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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > May 20th - 23rd

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There is hardly any time to breathe with the Belarus Premier League matches beginning early on Wednesday this week. Check out the odds and ratings above. I'll look to cover most of these matches again this week because interest remains high from you all. :ok

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8 hours ago, allyhibs said:

Dinamo Brest v BATE.

It's pretty straightforward here I think, no real need for much reasoning, BATE should be odds on.

BATE @ 2.00 - 2pts.

BATE -1 @ 4.00 - 0.5pt.

Cup final on Sunday against the same opponents, perhaps merits a slight note of caution.

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Dynamo Brest vs BATE Borisov

The warm-up for this weekend's Belarus Cup is up first in the league fixtures this week when Dynamo Brest play BATE Borisov in a 5pm BST kick-off at the DASK Brestksiy Stadium. As @harry_rag rightly states, there needs to be some careful thought into this game because the two meet twice within the space of a few days so players might be rested or suffer fatigue.

Dynamo Brest are in 7th place and a lack of consistency has been their biggest enemy so far this season. Manager Syarhey Kavalchuk will want his team to improve on this because they are now 6 points off the title pace set by their opponents for this game. The odds of this Dynamo side defending their title are decreasing with every defeat. Dynamo suffered a 2-1 loss away to Energetik-BGU last weekend. It was a loss that put an end to a positive pair of results in back-to-back wins versus Belshina and Dinamo Minsk. The encouraging news is that the team have now scored in 7 of their last 9 league games. If you're scoring goals then you always have a chance of winning. They just need to tighten up at the back.

BATE Borisov find themselves looking like champions-in-the-making with every passing week. Kirill Alshevsky's men have now won 5 games in a row in all competitions as part of an unbeaten run of 7 matches. The team is now top of the table in the Belarus Premier League and a win would move them 4 points clear at the summit as they look to regain their league title. BATE have scored a staggering 17 goals in their last 7 league matches. It's tough to see anyone stopping them right now.

I'm wondering how both teams will approach this game with the cup final on Sunday. I think Dynamo Brest will be desperate to win a trophy with their league title looking in doubt. That being said, a win here and on Sunday would see them close the gap on the league leaders to potentially just 3 points with a cup in their trophy cabinet. This is an example of how thin the lines between success and failure are in football. BATE could also walk away with the cup on Sunday and seal a win here that moves them 9 points clear of Dynamo in the league. I think that outcome is more realistic. BATE look irresistible right now and above Evens are odds I'm willing to back them on at the moment.

BATE Borisov to Win @ 2.17 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.90 with Sportingbet

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Today's ref Kulbakov has a solid low to middle average albeit with a slight upward trend. I've backed the following:

4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Hills, <60 points at 5/4 Sky Bet and <5.5 cards shown at 23/20 Sporting Bet (latter bet mainly due to limit on the <60 bet though it could win with 4 or 5 yellows and a red where <60 would lose).

If you had backed <60 points and 4-6 cards in Kulbakov's last 35 top flight games you would only have had one game where both bets lost (the 85 last time out). 21 games would have seen 1 bet win (enough for profit) and 13 games both. Tempted to sell at 60 but I'll make do with the fixed odds interest.

Nothing special about the ref's penalty stats so it's no bet for me at the prices on offer. If anything, 1/2 about no penalty being taken would be the value bet.

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BATE might win - they probably will - but it's a no bet for me. At home they've been very strong, but away they've looked vulnerable all season and their form is poor. Shipping 3 to Smolevitchi in their last away fixture must give Brest confidence they can get something out of this game. Best of luck though to all the BATE backers :ok

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

2 goalscorer bets that look reasonably priced; Savitski 10/3 and Nekhajchik 3/1 both with Paddy.

I won't do the joke about whether or not anyone was tempted to back the hosts to master BATE! :unsure

 

There's a joke in there somewhere involving Brest and Slutsk 🙂

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Neman Grodno vs Torpedo Zhodino

The second day of matches in this weekend's extended Belarus Premier League games comes at 5pm BST when Neman Grodno host Torpedo Zhodino at the Neman Stadium. It's simply a case of the home side looking to pull off a shock win here against a visiting team that have their sights set firmly on the top spot. Who will prevail victorious in this clash?

Neman Grodno's season is rapidly turning into a bit of a disappointment. Igor Kovalevich had high hopes of taking this team to an improved league position on last season's 9th placed finish. Unfortunately, it's now just 1 win in their last 6 league games with back-to-back defeats to BATE Borisov and Ruh Brest. The team is positioned dangerously above the drop zone in 14th place and with the prospect of a relegation play-off becoming more likely with each passing week, the time is running out to start picking up the wins. 7 goals conceded in their last two league games is a worry.

Torpedo Zhodino are experiencing contrasting fortunes to their opponents for today's game. The team is in 2nd place and could move to within 1 point of top spot if they earn a win here. Yuri Puntus has led his side to an unbeaten run of 6 league matches. It's a stretch of results that has seen the team keep four clean sheets. However, they have also failed to score in three of those games so the attacking side of their play can be a little hit and miss.

This game is stacked against the home team. Neman Grodno are going through a barren spell with 3 defeats from their last 4 games. Torpedo Zhodino are improving as the season goes on and have become a very difficult side to beat. Torpedo have lacked consistency on the road but right now I'd back them to beat any team that's struggling for form like Neman.

Torpedo Zhodino to Win @ 2.45 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.45 with Betfair

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Win single on Torpedo ..... 13/10 Unibet

Although they haven't scored many goals in total they have scored 5 and  3 in two of their last three games whilst the home team have conceeded 3 and 4 in their last two games

I guess we all know that the Belarus games are Live on YouTube ....... I'l probably just watch the second half

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"Neckerchief" anytime pulled my proverbials out of the fire yesterday. Nearly got away with 6 cards even though they'd arrived before the hour mark. 7th came in added time though.

Today we have Neman Grodno v Torpedo Zhodino reffed by Chistov. I'm almost drawn into <60 at 11/10 PP and a sell at 64 with SPIN but the steep upward curve on his totals this season puts me off. Feels like a game where those bets will win if there's no red card but lose if there is. His overall pen stats are not that compelling but you can't ignore 6 this season where 5 came in one game! {8 Fixed odds prices poor but I've bought pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN (17 to buy elsewhere).

Will look at goalscorers as line ups are confirmed.

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Slavia Mozyr vs FK Gorodeya

 

Slavia Mozyr

Doubtful: Chukhley (4/2 d, top scorer), Melnikov (7/2 f, top scorer), Shevchenko (5/0 d)

Out (injuries/other):

Suspended: Malkevich (6/0 d)

 

FK Gorodeya

Doubtful: A. Arhipov (2/0 f), Shibun (8/0 m)

Out (injuries/other): Usenya (7/0 d)

Suspended: Sazanovich (9/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics
58% chance that there will be a draw at half-time.
35% chance that there will be a draw at half-time and draw at full-time.

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Slavia Mozyr vs Gorodeya

The Belarus Premier League gives us two games today with the first of those matches kicking off at 4pm BST when Slavia Mozyr welcome Gorodeya to the Junactva Stadium. These two sides are only separated by their goals scored in the league table with both clubs loitering just above the relegation zone on 11 points with a -4 goal difference but can either side take the win here?

Slavia Mozyr are in 12th place heading into this game and will be keen to get back to winning ways in order to move away from the relegation play-off place. It's been just 1 win in their last 7 matches across all competitions. Home form hasn't even been a salvation for Mihail Martsinovich's men with the club failing to win any of their last 3 matches on home turf this season. Scoring goals has fast become a big worry for this team with them failing to hit the back of the net in 3 of their last 4 league fixtures.

Gorodeya find themselves just one place behind their opponents for this game with the same goal difference. However, Oleg Radushko's side have scored 4 goals less than Slavia Mozyr before this game. It's a concerning statistic given that I just mentioned Slavia Mozyr's problems with scoring goals. Gorodeya are now without a win in 4 league matches. The ray of hope comes in the fact that the team has only suffered 1 loss from their last 4 away matches. Don't expect a classic thriller here though because only 1 of the team's last 9 league games has witnessed 3 or more goals scored.

Well, as I mention, this game will likely be a dull affair. Neither side is firing on much self-confidence right now. Scoring goals has become a problem and laborious performances are preventing them from getting positive results. I think this game could go either way but I'm willing to follow the ELO ratings and back Gorodeya to get something in a match against a Slavia Mozyr team that aren't giving me any belief that they can score enough goals to win this game... but then my faith in Gorodeya isn't exactly brimming either. Maybe both teams should agree a 0-0 draw and just save us all the pain?

Draw @ 3.40 with Sportingbet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.57 with Coral

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Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Belshina

The second match in today's Belarus Premier League schedule is the clash between title-chasers Shakhtyor Soligorsk and bottom-placed Belshina in a 6pm BST kick-off at the Stroitel Stadium. It's hard to see this game ending in any other way than a win for the home team but will a delve into the facts and stats for this fixture reveal the potential for a different outcome?

Shakhtyor Soligorsk are in 5th place and a win in this game would move them to within 4 points of league leaders BATE Borisov. Yuriy Vernydub will still demand more from his team after their 3rd placed finish last season but after 3 wins from their last 4 league matches this is a Shakhtyor side that is beginning to build up a head of steam. The most impressive factor in Shakhtyor's season so far is that they have kept 7 clean sheets in their 9 league matches. This defence just keeps on churning out the performances and that makes backing the win to nil outcome even more tempting.

Belshina continue to struggle to survive in this division. Dmitri Migas has been put in caretaker charge of the club as the owners look to find a new direction to stay up. The club is rock bottom in the league with just 3 points and yet to record a win league this season. Eduard Gradoboev deserves credit for his work with the side but it's clear he wasn't able to take them further. It had reached a stage where the team had lost 3 of their last 4 league games. It's now 4 away league games without a win. Things aren't looking good for the top flight new boys.

Well, what else is there to say? Belshina showed some fight in their 1-1 draw at home to Vitebsk but can they transfer that into an away display against this resilient Shakhtyor side? I can't see it. If ever there was a game that I'd back for the home side to seal a 2-0 business-like win over their opponents then this would be it. If the home side don't seal a comfortable win then I'll be shocked.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk to Win to Nil @ 1.85 with Coral

Shakhtyor Soligorsk HT/FT @ 1.85 with Coral 

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69th minute penalty makes for a profitable day yesterday.

First game today is Slavia Mozyr v Gorodeya reffed by Gorayutin. His card average is moderate overall but on an upward trajectory. His totals have been 60, 85 and 125 this season but those last two games are the only red cards in my sample going back 33 games. I think the cards expectation is a bit over-inflated for this game so I'm taking a "sell hype" stance and hoping I don't end up getting burned! He's a reasonable prospect for pens.

Sell bookings at 70 with SPIN and back <60 points at 6/4 Skybet
Buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN and back pen taken at 11/4 and 2+ taken at 28/1 Skybet

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The other game is Soligorsk v Belshina with Lashuk in charge. Not enough to go on with him from a cards perspective (only handled 2 top flight games) so I'll swerve that though I'd go low at the prices if I had a free bet to burn (59 to sell). His overall stats certainly suggest he knows where the penalty spot is but 18 seems a high price to buy at so I'll probably swerve that.

Penalty taken at 9/4 Skybet

Penalty taken double with above game at 11/4 and 9/4

A muggy £1 double on 2+ pens taken at 28/1 and 20/1!

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FC Slutsk vs Ruh Brest

OK, so there's a bit of confusion surrounding the 12pm BST kick-off between Smolevichi and FC Minsk. Some sources are suggesting it's postponed which would make sense after FC Minsk players tested positive for coronavirus but then bookies are still offering odds. I'll leave it this week to be safe and focus the first preview on the 2:30pm BST kick-off between FC Slutsk and Ruh Brest that's taking place at the Haradski Stadium.

FC Slutsk are in 5th place and just 6 points off the pace of the top with a game in hand but it's now back-to-back defeats for Vitaliy Pavlov and his players. Maybe we shouldn't look too deeply into those losses because they came against the impressive opposition of Energetik-BGU and BATE Borisov. Those two losses ended an unbeaten run of 5 league matches and also saw the team surrender their spot at the summit. How can they handle this new poor run of consecutive league losses?

Ruh Brest will provide stern opposition here with Aleksandr Sednyov's men just 3 points behind their opponents for today's game in 8th position. The side is now unbeaten in their last 6 matches and has kept 4 clean sheets during that spell. This is a Brest team that knows how to grind out results on the road with 4 of their last 5 away league games producing one goal or less.

Right, so don't expect a thriller here. The hosts are slightly low of confidence after two defeats in a row and they're playing a visiting side that have built their recent positive run of form around a tight defensive unit. I can see this being a game where both sides cancel each other out. The ELO ratings are backing a home win but just like the Gorodeya ratings earlier this weekend I feel we need to consider the opposition they played. I'm backing a draw. Going to take a huge risky punt and back a 0-0 draw too.

Draw @ 3.20 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 0.5 @ 8.50

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Isloch vs Energetik-BGU

The second game (or is it third?! We just don't know! :lol) in the Belarus Premier League today is the 4:30pm BST kick-off between Isloch and Energetik-BGU coming live from the Traktar Stadium. Both of these teams are vying for the top spot and a win here would do their chances of putting more pressure on league leaders BATE Borisov the world of good. Can either side come away with all 3 points though?

Isloch are in 6th place and come into this game with just 2 losses from their last 3 league games. Vitaliy Zhukovsky is doing a sterling job with this side to see them currently meet expectations but it feels like they still have more to give. The problem for them has been getting points on the road. So far this season all of their 15 points have been earned at home having won 5 of their 6 home league games thus far.

Energetik-BGU are just above their opponents for this game in the table in 3rd place and would move within 1 point of the top spot if they win this game. Vladimir Belyavskiy knows his team face a tough challenge in this one. However, they won't be short of self-belief with three consecutive wins in their bag. That includes winning their last two away league games.

This is a tricky one to call given the away side's recent run of results. Isloch are undoubtedly firm favourites and I was swaying towards a home win. I am still tempted by the draw but think the slight favour being shown by the ELO ratings to back the home victory is enough to make my mind up. Energetik-BGU have lost 3 of their last 4 meetings in this fixture too.

Isloch to Win @ 2.70 with Betway

BTTS @ 1.66 with Bet365

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20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

3 goalscorers that appeal. Chukhley 23/4 888, Sajcic 11/2 SX and Sorokin 10/1 SX.

:ok Chukhley scores a 61st minute penalty, which is nice when (as per the previous post) when you've bought penalty goal minutes.

I'll spare you the long version of my joke about his almost telepathic on-field relationship with his brother Barry. Suffice to say, the punchline is "to me, to you, to me..." :eyes

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