Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **
** November Nap's Competition Result: 1st andellio, 2nd Saddlesore, 3rd bymatrix, 4th MrJol KO Cup: DonnyFlyer, Most Winners: Astleavista**

Premier League Predictions > May 1st - 3rd


Recommended Posts

Just checked the ref appointments and it's a first top flight game of the season tomorrow for Andrey Vasilevich. He's handled 35 games over the previous two seasons, averaging 37.43 points (33.61 in 18/19 and 41.47 in 19/20). He only awarded a penalty in 6 of those 35 games.

The ref's, in order, for Saturday's 3 games are Kurgheli, Shimusik and Stetsurin. Dmitreyev handles the 1st Sunday game with the others TBC for now.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Mmmm, first thoughts are it looks like a difficult weekend of fixtures, nothing really jumping out. BATE Ht/ Ft or -1 maybe. It looks a weekend to be cautious, need to be careful not to lose the hard earned profit. Gonna have to have a chat with Basil.

Edited by allyhibs
Link to post
Share on other sites

Smolevichi vs Energetik-BGU

The opening match of this weekend's Belarus Premier League fixtures comes at the Ozyorny Stadium where struggling top flight new boys Smolevichi play mid-table Energetik-BGU in a 2pm BST kick-off. As @allyhibs states, we need to brace ourselves for some tough matches this week. This is a prime example. Are the out-of-form side worth backing at home or will the inconsistent visitors use experience to push on up the table?

Smolevichi have only just stopped celebrating their promotion from the Belarus second tier and they're already considering the reality that it might be a brief stay at the top table in their country's domestic league. Aleksandr Brazevich has yet to see his team win a game since their promotion and when you look at their matches it's clear to see what the issue has become. A lack of a proven goalscorer is obvious and this has forced the team to adopt a more cautious and conservative approach. Only 3 goals scored in their 6 league matches so far and only once have more than 2.5 goals been scored in any of those games. The 3-1 loss at home to Dinamo Minsk last weekend was a hard dose of reality for sure.

Energetik-BGU started the season very well with 3 straight wins but it's been downhill ever since. That start has been contradicted by 3 consecutive defeats for Vladimir Belyavskiy's men leaving us wondering what on earth has gone wrong for the Minsk side? It's been a Jekyll and Hyde display so far. The first three matches saw free-flowing football with goals flying in and a tight defence. The next three games have failed to deliver a single goal and 6 goals conceded. It's hard to explain. The away form has also been far from convincing. Just 1 win in 3 on the road and even that victory was far from convincing.

Wow, we're thrown right into the mixer here. I'm going to be honest and re-emphasise the fact you all know I'm a football romantic. I can't resist the urge to back an underdog. Smolevichi might not have won a game yet but they're doing their best. In contrast, Energetik-BGU have shown their potential but slipped back into old habits. I think my level of uncertainty about this game needs to be reflected in me calling it down the middle and backing a draw.

Draw @ 3.10 with William Hill

Total Corners Under 9.5 @ 2.00 with Betfair

Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Anyone knows why some bookies have Smolevichi vs Energetik BGU while some have Energetik BGU vs Smolevichi? Who really is the home side?

Not sure. This has happened a few times. My understanding is that Smolevichi are at home.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Not sure. This has happened a few times. My understanding is that Smolevichi are at home.

Hills state the following under their match odds: "Match played at Haradski Stadium, Borisov" so I'm guessing it's a neutral ground for some reason?

Link to post
Share on other sites

They've played all their "home" games there this season and their final game in the lower league last season. I also read that they were briefly a "farm" club for BATE Borisov.

So it's not their listed home ground but seems to be where they have been playing at for a while.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Bets first, then waffle.

Penalty taken at 3/1 Hills and buy pen goal mins at 14 (either firm)

Energetik most cards at 11/5 and Energetik >3.5 cards at 21/10, both 888

<60 bookings points at 6/5 PP


Penalties wise ref looks nothing special on his top flight games but factor in other competitions and he looks pretty average. This is just about a bet for me rather than a strong selection, but missing out on a winner in the last game last weekend showed the perils of trying to do too much second guessing.

In terms of cards there's no evidence to suggest a high top flight average for this guy, more like a solid middle ranking in the low to mid 40s. Looking at the totals the teams have racked up so far this season there's nothing too surprising when you look at who reffed the game. I think the chances of this going <60 points are closer to evens and worth a play at 6/5 even if it's with eyes closed from behind the sofa! The spreads make this quite close to a coin toss in terms of which team will gain most cards, with Energetik as slight favourites. On that basis, the prices offered by 888 look to good to pass up.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Line-ups slow to come through but found them eventually. Yakhshiboev starts for Energetik and is well worth backing at 4/1 anytime "Power Price" with Paddy. Rude not to take a bit of the 20s for him to score in the first 20 mins as well.

Also on Atemengue to be carded at 13/5 but he's on the bench unfortunately!

Link to post
Share on other sites

First up tomorrow is FC Minsk v Torpedo Zhodino and I'll stick to the bets first then waffle formula!

Penalty taken at 5/2 888 (Hills only 9/4) and buy pen goal mins at 15 with SX

Sell bookings at 57 with SPIN (was going to take evens for <60 with Skybet but trimmed to 8/11)

Ref is Kurgheli who looks at least average for pens and no more than average for cards. I can't find any reason to pitch his typical make-up beyond the mid 40s and he's only averaging 32 for 5 games this season. You need to put your chainmail underpants on in this league but this is one of the occasional under/sell games for me.
 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm on a roll so onto the 2nd game! Rukh Brest v Gorodeya with Shimusik at the helm.

Again, an average at least ref for pens but, for cards, one who seems to be on an upwards trajectory. All things considered I've opted for these bets:

Penalty taken at TBC (11/4 available but still awaiting some prices) and buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN

>60 points at 11/10 PP and 70+ points at 6/4 Skybet

30+ Rukh Brest booking points at evens Skybet

Could be a high make up here (hopefully, given the bets) and I think the hosts should be a shade of odds on to hit the 30 mark.

Link to post
Share on other sites

FC Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino

It's a triple header today in the Belarus Premier League starting at midday BST when FC Minsk host Torpedo Zhodino at the Traktor Stadium. Only 2 points separate these two sides heading into this game so it's an early "six-pointer" with both teams holding aspirations to stay in touch with their rivals at the top end of the table. Can either side take the win?

FC Minsk will be relatively pleased with their start to the campaign. Andrey Razin has led his team to 7th but the art of consistency still needs to be mastered by this side. Back-to-back wins opened their campaign before a run of three straight league defeats was ended with a win last week. The defensive side of their game has been the sticking point with 10 goals conceded already in just 6 matches. The fact that the strikers blow hot and cold doesn't help either. Home results reflect their season's rollercoaster ride with a 3-2 win against Dinamo Minsk and a 3-0 loss versus BATE Borisov.

Torpedo Zhodino find themselves in 4th place and just 2 points off top spot. The form of Yuri Puntus's team is impressive with just 1 defeat. That can be largely attributed to this side's defensive stability. 5 of their 6 matches have produced clean sheets and with the team currently on an unbeaten run of 3 league games it's clear they've discovered the art of being tough to beat. A small issue is an inability to score goals at will. Only 4 goals in 6 matches is a concern. Just 1 win from their 3 away league games also suggests they might not be quite as confident on the road as they are at home.

At this early stage in the season, it's still difficult to make educated calls with the form of teams fluctuating so aggressively. FC Minsk are a prime example of this. Which side of theirs is going to show up. Torpedo Zhodino aren't much better. Their displays generally have been encouraging but back-to-back draws have stunted that optimism. I'll have to follow the ELO ratings on this one and back the home side to get a tightly fought win.

FC Minsk to Win @ 2.60 with Betfred

Total Goals Under 2.5 @ 1.55 with Sportingbet

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ruh Brest vs Gorodeya

Our second game today kicks off at 2pm BST and is between two mid-table sides in Ruh Brest and Gorodeya at the OSK Brestskiy. The home side are starting to show signs of adapting to the top flight of Belarusian football and they'll be hoping to extend their encouraging form against an away team that suffered an unexpected setback to their own decent run of results last week.

Ruh Brest came into this season as the favourites to finish bottom having earned promotion as the 3rd place finishers in the second tier last season. It was looking like that prophecy might be fulfilled with the team only winning 1 of their opening 4 league matches. However, a run of 3 league matches unbeaten with clean sheets coming in each of those games has given the fans hope with Aleksandr Sednyov's team moving up to 12th in the table.

Gorodeya were also looking set to struggle this season. Back-to-back defeats without a single goal scored opened their campaign. Oleg Radushko must have felt he was staring down the barrel of a gun. Fortunately, the team picked up some form with 3 straight league wins against Belshina, Dinamo Minsk, and Energetik-BGU. However, the 2-0 loss at home to a resurgent BATE Borisov last week ended that run. It'll be interesting to see how they react to that defeat.

Once again, we have a tricky game to call. Ruh Brest are building some momentum and the bookies have installed them as fair favourites coming into this game. The ELO ratings are also backing them. I am wary that Gorodeya have bagged two wins from their three away league matches so far so they shouldn't be completely ruled out. The information in the ELO ratings and Ruh Brest acclimatising to this level is enough to make me want to back them to win.

Ruh Brest to Win @ 1.95 with Betfred

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.30 with Unibet

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Basil and myself were up late last night trying to come up with some bets for this difficult round of fixtures, he agrees with me that caution is the way to go today but we think we've found a decent treble over the weekend.

Rukh Brest v Gorodeya - both these sides are hardly prolific in front of goals and they don't concede much either, could be a total snoozefest. Under 1.5 goals looks a decent shout at odds of 2.20.

Dynamo Minsk v Slutsk - Minsk look like they've kickstarted their season and will be looking for another 3 points at home to high flying Slutsk, this game just screams goals. Both teams to score, Yes @ 2.00.

BATE v Neman - Looks a comfortable home win here. BATE -1 @ 2.00.

Treble pays 8.80 - 0.5pt.

I'll have a 1pt single on the Under 1.5 goals in the Rukh Brest game and see how that goes before deciding what to do later.

 

Edited by allyhibs
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, allyhibs said:

I like Rukh too @StevieDay1983, I'm not convinced they should be odds on though so decided to leave it.

Yeah, I'm not entirely comfortable with it and was tempted to back the draw. However, the ELO ratings swayed me so I've gone for it. Draw calls been letting me down lately.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Yeah, I'm not entirely comfortable with it and was tempted to back the draw. However, the ELO ratings swayed me so I've gone for it. Draw calls been letting me down lately.

If the odds go up to 2.00 or above I think I might be tempted, I've said it before, I like Rukh, they're a solid unit.

As I write this the odds have dropped to 1.91.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dinamo Minsk vs FC Slutsk

The final game today is a big one with under-achieving Dinamo Minsk hosting league leaders FC Slutsk in a 4pm BST kick-off at the Dinamo Stadium. This is a huge opportunity for the home side to silence the critics and get a big results against the team that is leading the way in the Belarus Premier League. Can the home side prevail or will the away side take something from this tricky match?

Dinamo Minsk continued their fightback under the new management of Leonid Kuchuk last week when they hammered Smolevichi 3-1 away. That victory made it back-to-back wins and 3 wins from their last 4 league games. The team is still down in 9th place but they're now only 4 points off the pace of the top. A win here would move them even closer to that top spot so the motivation is certainly there. 5 goals scored in their past two league games shows the team has adopted a more positive approach and it's paying off. Evgeni Shikavka bagging 3 goals in his last 2 games suggests he could be worth an anytime scorer punt here.

FC Slutsk have won an army of foreign fans due to their name and Vitaliy Pavlov deserves huge credit for leading his team to the summit at this early stage. It does remain that though. An early stage. FC Slutsk are still punching above their weight but their form of 4 league games unbeaten including 3 wins can't be ignored. They have also won both of their away games scoring 5 goals in the process.

This could be a thrilling encounter. Both of these sides boast attacking riches that gives them the ability to sting teams. I'm quietly optimistic that Dinamo could be bouncing back under Kuchuk so my feeling is to back them to win. The odds on a home win alone aren't great so I'll throw in both teams to score as well. I have to also back the lad Shikavka to extend his scoring streak.

Dinamo Minsk to Win and BTTS @ 3.70 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Evgeni Shikavka @ 2.85 with 888Sport

Link to post
Share on other sites

Added pen at 12/5 in the second game, looks like the fixed odds value may be drying up though no real change to spreads as yet.

Last game of the day is Dinamo Minsk v FC Slutsk with upward trending Stetsurin in charge. My bets are:

Penalty taken at 11/5 with 888 and buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN

>60 booking points at 6/5 PP and 70+ at 11/8 Sky Bet

Link to post
Share on other sites

Belshina vs Dynamo Brest

The Belarus Premier League is jam-packed with action today as we see four matches being played across 8 hours. The match that begins proceedings is the 12pm BST kick-off between Belshina and Dynamo Brest that is scheduled to be played at the Spartak Stadium. Both of these teams have struggled at the start of this campaign but it's without a doubt that the home team find themselves in a more dire situation.

Belshina might have won the second tier title last season but the team has really failed to adapt effectively to life in the top flight of Belarusian football. Eduard Gradoboyev's men are still yet to record their first victory in the league and have only managed to accumulate 2 points from their 6 league games so far and sit bottom of the table. Those two points came in 1-1 draws against Neman Grodno and Smolevichi. OK, they are proving to be hard to break down with only 1 of their 4 defeats being by more than a single goal but as their win drought goes on longer it becomes even harder to see where it's going to come from.

Dynamo Brest are not in quite as poor a position as Belshina but the league table still doesn't make for pleasant reading for their fans. Back-to-back defeats have seen Syarhey Kavalchuk's side drop to 14th in the standings but they remain 4 points outside the automatic relegation places. They've also picked up 7 points from their 6 league games and are only 3 points off 5th place so it's a tightly congested table still. The 4-2 loss to Shakhtyor Soligorsk in the cup in midweek was another blow to morale and once again highlighted their current defensive frailties. The key bit of hope here though is that they're back to scoring goals and that could be their saviour.

Well, it's not a very nice time to be a Belshina fan. It currently looks like their side is out of its depth in this division. 5 points already separate these two teams so just because two places separate them in the table it doesn't mean they're necessarily closely matched. The bookies heavily back an away win. The ELO ratings just about favour the away team. I can see a narrow away win for Dynamo Brest as the home side will continue to toil.

Dynamo Brest to Win to Nil @ 2.63 with Betfred

Draw HT/ Dynamo Brest FT @ 4.60 with Unibet

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr

The second game coming up today kicks off at 2pm BST when Vitebsk entertain Slavia Mozyr at the Vitebskiy Central Sports Complex. Only 3 points separate these two sides in the table even though they are 7 places apart from each other. Can the inconsistent hosts steady their form book to add further misery to a travelling side that are seeing a nasty dip in their own results?

Vitebsk come into this game with an opportunity to apply pressure to the top sides. Sergey Yasinsky has led his team to 6th in the table but they're now 6 points off top spot after FC Slutsk's win yesterday. Just 1 loss in their last 4 league games has set them on a positive path but that solitary defeat did come in a 2-0 loss away to Isloch last weekend. The encouraging news is that the club's home form remains unblemished with two wins and two clean sheets.

Slavia Mozyr had started the season so well with just 1 loss in their opening 7 competitive games across league and cup matches. Mihail Martsinovich has since seen his team's form slowly slide downhill. The club is now without a win in their last 4 competitive matches. A 2-0 midweek loss to BATE in the cup added more hurt to the squad. It also meant it was now three straight defeats in the league.

I am a bit concerned about Slavia Mozyr's form right now. The team still has some wiggle room being 4 points outside the automatic relegation spots and it's early days. However, it's alarming how drastically their form has changed. They travel to a Vitebsk side that have been nothing short of assured and solid at home. It's hard to see this ending any other way than a resounding home win and the value on it is astonishing. Surely, I'm missing something?!

Vitebsk to Win @ 2.45 with Bet365

BTTS No @ 1.75 with BetVictor

Link to post
Share on other sites

Frustrating yesterday, small profit though thanks to Dynamos late goal. On to today;

Vitebsk v Slavia Mozyr - As @StevieDay1983 says above, the value here is clearly on the home win. Vitebsk @ 2.45.

BATE v Neman - BATE are starting to click, comfortable home win looks on the cards here. BATE -1 @ 2.20.

Soligorsk v Isloch - Soligorsk finally starting to find the net, Isloch can score a few too. BTTS, Yes @ 2.00.

Treble pays 10.78 - 0.5pt.

Same as yesterday, I've got a single on the first leg, see how that goes then decide what to do with the later games, I've been considering all week, a max stake bet on BATE -1.

Vitebsk @2.45 - 1pt. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

BATE Borisov vs Neman Grodno

The 4pm BST kick-off in the Belarus Premier League today comes from the Borisov Arena where BATE Borisov host Neman Grodno. The home side have started to find a bit of form now after a slow start. Can they continue that run of results against a lower mid-table side that are proving tough to beat but struggling to string a spell of victories together to move up the table?

BATE Borisov were looking to be in a dark place not that long ago. Back-to-back defeats to open their season put them behind the pace before they could even catch their breath. The pressure was put on Kirill Alshevsky immediately. Fortunately, results have turned around. An unbeaten run in the league of 4 matches including 3 victories has lifted spirits around the club with the team moving up to 5th in the table. The 2-0 win in midweek against Slavia Mozyr in the Belarus Cup semi-final second leg has also seen the team reach the domestic cup final. Momentum is certainly building.

Neman Grodno are down in 11th place but only 2 points behind their opponents coming into this game. Igor Kovalevich has seen his team become a fierce side to play against. Yes, they're only 4 places outside the relegation zone but it's now just 1 loss in their last 5 league games. However, they have also failed to score in half of their matches so far. They're not exactly the great entertainers and 7 of their 8 points gained so far have come at home.

It's understandable that the bookies and ELO ratings back BATE Borisov to seal a solid win here. They are the team in form and even though this will be far from a walkover against Neman Grodno I cannot see the visiting side really troubling the home team. I think BATE are good money for a clean sheet and will look to get into a commanding position early.

BATE Borisov to Win to Nil @ 2.15 with BetVictor

BATE Borisov HT/FT @ 2.37 with Bet365

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...