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Premier League Predictions > May 8th - 10th


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FC Slutsk vs Energetik-BGU

The Belarus Premier League action kicks off this weekend with league leaders FC Slutsk hosting close rivals Energetik-BGU in a 3pm BST kick-off from the Haradski Stadium. The home team will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table with a victory here but face a team that are looking to bounce back after a sticky patch that has seen them fallen slightly off the pace of the top spot.

FC Slutsk are riding high in the top flight of Belarusian football right now. Vitaliy Pavlov's men are in 1st place with 16 points from their opening 7 league games. The team possesses a 2 point lead over 2nd placed Torpedo Zhodino. 5 wins from their last 6 league matches has helped spur them up the table and turn them into the early pace makers of this season. Their attacking prowess has seen them through to this stage with a league high 14 goals scored. The lack of a clean sheet so far this season is something for them to work on but they will have little care for that right now with so many players getting on the score sheet.

Energetik-BGU just won't go away. The team is now 4th in the table after a victory over Smolevichi ended a three game losing streak. Vladimir Belyavskiy knows that his team was expected to win last week's match against a struggling team. This match is a return to the harsh reality. The concern for the club's fans is that their four wins this season so far have all come against teams that are battling down the bottom end of the table with the exception of BATE Borisov who were in a bad way early on. They may still be in amongst the top sides but the jury remains out on whether this side can deliver the goods against the better performing sides.

I have to join @allyhibs and Basil on the FC Slutsk train here. They are clearly a team that are in a rich vein of form right now. I'm not sold that Energetik-BGU can perform against the better sides on the road. Jasurbek Yaxshiboev is their main hope for goals so if FC Slutsk can keep him quiet then it's half of the job done. I think a business-like win is on the cards for the home team here.

FC Slutsk to Win @ 2.45 with SpreadEx

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

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Gorodeya vs FC Minsk

We are treated to a double header in the Belarus Premier League today with Gorodeya and FC Minsk pitting their whits against each other in a 5pm BST kick-off at the Haradzeya Stadium. Both teams could really do with a win in this game to lift them on up in the table. A defeat would further add to their early season troubles and potentially see irreparable damage done to their squad morale.

Gorodeya are in 10th place but remain closer to top spot than the relegation places. Still, two league games without a win has seen them slowly fall down the table and failure to win this game would lengthen that poor run of form. Oleg Radushko has seen his team only manage 1 win from their 3 home games in the league which is a concern. However, after beating Dinamo Minsk 1-0 at home less than a month ago they'll be keen to add another capital city scalp to their record here.

FC Minsk had started this campaign well with back-to-back wins but just 1 win in their last 5 league games has become a problem. Andrey Razin will have identified the leaky defence has his main point of address. This reached a worst state in their last game as they suffered a 5-2 defeat at home to 2nd placed Torpedo Zhodino. That made it 15 goals conceded in the league so far. The worst by any team at this stage. Add to that it's now 4 losses in their last 5 matches and the club is clearly entering a very demoralising state with the club now in 12th position.

I'm not sure what is going on with FC Minsk. A generally poor season is littered with the odd decent performance. I mean, it was only two games ago that they sealed a 3-1 win away to Slavia Mozyr. Gorodeya are far from convincing at home so that makes it a less clear cut decision to make. The ELO ratings actually back the away side so taking that into account I'm going to go down the middle and back a score draw.

Draw @ 3.10 with Bet365

BTTS @ 2.10 with Betfair

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Bets placed so far;

Treble.

Stutsk v Energetik - Have to back a home win here at these odds, Slutsk are flying at the moment, as @StevieDay1983 says above, Energetik are generally poor on the road  and against the stronger sides. Stutsk @ 2.45.

Mozyr v Torpedo - I thought Mozyr were fortunate last week with their late show against Vitebsk, Torpedo were impressive, scoring 5 goals to stay second top. Away win for me. Torpedo @ 2.60.

Vitebsk v Shakhtyor - Shakhtyor look in good form going into this and look the better side here. Shakhtyor @ 1.65.

Treble pays 10.51 - 0.5pt.

As per usual, I've backed the first leg as a single, fancy Slutsk quite strongly today.

Slutsk @ 2.45 - 2pts.

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First up in Belarus is Slutsk v Energetik with Kulbakov in charge. He's a pretty solid low cards ref with a less than average penalty rate in this league though at least average in all competitions.

For me this will be a bookings sell nearer the time (currently 56 with both firms or 14 if I opt for selling the 50-ups). I've taken what I could get (not much, trust me) on <5.5 cards at 11/10 Sporting Bet and <50 points at 6/4 with PP. In a sample of 34 games for Kulbakov only 4 have gone over the spread price (3 at 60 and a 75). 29 went <5.5 cards and 23 <50.

I've bought penalty goal minutes at 13 with SPIN. Fixed odds prices are less attractive now but I've done doubles and trebles on pen awarded in the 1st 4 games at 2/1 or better with Hills.

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Gorodeya v Minsk is another low game for me with Krasnikov in charge. Not much form to go at for him but I'll happily sell at 59 or better and take what I'm allowed on <60 at 10/11 with Sky Bet.

He looks the better prospect of the day for pens so a buy of pen goal mins at 12 with SPIN looks very good when SX are going 14-17. As I type that I'm prompted to check the penalty performance prices and can't resist adding a buy at 6 with SPIN (again much higher with SX). Pays 25 points per penalty scored and 10 per penalty saved (zero for a miss).

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Slavia Mozyr vs Torpedo Zhodino

The second day of the Belarus Premier League weekend matches starts at 1pm BST this afternoon when Slavia Mozyr entertain Torpedo Zhodino at the Junactva Stadium. The home side will be looking to build on last weekend's win to move on up the table whilst the away team will be keen to get 3 points to move ahead of FC Slutsk into top position in the division.

Slavia Mozyr come into this game in 8th place. Mihail Martsinovich saw his team end a winless run of 4 matches last weekend with their 3-2 win away to Vitebsk in one of the games of the season so far. Two goals in the last 4 minutes turned the match on its head to give Slavia the win and ruin a lot of our bets. It was the perfect remedy after their Belarus Cup semi-final defeat to BATE Borisov. Can they win at home in the league here for the first time since 28th March?

Torpedo Zhodino have prevailed as one of the early contenders for the top flight title. Yuri Puntus has led his team to 3rd in the table after 7 league games. The team now has the opportunity to move to the summit with a win after FC Slutsk suffered a surprise loss yesterday. An unbeaten run of 4 league games has seen the team move quietly up the table. The 5-2 win away to FC Minsk last week silenced any concerns critics voiced over their away form. The goals of Valeri Gorbachik have been vital for the team cause so he could be worth an anytime scorer bet.

I'm expecting a thrilling encounter here. Slavia Mozyr have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their 7 league matches so far and Torpedo Zhodino have the potential to be free-scoring. The away side will certainly hold a psychological edge over their opponents coming into this match having beaten them in 6 of the last 7 encounters between the two sides.

Torpedo Zhodino to Win @ 2.76 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.14 with Unibet

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Poor start to the weekend yesterday with the treble falling at the first and also the single losing, followed Stevie on the Gorodeya draw though so it's all square so far. One bet today.

Slavia Mozyr  v Torpedo.

Torpedo were impressive in last week win away to Minsk, they were ruthless in front of goals and another performance like that could see another 3 points here. I'm typing this just as @StevieDay1983 posts above and I was going to mention Gorbachik as well, a hattrick last week, surely a good shout for anytime scorer this week.

Torpedo @ 2.70 - 1pt.

 

 

 

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Neman Grodno vs Ruh Brest

The second game in today's double header is a 3pm BST kick-off from the Neman Stadium where Neman Grodno host Ruh Brest. Both of these teams will be determined to grab a much-needed win here. It's not been the best of starts for either side with them both loitering at the wrong end of the table. A win, draw, or defeat will have a huge impact on both their seasons.

Neman Grodno sit in 14th place and just 1 spot above the relegation zone. However, the team is still 5 points clear of the side below them. It's also 6 home league matches unbeaten for Igor Kovalevich's side including winning 4 of those games. Their last outing at home delivered a stunning 3-0 win over high-flying Energetik-BGU. It is the defensive performances at home that have really caught the eye with the four victories all providing clean sheets.

Ruh Brest are also down in the doldrums in 12th place and just 1 point better off than their opponents heading into this game. The problem is that they don't have the form book to lift their spirits. Aleksandr Sednyov's men have only scored 3 goals all season and 2 of those have come at home. They have failed to score in any of their last three away league games. It's not exactly the sort of statistics their fans will want to hear coming into this match.

I think this one has got a Neman Grodno win written all over it. There is very little separating these two teams in the league but they are worlds apart in terms of their respective home and away form. Ruh Brest will need a drastic turnaround in their performances on the road to get the win here. I'm surprised the odds on a home win are as high as they are so I have to back it.

Neman Grodno to Win @ 2.50 with Boylesports

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.38 with Betfair

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Slavia Mozyr v Torpedo Zhodino is reffed by Shcherbakov who is very much a high card and pens galore ref!

Hard to find an angle on the bookings but I've bought penalty goal minutes at 15 with SX. Slavia somewhat of a corners machine and I've backed their multis >8.5 at evens PP and total corners >6.5 at 23/20 888.

Think that's it unless any scorers appeal after a quick look.

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22 minutes ago, allyhibs said:

I've backed Gorbackik in the Torpedo game, couldn't resist the price.

Gorbachik Anytime Scorer @ 2.70 - 0.5pt.

Good luck, SX offering 9/4 for some reason! Narh the bet for me, 7/2 was huge with 888 but taken down (for now at least) before I got on. Taken 10/3 PP and 25/1 the brace.

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Well, that went well with a 0-0 draw and no joy on any of the bets.

Finally for today it's Neman Grodno v Rukh Brest with Koronets in charge and I've just backed 4-6 cards at 23/20 with Hills (ref's stats pitch him as odds on to land "in the middle") and bought pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN.

Hoping it's the lucky last!

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hoping it's the lucky last!

Just about! Finished with 6 cards (5 yellows and a red) but it was a nervy last few minutes with goals flying in at both ends. Also got a 55th minute penalty which was decent for the goal minutes and landed a penalty taken double across the first four games. Not a great weekend so far but that certainly made it closer to break even.

Already done the penalty taken multis for tomorrow's 4 games with 888. 3 x 11/5 and a 2/1.

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Isloch vs Belshina

The final day of action from the Belarus Premier League is a beast with four matches coming up. The fun and frolics begin at midday BST when Isloch host Belshina at the Traktar Stadium. The home side will be looking to get a win to keep the pressure on the leading pack against a travelling team that have really struggled to adapt to their new life in the top flight.

Isloch head into this game in 5th place and just 4 points off the pace of top spot. Vitaliy Zhukovsky saw his team suffer a demoralising 4-0 loss away to Shakhtyor Soligorsk last weekend. It was a defeat that shut a run of back-to-back wins down before the club had a chance to build some momentum. Had the team won that game then they would have been coming into this game with the chance to go top of the league. Fortunately, they are facing an opposition low of confidence and morale at a venue where they've won their last two matches.

Belshina have found it really hard to handle this first season back in the Belarusian elite division. Eduard Gradoboyev is clearly doing the best he can under the circumstances but his squad just lacks the ability and experience required for this level. That's how it seems so far anyway. Only 2 points gained from their first 7 league games is not a good return. 6 goals shipped in their last 2 league games also shows the defence is becoming more and more fragile with every passing round. It's hard to see how they can turn this rot around.

Nobody in their right mind would be willing to back Belshina right now. Especially on the road. Isloch will be looking to bounce back after last weekend's loss and this is the perfect opportunity to do exactly that. I think we'll see a convincing win for the home side that will heap more pressure on the away side who look like a dead side walking already. This will be another nail in the coffin.

Isloch HT/FT @ 2.50 with Sportingbet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.05 with Bet365

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Vitebsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk

The second game coming up today in the Belarus Premier League marathon is between Vitebsk and Shakhtyor Soligorsk in a 2pm BST kick-off from the Vitebsky Central Sports Complex. This is a classic mid-table clash between two sides that aren't currently in danger of being dragged into the lower reaches of the table but do have an opportunity to get points that will move them up the table amongst the front runners.

Vitebsk sit in 10th place and are currently positioned closer to top spot than the relegation zone. Back-to-back defeats in the league have stunted their progress but Sergey Yasinky will be hoping his side can bounce back with a victory on home turf today. The 3-2 loss to Slavia Mozyr was a gut-wrenching experience with the two late goals stealing all 3 points for the visitors. A chance to rectify that result on their own patch is a fantastic opportunity for the team. The fact the team has managed to score in all of their home games so far will give them a degree of confidence.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk are positioned slightly higher than their opponents coming into this game in 7th place. Yuriy Vernydub has witnessed his side win back-to-back matches in the league and 3 matches in all competitions. Those results have seen them move up to within 5 points of the league leaders. It's also now 10 goals scored in their last three competitive outings. It's also two away games in a row where they have kept a clean sheet.

OK, so I have to follow all the signs here. The bookies and ELO ratings back the away side quite convincingly. Vitebsk might be only slightly behind Shakhtyor in the league table but it seems statistically they are quite far apart. The away side come into this game free-scoring and with a tightly-knit defensive unit on the road. I have to take the punt here and back an away win. I'm just not sure if it'll be with a clean sheet or not. I'll swerve that temptation this week I think.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk to Win @ 1.68 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.30 with Betfair

 

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Smolevichi vs BATE Borisov

The 4pm BST kick-off in the Belarus Premier League is between newly promoted minnows Smolevichi and domestic giants BATE Borisov at the Haradski Stadium in Borisov. This is a classic David versus Goliath encounter with all the pressure on the away side to continue their positive run of form against a side that are looking all but doomed in this division already.

Smolevichi aren't bottom of the Belarusian top flight. That's about as positive as it gets right now. Aleksandr Brazevich's men have earned 3 points from their 7 league games so far with three draws. The lack of that elusive win after their promotion from the second tier is fast becoming a weight around their shoulders. They are still proving to be a hard team to beat but they're just lacking that bit of quality to turn losses into draws and draws into wins. It doesn't help that their form at their temporary home stadium isn't great with 3 defeats from the 4 matches played there this season.

BATE Borisov are looking more like the team we thought they could be before this season started. Kirill Alshevsky has turned the corner with the club's form. It's now 5 matches undefeated in all competitions with 4 clean sheets and 3 wins on the bounce. The encouraging sign is that BATE are showing they have goals coming from right across the pitch. 7 different goal scorers already this season is quite the attacking arsenal.

It's hard to see this BATE steam train being stopped in a game like this. Smolevichi are struggling to find their feet and the lack of playing in their preferred home stadium is appearing to have a detrimental affect. It'll feel weird for the players to travel to the region of their opponents as the "home" side and you can't help but feel this is putting them at a psychological disadvantage before a ball has been kicked. I'd be surprised to see anything other than a convincing BATE win to continue their decent run of form.

BATE Borisov HT/FT @ 1.95 with SpreadEx

BATE Borisov -1 @ 1.95 with Betway

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Dynamo Brest vs Dinamo Minsk

It's the battle of the Dinamos... or Dynamos... or however you choose to spell each one! This 6pm BST kick-off rounds off the final day of action in the Belarus Premier League today at the OSK Brestsky. Both of these teams will be feeling a little bit disappointed with their current position in the league table so a win here will go a long way to boosting their squad morale.

Dynamo Brest are currently situated in 11th place on 10 points. The expected 3-0 win away to Belshina last weekend has helped move their points tally along after they had previously be precariously hovering over the relegation spaces. Syarhey Kavalchuk will be aware that their city rivals and newly promoted Ruh Brest are pulling away from them after a decent run of results. Victory here will be needed to ensure their rivals don't move out of reach.

Dinamo Minsk had looked to be improving under new manager Leonid Kuchuk after back-to-back wins. The 2-1 loss at home to FC Slutsk last week was probably not too much of a surprise given the form of the winners but it was a blow to the resurgent Dinamo side. The club remains down in 13th place with just 9 points from their 7 league matches so far in this campaign. The bad news is that Dinamo have lost 2 of their 3 away games this season. Will that stat change under Kuchuk?

I'm anticipating goals being scored in this game. Both teams have scored in 3 of the 4 home games played at Dynamo Brest's ground and Dinamo Minsk have scored in 5 of their 7 league matches so far. This is a tough one to finish on. I've not really been impressed by either side this season but Dinamo Minsk look to be on the bounce back now. I'm torn between an away win or draw so I will back a draw for value.

Draw @ 3.50 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.91 with William Hill

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I know after eventing is frowned upon but I did a last minute 1pt on Rukh Brest yesterday to finish the day slightly (0.5pt) ahead. I didn't get a chance to post it on here in time as I was working, I've finally got some work to do after 7 weeks off :). I think Basil's delighted to get his house back to himself during the day.

Today looks like a good opportunity to make a decent profit though and so far I have a treble on;

Isloch, Shaktyor and BATE Treble pays 3.44 - 0.5pt.

My main focus is on the third game of the day though;

Smolevichi v BATE.

I've watched most of the BATE games so far and when they're on song they're the best side in the league, this game is only going one way and I think it's only a question of by how many goals do BATE win by. I think they're due to give someone a real hammering and I've backed that today.

BATE - 1 @ 1.90 - 4pts.

BATE -2 @ 3.50 - 1pt.

BATE -3 @ 7.50 - 0.5pt.

 

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Vitebsk v Soligorsk with Stetsurin as ref. Average ref if you take a long-term view but on an upwards trajectory and averages over 65 points this season. Good ref for pens. I'd be a lot more comfortable finding a value bet on high cards but I think the opposite is the case here and the bookies have priced this on the assumption that they'll see one-way traffic on high cards. Tempted by a sell of 50-ups at 20 (would need to go >70 for me to lose) but I'll stick with these:

<5.5 cards at 7/5 888
<50 points at 9/4 Sky Bet
<45 points at 27/10 Hills

Buy pen goal mins at 15 with SPIN and back penalty taken at 11/4 and 2+ taken at 28/1 with Sky Bet (usually clear lowest price but seem to be taking a different stance this week).
 

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Smolevichi v BATE Borisov reffed by Vasilevich is another game where the ref looks pretty average overall but shows a marked upwards trajectory. Again, I think that's more than reflected in the prices (despite him managing 2 reds and 110 points last week). Also a stronger than average penalty prospect in this game.

<60 points at 6/5 with PP and sell bookings at 65 with SPIN

Buy pen goal mins at 17 with SX and back penalty taken at 5/2 and 2+ taken at 22/1 with Sky Bet.

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5 hours ago, allyhibs said:

Smolevichi v BATE.

I've watched most of the BATE games so far and when they're on song they're the best side in the league, this game is only going one way and I think it's only a question of by how many goals do BATE win by. I think they're due to give someone a real hammering and I've backed that today.

BATE - 1 @ 1.90 - 4pts.

BATE -2 @ 3.50 - 1pt.

BATE -3 @ 7.50 - 0.5pt.

 

A couple of imaginary spread bets to channel your enthusiasm for BATE, just for the fun of seeing how they compare. Staking assumes you're playing a tenner a point, for the purpose of comparable money risked.

Buy BATE supremacy for £20 per goal at 1.6 and buy their goal rush for £2 per point at 24 (0 if they don't score, 10 for 1 goal then 20, 33, 50, 75 up to a 100 for 6+ goals).

Good luck with your real bets!

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Last game of the day is the "Dinamo derby", Brest v Minsk. Ref is Kurgheli who could be described as low to average overall with a low average this season. Unusually high totals in the 5 games he's handled for DB, especially for them, but best not to read too much into so small a sample. Not an encouraging prospect for pens but we know what happened last time I swerved a game for that reason! Corners bets been poor this weekend but the hosts seem to rack up a few in most games.

Sold bookings at 64 with SPIN

Bought Dinamo Brest corners squared at 48 with SX and backed them to get >6.5 at 8/5 with 888 (both require 7 for profit)

Jury out on pens bets and whether to have something on home booking points.

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45 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

A couple of imaginary spread bets to channel your enthusiasm for BATE, just for the fun of seeing how they compare. Staking assumes you're playing a tenner a point, for the purpose of comparable money risked.

Buy BATE supremacy for £20 per goal at 1.6 and buy their goal rush for £2 per point at 24 (0 if they don't score, 10 for 1 goal then 20, 33, 50, 75 up to a 100 for 6+ goals).

Good luck with your real bets!

At half time you could close out the supremacy bet at 2.8 and the goal rush at 55, taking profits of £24 and £62. Think I'll let it run, not least with it being an imaginary bet! :)

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31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Jury out on pens bets and whether to have something on home booking points.

Sod it, it's been a long day and I'm in no mood to second guess myself too much. Following pens off the proverbial cliff, buy mins at 15 and back one taken at 5/2 Sky Bet. With same firm, 40+ home booking points at 9/4.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

At half time you could close out the supremacy bet at 2.8 and the goal rush at 55, taking profits of £24 and £62. Think I'll let it run, not least with it being an imaginary bet! :)

Final result is 5-3, with the hosts doing their best to scupper any handicap or supremacy bets. Supremacy makes up at 2 (the margin of victory) for a profit of just £8 but goal rush makes up at 75 for a profit of 51 x stake or £102. Total profit £110 so beats the £86 we could have taken at half time.

Well done on the handicap profit. :ok

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