11/5 with Betfred

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I have been trying the American racing during lockdown and finding it difficult to obtain the detailed form information I require for my approach at times. I have settled on selectively following the At The Races form verdict opinions where I find I can agree. Not following the selections blindly but rating 6 or  7 filters and converting them to odds to compare with the early betting market.

Gulfstream (going forecast Fs) 21.52

ATR form verdict used for comparison. Malibu Max has been running well in better races of late so has to be considered, but FRONT LOADED got within a nose of success here two weeks ago and has every chance if handling the extra furlong. Examiner is another to note.

Top Tip: FRONT LOADED (7)
Watch out for: MALIBU MAX (1)

I found that I support their three named runners in this case.

1. Malibu Max - rates 20 = 3/1 my fair odds (7/4 early mkt)

6. Examiner - rates 11 = 12/1 (13/2)

7. Front Loaded - rates 25 = 7/4 (2/1)

Selection is Front Loaded preferred to Malibu Max at the early market prices.

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GP. 952. My Friend Flavin  25/1.    Unpl.

GGF. 1022  Six Point Rack  8/1.    Unpl.

  SA.  1145. Biddy Duke. 8/1.    1st

               Ew's. 

 

Edited by Nigwilliam
Result

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Saturday / Sunday 🇺🇸 Heinz

600 C.Downs - Golden Notion 8/11 1st

921 Gulf - Mystical Moon 10/3. 2nd

935 S.Anita - Liar Liar 6/4

1039 S.Anita - Cistron 15/8

105 G.G.Fields - Mylittlerunaway 9/4. 1st

134 C.Town - Dust To Diamonds 2/1 1st

like a kid in a sweet shop with too much choice ended up losing a bit , slap across the knuckles time ☹️

Edited by calva decoy
Results update

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Something interesting may be going on in the 17.27 at Angers . May be nothing but 

DYLABAN  is 13/2 with paddy power 

6/1 with coral

9/1 with hills 

and a massive 14/1 with B365

Be interesting to see what happens 

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Tampa Bay    5.35    Fried Plantaine                4/1ew
Tampa Bay    6.08    Burning Bright                 6/4
Tampa Bay    6.38    Donnie Brasco                2/1
Tampa Bay    7.08    Vivamente                       5/2
Tampa Bay    7.40    Big Liz                           15/8
Tampa Bay    8.11    Cultural Mandate            9/2ew
Tampa Bay    8.43    Real Estate Mogul        10/1ew
Tampa Bay    8.43    Talk To The Media          6/1ew
Tampa Bay    9.15    Betweenhereandcool    13/8
Tampa Bay    9.47    Hey Sach                      20/1ew
Tampa Bay    9.47    Appraised                      11/4

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3 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Something interesting may be going on in the 17.27 at Angers . May be nothing but 

DYLABAN  is 13/2 with paddy power 

6/1 with coral

9/1 with hills 

and a massive 14/1 with B365

Be interesting to see what happens 

Well that was a disaster . Backed down to fav and not even close . At the price available I had to take it as a nap . Wasted opportunity I'm afraid. 

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Tampa Bay    5.35    Fried Plantaine                  4/1ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    6.08    Burning Bright                   6/4-----------1st 4/5 fav
Tampa Bay    6.38    Donnie Brasco                  2/1-----------1st 9/4
Tampa Bay    7.08    Vivamente                         5/2-----------2nd 9/4
Tampa Bay    7.40    Big Liz                             15/8-----------3rd 7/4 fav
Tampa Bay    8.11    Cultural Mandate               9/2ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    8.43    Real Estate Mogul          10/1ew--------lost
Tampa Bay    8.43    Talk To The Media            6/1ew--------1st 11/2
Tampa Bay    9.15    Betweenhereandcool      13/8-----------1st 5/2
Tampa Bay    9.47    Hey Sach                        20/1ew--------lost
Tampa Bay    9.47    Appraised                        11/4------------lost

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