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CzechPunter

Corona Tennis Off-Season Betting

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Seems like we might be getting some markets soon, so putting this up already. Some betting is also already available for Germany and the US already, although nothing particularly interesting so far.

You kidding, nothing particularly interesting? Have you missed 18 year old bulgarian Adrian Andreev kicking everyones ass in exhibition matches now? Andreev paid 2.12 at Unibet to beat Roberto Cid Subervi last weekend. 3 tie-breaks without break of serve between Cid Subervi and Andreev and the 18 year old lost first set but wow how he's playing in his exhibition games. After he beat Cid Subervi he's been steamrolling everyone. And as you mentioned there are some tennis coming up in Germany. I've seen Dustin Brown scheduled to play someone.

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Dustin Brown has already played quite a few people, he's the guy that actually helped to set up the entire "tour" in Germany! 

Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing Andreev face someone real in a real competition as well, but I'd imagine he's doing so well in part because the others just aren't as hungry.

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Because the tennis for the next few weeks (until August 3 hopefully!) will probably be still more about live betting if anything, I'd just like to share some thoughts here.

- Alexander Zverev hasn't done anything to fix his serve over the break, double faulting all over the place against Lajovic

- Dshandshgava is a promising talent from Austria, 18 years old, can certainly show up on the main tour soon

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Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Dustin Brown @ 1.20 with Betfair / 12-14, 18-13, 16-11, 15-10

ultimate tennis showdown week two. tsitsipas destroyed paire 3-1 (74-33 points!) and won a tight match vs gasquet 3-2. brown fell short 1-3 twice vs berrettini and paire. no chance for the showclown in this one, no matter what rules are played. take the opening line as long as you can, odds will drop.

Edited by kedbet

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Marin Cilic (+1.5 Sets) to beat Alexander Zverev @ 1.45 with Dafabet / 3-4, 4-0, 0-0

we all know why. one ridiculous zverev service game/tiebreak with some double faults in either set will most likely seal the deal.

Edited by kedbet

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3 hours ago, kedbet said:

Marin Cilic (+1.5 Sets) to beat Alexander Zverev @ 1.45 with Dafabet / 3-4, 4-0, 0-0

we all know why. one ridiculous zverev service game/tiebreak with some double faults in either set will most likely seal the deal.

Nice one @kedbet that was almost a lock. 5 double faults so far from Sasha heading into the decider which is another ridiculous number considering how few service games he's had. Not sure who his coach is now but there's no way I'd coach him because he's making things unnecessarily difficult for himself. The amount of double faults he serves is completely unacceptable and means that he's giving his opponents a handicap start every time he plays. To me it's really simple - if you double fault you 100 percent lose the point. Even if you hit a powder puff second serve there's a chance of winning the point, even if it's only one percent. From that perspective your second serve has to go in and really should be going in nearly every time if you're a professional tennis player.

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11 minutes ago, Torque said:

One other thing @kedbet don't edit existing posts. If you want to post the result of one of your picks then reply to the message you originally posted that had the pick in it :ok

okay! why is editing not allowed? 🧐

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It's just the way things are done here. I'm not saying you would do it, but for example in your initial post where you put up Cilic on a plus if the initial post is edited after the result is known and again for example if Cilic had lost in straights you could edit your post to say that your pick wasn't Cilic on a plus. Hopefully that makes sense - it's just cleaner and easier to post a pick, then post afterwards in a separate post what the result of the pick was :ok

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8 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's just the way things are done here. I'm not saying you would do it, but for example in your initial post where you put up Cilic on a plus if the initial post is edited after the result is known and again for example if Cilic had lost in straights you could edit your post to say that your pick wasn't Cilic on a plus. Hopefully that makes sense - it's just cleaner and easier to post a pick, then post afterwards in a separate post what the result of the pick was :ok

roger that :ok

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Diane Parry to beat Estelle Cascino @ 1.25 with Pinnacle

parry top junior, beat gracheva yesterday. cascino nothing special. might be already cancelled, but i still give it a try.

Edited by kedbet

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11 hours ago, kedbet said:

Diane Parry to beat Estelle Cascino @ 1.25 with Pinnacle

Renata Zarazua (1.14) to beat Rhiann Newborn + Varvara Lepchenko (1.20) to beat Emily Fanning @ 1.37 with Betfair

parry was cancelled as expected, so i'm going big on this combo pick. both matches are played on the east coast pro series. normal rules with a matchtiebreak if needed. zarazua played 37 exhibition matches on the us pro series so far and won 33 of them. only lost to lepchenko, halbauer and twice to jovic. lepchenko and jovic are (beside zarazua and xu) the most skilled players in the us pro series participant field and halbauer is able to do some damage on a given day. zarazua won 10 matches in straight sets lately and is facing a senior player from baylor university. newborn had two itf main draw appearances in 2019 where she managed to win 5 games in total. furthermore she got eliminated in the qualifying 11 times last year. newborn took the first set off lepchenko yesterday, as varvara was sleeping in her opening match. in the second match newborn was crushed by mendez. mendez on the other hand lost to zarazua last monday in straight sets and, even though she reached the tiebreak in the opening set, the aussie never looked like she could beat the mexican. zarazua will grind newborn down and we got the biggest odds on the market. lepchenko played 29 exhibition matches on the us pro series so far and lost 4. twice to zarazua, yesterday to former no1 junior player shilin xu and almost 3 weeks ago to emily fanning! average odds on lepchenko were @ 1.03 back then and literally nobody knows what happened in this match. fanning even lost in straight sets to sysoeva yesterday who was on a 30 set(!!!) losing streak herself and is maybe the weakest player in this series. the chances of lepchenko falling short to fanning once again are not measurable.

good luck mates!

Edited by kedbet

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27 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Good luck @kedbet! I'm still waiting for the right moment to get back on track, these short-odds exhos just don't feel right given the limits and everything.

thanks mate, looking forward for your comeback! i'm into short-odds since the dawn of time, so for me it feels like usual 😜

Edited by kedbet

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Richard Gasquet to beat Dustin Brown @ 1.33 with Betfair

to be honest i don't like brown. neither his unorthodox game, nor his unprofessional attitude. he even blocked me on social media because i told him once to improve his return game lol. he is just a clown with a decent serve touring challengers to make a living out of this sport. zero ambition. honestly i can't see him defeat anyone at ultimate tennis showdown except maybe popyrin, or lopez on a bad serving day. gasquet beat a solid goffin, lost to tsitsipas by 2 points in a sudden death fifth quarter and defeated thiem from behind yesterday. can't see him losing to someone who isn't even able to stay in rallies.

Edited by kedbet

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9 hours ago, kedbet said:

Renata Zarazua (1.14) to beat Rhiann Newborn + Varvara Lepchenko (1.20) to beat Emily Fanning @ 1.37 with Betfair

Newborn - Zarazua / 1-6, 0-6
Fanning - Lepchenko / 3-6, 3-6

3 hours ago, kedbet said:

Richard Gasquet to beat Dustin Brown @ 1.33 with Betfair

Brown - Gasquet / 10-23, 5-20, 13-18, 10-18

:ok

Edited by kedbet

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Julia Grabher (1.06) to beat Irina Dshandshgava + Junior Alexander Ore (1.17) to beat Carter Bradford @ 1.24 with Betfair

saw both matches from dshandshgava vs antonitsch where she managed to win 4 games in 4 sets. the 18yo is just incredibly bad and grabher on the other side is the most experienced player at the austrian pro series. she won all 5 matches so far and she will also win this one. highest odds on the market, thank you very much for 6% return. at the international tennis series i'm going with junior alexander ore who is facing maybe the worst player of this starting field. bradford is a redshirt sophomore from the florida gulf coast university. he is 1-10 since joining this series about a month ago. in todays matchup he will be confronted with the most skilled opponent so far. ore has a great lefty serve and is overall on a way higher level. under normal circumstances i can't even see him losing a set.

Edited by kedbet

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3 hours ago, kedbet said:

Julia Grabher (1.06) to beat Irina Dshandshgava + Junior Alexander Ore (1.17) to beat Carter Bradford @ 1.24 with Betfair

Grabher - Dshandshgava / 6-3, 6-2
Bradford - Ore / 0-6, 2-6

:ok

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Daniel Evans to beat Jay Clarke @ 1.35 with Pinnacle

battle of the brits first day. this prize is so wrong, even the lowest odds on the market @ 1.22 are too high. this is almost 100% evans if you ask me. saw a rally a few days ago from a training session between evans and glasspool and dan is already in decent shape. still doing what he does best: running, slicing, fighting and being a smart cookie. clarke is mentally weak and always shaky, even on challenger level. on the other side dan can beat anyone on a given day. complete mismatch, odds are a joke.

Edited by kedbet

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Andrea Gamiz (1.08) to beat Mary Closs + Leylah Annie Fernandez (1.22) to beat Emma Navarro @ 1.32 with Betfair

there aren't many players in the west coast pro series closs is able to beat. gamiz isn't one of them. three days ago gamiz destroyed her 6-2, 6-0 by winning almost twice as much points as the senior from the university of notre dame. once again betfair offers the highest odds on the market and we take 8% return. the second match is played in the credit one bank invitational tournament. i have to admit that i really hate to see the service motion of leylah. her routine is some kind of annoying, but at least she has routines. that's why she is one of the most promising nextgen players in women's tennis. she is the far better girl in this teenager clash and i don't even think navarro will be able to keep it close.

Edited by kedbet

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On 6/22/2020 at 11:54 PM, kedbet said:

Daniel Evans to beat Jay Clarke @ 1.35 with Pinnacle

Evans - Clarke / 6-3, 6-1

7 hours ago, kedbet said:

Andrea Gamiz (1.08) to beat Mary Closs + Leylah Annie Fernandez (1.22) to beat Emma Navarro @ 1.32 with Betfair

Closs - Gamiz / 2-6, 1-6
Navarro - Fernandez / 4-6, 0-6

:ok

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Peter Heller to beat Niklas Guttau @ 1.30 with Betfair

heller finds himself in the bonus stage of the dtb german pro series after finishing 5th in the preliminaries two weeks ago. he had the hell of a group back then with german number two jan-lennard struff and dark horse mats rosenkranz, who even managed to beat struff from behind 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. since losing to both of them at the beginning of this invitational tournament heller has won the last 4 matches without dropping a set. today he defeated bachinger 7-6, 6-4. heller was ranked the number one itf-player back in february 2019. pure clay court specialist with 12 itf-titles to his name. on the other side we have niklas guttau with no itf-title ever who lost 5 out of 6 so far in the dtb german pro series. he got outplayed by bachinger 3-6, 1-6 yesterday. guttau got his first win today after beating the 17yo philip florig in a deciding set. florig managed to win a single game in his 0-6, 1-6 defeat to heller yesterday. heller will take this, no doubt about that.

Edited by kedbet

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Alejandro Tabilo to beat Evan King @ 1.32 with Unibet

short reason this time: evan king made 8 return points in his straight-set loss vs tabilo almost two weeks ago. none(!!!) in the second set. he is a complete psycho on (and off?) court and even lost vs karlovskiy 3 hours ago. for me there is a big gap skillwise and especially mentally between those players and and i can only see one winner.

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11 hours ago, kedbet said:

King - Tabilo / 3-6, 3-6

7 return points today. this guy deserves a spot in every lay betting portfolio. total self-destruction :ok

I had a quick check on my database to see if he under performs more often with regards to the market opinion. When he's average 1.65 he's only winning 54% of his matches instead of about 60%. 

He's about on point when he's about 1.35, so maybe he can only perform as expected when he's a strong fave? He's about on point when he's a slight underdog too, winning 45% of his matches when he's average of 2.2. maybe it's more in game laying that you can value from him with. Be interesting to see his break of serve stats compared to the tour. I have to shoot out now so can't check. I bet he's terrible. 

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Daniel Evans (1.13) to beat Ryan Peniston + Maximilian Marterer (1.07) to beat Jeremy Schifris @ 1.21 with Betfair

some kind of no-brainer. peniston fell short to norrie and jubb. evans killed clarke and norrie without dropping a set. dan is facing murray tomorrow in the semifinals and clearly won't go into this tough battle with a loss to someone who never beat a top100 player in his life. marterer (3-0 with 6-0 sets) should have played vs krawietz (2-1 with 4-2 sets) today for the first place in großhesselohe. krawietz withdrawn and the 18yo schifris is the replacement. well, anything else than marterer securing his main round #1 spot would suprise me here.

Edited by kedbet

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