what about Backtesting?

[Rey86]

hey everyone

i just came across this term Backtesting

 

google says : 

 

Backtesting is the process of evaluating a sports betting strategy based on relevant historical data. This same technique can be applied to cryptocurrency, forex, and stock trading.

Backtesting lets you simulate what would happen if you use a strategy over a certain sample size. When done correctly, this technique helps you determine the success of your strategy.

 

is there a way to use it in order to make predictions?

[TheLoneBettor]

Hi Ray,

Predictions? I see the word 'PREDICTIONS' as an almost guarantee. But not quite. I hypocritically use the word but it seems to have a dimension of it's own.

You can certainly use back-data to almost predict the future. But only if you have faith in what you have brought about and what you think should happen next.

For example - If a trainer has a strike rate of let's say 25% of runners win at a certain track over the last few years, with an ROI of 15%, then this must be a good thing.

So back-testing has played it's part here. It's up to you now to see if this carries on.

Are you willing to risk hard earned money to carry on the trend? As predictions go there is no crystal ball, only belief and confidence.

Stats are stats and over time you will see which ones work and which don't.

So from my point of view, "Is there a way to use it in order to make predictions?" The answer is YES.

A good betting bank, total dedication, knowledge in what you are doing and confidence will take you a step closer to the dimension of predictability.

Regards

 

 

[agourbet]

Backtesting is the way to check if your assumptions are true(your theory works) for a specific period in time.Professionals use it in order to check if their strategy was working in the past. So if it was working they assume that it will work in the future,but there is no guarantee about it.