Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **
** November Nap's Competition Result: 1st andellio, 2nd Saddlesore, 3rd bymatrix, 4th MrJol KO Cup: DonnyFlyer, Most Winners: Astleavista**

Premier League Predictions > Apr 24th - 26th


Recommended Posts

Smolevichi vs Dinamo Minsk

The sixth round of Belarus Premier League matches kick-off today with an intriguing game between two sides that have struggled in the early days of the season. It's Smolevichi versus Dinamo Minsk in a 4pm BST start at the Ozyorny Stadium. A win is becoming more valuable with each passing week for these teams but can either side take all the points this afternoon?

Smolevichi sit in 15th place and just 1 point off the bottom of the table. It's been far from a pleasing start for Aleksandr Brazevich's side. The issue has been struggling to push on and turn draws into wins. Impotency in front of goals has been a key factor in that problem. Three league games have now seen Smolevichi fail to score. Worryingly, those three games have come at home. Unless that changes then it could be a long and hard season.

Dinamo Minsk have a huge opportunity to move on up the table from their league position of 12th. Leonid Kuchuk has been appointed as the new gaffer at the struggling side who have now lost 3 of their opening 5 league matches. It's a positive move from the club with Kuchuk renowned for his attacking philosophy. The club has lost both of its matches on the road this season so far but can that record change here.

I think the appointment of Kuchuk is an interesting one from Dinamo Minsk. It shows that the board were well aware that things weren't working under former manager Syarhey Hurenka. It's hoped that the new man can put more impetus on the attacking strengths of this Dinamo side. This is a great game to test that theory with Smolevichi really having problems adapting to their new life in the top flight of Belarus football. I'm optimistically predicting a narrow away win here but Dinamo have let me down a couple of times already this season. Hopefully, Kuchuk won't!

Dinamo Minsk to Win @ 1.94 with VBet

BTTS No @ 1.60 with BetVictor

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going for the away win here as well Stevie, it's not been the best start for Dinamo so far but here's a good chance for a result against one of the leagues minnows.

Where do you get the info from re. the new manager etc? I use soccerway but there's no info like that, also soccerways Belarus page doesn't seem to be working this morning.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Neman Grodno vs Energetik-BGU

Two out-of-form sides go head-to-head in the second match today from the Belarus Premier League when Neman Grodno host Energetik-BGU in a 6pm BST kick-off at the Neman Stadium. These two clubs are dangerously poised right now after a couple of weeks of poor results and another loss could set them down a negative path. However, a win could give the players a morale boost they need.

Neman Grodno are in 14th place and hovering precariously above the relegation places. Igor Kovalevich has seen his team only win 1 of their opening 5 league matches and it's now 3 league games without a victory. Just 1 goal scored in those matches shows exactly where the issue lies. The positive spin that can be put on their season so far is that they remain undefeated at home thus far with a win and a draw.

Energetik-BGU were looking like surprise title contenders after a few games but it has since been shown that football is a fickle game. Vladimir Belyavskiy's side won their first 3 league matches but have since suffered back-to-back defeats. The first of those defeats to Torpedo Zhodino could be argued wasn't a shock but the loss at home to Gorodeya last week was a huge blow. Still, they've shown the potential and with the club in 5th place right now a win here could win the critics back around.

This is a tricky one to call because Neman Grodno have still managed to hold their performances together at home. The jury remains out for Energetik-BGU. A very positive start has been dampened by the past couple of results. The bookies are narrowly backing a home win and I understand why. I just think the draw offers more value so I think that's the outcome I have to support. Not great odds on offer for total goals scored but I'll still cover that too for the under 2.5 option.

Draw @ 3.10 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.54 with 888Sport

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, allyhibs said:

I'm going for the away win here as well Stevie, it's not been the best start for Dinamo so far but here's a good chance for a result against one of the leagues minnows.

Where do you get the info from re. the new manager etc? I use soccerway but there's no info like that, also soccerways Belarus page doesn't seem to be working this morning.

Yeah, I use a few sites for researching form and statistics but the change in manager was simply through knowing the names of each manager and I noticed the Dinamo Minsk gaffer had changed. Did some additional checking and even though there wasn't any news about it I saw that Hurenka had left his position and Kuchuk had been appointed just a couple of days ago.

Link to post
Share on other sites

First game of the day is Smolevichi v Dinamo Minsk. Spreads have this in for 61 bookings points split 32-29. Ref Krasnikov has only handled 7 top flight games so not really much to go on. Cards a no bet for me; if I was betting with your money I might sell at 60, back <5.5 cards at 6/5 or 4-6 cards at 23/20 but none of those carry enough confidence for me to get involved.

The ref is yet to award a penalty in a top flight game but has awarded 11 in 33 games at the next level down. Given the trend for spot kicks this season, I'm on the following:

Buy penalty goal minutes at 13 with SX and back a penalty taken at 3/1 with Hills. They go 19/5 for a penalty scored but I'd make the taken price better value based on a typical conversion rate of 78% (based on English Prem) and it means I show a profit even if the pen isn't scored.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Yeah, I use a few sites for researching form and statistics but the change in manager was simply through knowing the names of each manager and I noticed the Dinamo Minsk gaffer had changed. Did some additional checking and even though there wasn't any news about it I saw that Hurenka had left his position and Kuchuk had been appointed just a couple of days ago.

Quality research mate :ok

Link to post
Share on other sites

The other game today is Neman Grodno v Energetik BGU where the spreads pitch bookings at 57.5 split 26-31.5. Ref Stetsurin has a low bookings average at first glance but seems to be on a steep upwards trajectory. Across 35 games it's 40.7, rising to 49 over the last 20 games and 68 for the 5 games this season. Difficult to judge when a short term blip becomes an established trend so best not to go in too heavy on this one. That said, I'll take a chance on the bookings bet mentioned below at the price (odds on elsewhere). I'm also doing the same penalty bets again as Stetsurin ranks quite highly on my PPI (penalty propensity index)! :eyes

60+ bookings points at evens with Skybet.
Buy penalty goal minutes at 14 with SX and back a penalty taken at 3/1 with Hills.
Also done the penalty double at 3/1 twice.

Edited by harry_rag
Added last line
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

First game of the day is Smolevichi v Dinamo Minsk. Spreads have this in for 61 bookings points split 32-29. Ref Krasnikov has only handled 7 top flight games so not really much to go on. Cards a no bet for me; if I was betting with your money I might sell at 60, back <5.5 cards at 6/5 or 4-6 cards at 23/20 but none of those carry enough confidence for me to get involved.

The ref is yet to award a penalty in a top flight game but has awarded 11 in 33 games at the next level down. Given the trend for spot kicks this season, I'm on the following:

Buy penalty goal minutes at 13 with SX and back a penalty taken at 3/1 with Hills. They go 19/5 for a penalty scored but I'd make the taken price better value based on a typical conversion rate of 78% (based on English Prem) and it means I show a profit even if the pen isn't scored.

So, penalty scored on 39th minute means 39 - 13 = 26/1, right?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, allyhibs said:

So, penalty scored on 39th minute means 39 - 13 = 26/1, right?

:ok Almost. 39 - 13 = 26 so I've won 26 times my stake. Still only playing £1 per point so it's a £26 profit plus the fixed odds win. 45 minutes for another one to really put the icing on the cake!

As I've risked 13 points to win 26 (so far) you could equate that to a 2/1 shot in which case you might feel the fixed odds option would have paid better. Obviously, though, the penalty could have come at any time from the 1st to 90th minute; that's just the degree of volatility that comes with spread betting. The advantage of the spread bet is that my bet's still running should any more pen's be scored. The fixed odds bet would be done and dusted unless I'd taken the (pretty poor) odds on offer for 2 or more penalties scored/awarded.

Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Ally, I'm loving it mate. Those of us that are getting invested in it has really been enjoyable.

You and me both mate. The football fan in me is getting his fix, the betting man in me is making a decent profit, all while learning about an obscure football league in a far off country. What's not to like :ok

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Ally, I'm loving it mate. Those of us that are getting invested in it has really been enjoyable.

Are you watching it Stevie? I've not been bothering, for me the enjoyment is having some stats to process, odds to look at and betting decisions to make. I've never bothered watching any sport streamed on the bookies' sites, never subscribed to a paid service so only ever had free to air sport to watch. These days I find that I watch no more than half the games I could watch even though there are fewer than ever.

Since I've started focusing on selling on the spreads I've found more and more of my bets are placed then I just check how they did after the event, I don't watch the event or even follow the progress of my bets online. I might stick a "fun bet" on something I'm watching but I doubt I watch more than 2% of the events I bet on.

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Are you watching it Stevie? I've not been bothering, for me the enjoyment is having some stats to process, odds to look at and betting decisions to make. I've never bothered watching any sport streamed on the bookies' sites, never subscribed to a paid service so only ever had free to air sport to watch. These days I find that I watch no more than half the games I could watch even though there are fewer than ever.

Since I've started focusing on selling on the spreads I've found more and more of my bets are placed then I just check how they did after the event, I don't watch the event or even follow the progress of my bets online. I might stick a "fun bet" on something I'm watching but I doubt I watch more than 2% of the events I bet on.

I've watched as much as I can. It's tough because it's through the Bet365 live stream so there's no commentary and it's hard to work out which player is which but it's football at the end of the day. I'm obsessed with the game. I watch it, play it, coach it, manage in it, and write about it. I absolutely get your enthusiasm for the stats. I love that side too. Picking out trends is a fascinating thing to do. Your approach is definitely a welcome addition to this thread. As we've seen, you've opened @allyhibs eyes! :lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

Slavia Mozyr vs FC Minsk

The Belarus Premier League offers us three matches today. The first of those games is up at 1pm BST when Slavia Mozyr host FC Minsk at the Yunost Stadium. Only 1 point separates these two sides in the table and with both clubs loitering in the mid-table area they'll be wanting to avoid defeat that could see them getting sucked into a potential relegation melee.

Slavia Mozyr are in 9th place but only 3 points off the top spot in the league table. That's proof of how tight this competition is after 5 league games. Mihail Martsinovich has witnessed his side fail to win either of their last two league games. However, the team remains unbeaten at home so far this season with 2 wins and a draw from those three matches with only 1 goal conceded.

FC Minsk briefly flirted with the top position in this division a few games ago. Andrey Razin's men won their opening two league games scoring six goals in the process but have failed to pick up a point or score a goal since and now sit in 13th place. The team is now just 1 point above the relegation play-off spot and with a win possibly seeing them fly up a few positions in the league table they'll be keen to stop the rot here.

Home form could be key this season and that is no truer a point than for Slavia Mozyr. Mid-table mediocrity last season could be improved on this season if they keep up this fantastic home record. They take on a fragile FC Minsk side who are in a bad place and could suffer more disappointment before things gets better. I can see a narrow home win in this one with FC Minsk's problems continuing.

Slavia Mozyr to Win @ 2.05 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.58 with Unibet

Link to post
Share on other sites

Profit again yesterday with Dinamo Minsk doing the business, also had a small bet on harry rag's penalty to be taken tip in that game also, just left the other game alone.

With the first leg of a Dinamo Minsk, BATE, Slutsk treble coming in yesterday, I'm going to leave the BATE game alone today, I'll maybe have a nibble on Slavia Mozyr but my main focus today will be the Dinamo Brest v Soligorsk game.

Last seasons champions have started this season slowly but they'll come good at some point, today looks a good opportunity for 3 points at home to a side who clearly struggle to score goals, 1 goal could be enough to win this and the odds on the home side look decent, plus Basil tells me he's always been a Brest man, that's good enough for me.

Dinamo Brest @ 2.60 (Hills) - 2 pts.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Gorodeya vs BATE Borisov

The second game taking place in the Belarus Premier League today is a 3pm BST kick-off between Gorodeya and BATE Borisov at the Gorodeya Stadium. Both of these sides are in impressive form right now and this match presents a big opportunity for them to continue this positive run of results as well as making a charge for the top spot in the league table.

Gorodeya are in the midst of a fine run of form having won their last 3 league matches. Oleg Radushko has guided his team to 4th place and a victory could send them top of the league if other results go their way. It's a brilliant start for a team that was nothing more than mid-table mediocrity last season. The inspirational Kiril Pavlyuchek has led by example as captain so far and it's no surprise that he's helped to lead the team to three consecutive clean sheets.

BATE Borisov continue to sit slightly lower in the league than their fans might hope in 10th place. After a dire start of back-to-back defeats, results have started to improve. Kirill Alshevsky knows the pressure will be on him once again if his team fail to get a result here. It's three league games undefeated for the former league champions and three clean sheets have been crucial to getting those points. They'll need another exemplary defensive display here against a very dogged opposition.

Well, this is a game between two of the most tightly-knit defensive units in the league right now. Neither side has conceded a goal in over 270 minutes of league football so the obvious option would be to choose a 0-0 draw. I was initially going to back a draw anyway but when I saw the form and the statistics it was an outcome that stood out even more. The bookies are backing BATE to get the win and that is tempting. I can only see a goal in this at the most. I'm probably going to go for the draw for the value but I do think BATE might sneak it by a single goal. I just need to see more from them before I start backing them to win matches on their travels.

Draw @ 3.75 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.88 with 888Sport

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dynamo Brest vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk

Our final preview for today's matches in the top flight of Belarus football comes at 5pm BST when we have Dynamo Brest versus Shakhtyor Soligorsk at the OSK Brestsky. These two sides are positioned towards the lower end of the table and both will be desperate to pick up a victory that would help move them up from the wrong end of the division to the higher echelons of the standings.

Dynamo Brest come into this game in 12th place but they are only 3 points off the top spot. Syarhey Kavalchuk's side have had mixed results so far this season and it's been this lack of consistency that has stunted their progress. One week drawing 1-1 at home against one of the lower placed teams in Smolevichi and then the next week beating current league leaders Slutsk 1-0 in their own backyard. If this team is to retain their league title then they need to start forming some consistency.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk are further down the table than their opponents for this game in 14th place. Yuriy Vernydub's men are only 3 points off the foot of the table. Only 1 win all season and no victories in 3 league matches has seen the team fall down the league table. 3 goals scored and 3 goals conceded in their 5 league matches tells the whole story in a campaign that has already witnessed two 0-0 draws. It's hardly entertaining stuff from the struggling side and considering they finished 3rd last season their fans will be desperately disappointed with the current state of affairs.

Talk about two fallen giants from last season. This is 1st versus 3rd if we're going by last season's table but this early season form is very underwhelming from both clubs. The odds are evenly split but I have to back Dynamo Brest to win this one. Playing at home and having shown slightly more quality, albeit in glimpses, means they surely have to boast the edge over a Shakhtyor Soligorsk side that looks like they've not even woken up yet.

Dynamo Brest to Win @ 2.65 with Sportingbet

BTTS @ 2.00 with Unibet

Link to post
Share on other sites

For today's opener, ref Dmitryev looks like an obvious "bet low" ref if you're going to get involved. This season's 2 games have yielded 65 and 40 points but he's a solid low to mid 30s average over 32, 20 or 11 (this season and last) games.

Straight sell of bookings to me; 56 both firms so I'll wait till nearer kick-off. Underwhelmed by the fixed odds option so just a token play on <5.5 cards at 1.97 with 888 (using the £10 and a bit I had on deposit).

Penalty stats are no better than neutral for this ref so it's a play but just about. Penalty awarded at 3/1 Hills and buy the pen goal mins at 14 with SX.

Done the penalty trixie on all 3 of today's games, 3/1 twice and 11/4 on the late game. (Well, I say the trixie but did the treble separate from the doubles to take advantage of the odds boost).

Link to post
Share on other sites

The second game is Gorodeya v BATE with ref Dolya at the helm. He's another low bookings ref with a solid 30s average though 2 50s so far this season. He's the best penalty prospect of the day though not one of the very top ranking. Probably a blip but he seems to have a penchant for more than one in a game.

Can't resist the usual bets; 3/1 pen taken Hills and buy pen mins at 16 with SPIN. Also a small bet on 2+ pens taken at 12/1 Skybet.

For bookings I'm happy to take 13/8 for <50 points at Skybet. Whether I'm happy with the limited stake allowed will depend on the outcome! Not inclined to sell the spreads at 49 though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 888888 said:

number 51 of dynamo brest missed two incredible opportunities to score in the first half, i seriously cannot believe he missed them both

Yeah, absolute sitters. The one when he hit the post, jeez!!!

Link to post
Share on other sites

FC Slutsk vs Belshina

Our final day of Belarus Premier League games brings us three matches. The first of those is a 12pm BST kick-off when FC Slutsk play Belshina at the City Stadium. The home side currently top the table and have an opportunity to extend their lead at the summit against an away team that prop up the whole league table at the bottom having failed to pick up a single win so far.

FC Slutsk have had a dream start to this campaign. Vitaliy Pavlov's men were nothing more than lower mid-table last season but with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their first 5 league matches they've stormed into 1st place. An ability to keep scoring had been key in allowing this side to keep the points board ticking over. The 1-0 loss at home to Dynamo Brest on the second weekend of the season now seems like a huge missed chance. If there is also a concern that is brewing it would be that they've only won 1 of their 3 home league games up to this point.

Belshina could not have imagined a worse start to their season. Eduard Gradoboyev and his players are rock bottom with just 2 points earned from their 5 league matches until now. The team began with three straight defeats in the league but the ship has been steadied slightly with back-to-back draws in their last two matches. A lack of attacking potency remains a problem for this side. Leonid Kovel offers an experienced head up top at 33 years old and with 2 goals he's doing his best but that's simply not enough. If they can start scoring then the defence hasn't been terrible so far. It could offer hope for a rise up the table.

The bookies are backing the home win and I think the price is reasonable enough to get on it. FC Slutsk have had their fragile moments at home but their attacking prowess should be enough to get them through this game. Belshina still lack that same attacking threat and that could be the difference here. A solid home win seems on the cards but I don't think we'll see many goals.

FC Slutsk to Win @ 1.80 with Boylesports

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.62 with Betdaq

Link to post
Share on other sites

A 2pt loss yesterday in the Belarus games after Din. Brest failed to win but a 2pt profit for the day after a drunk late night bet on Real Esteli in Nicaragua, made sweeter with the fact that I was going to bet on the draw but drunkenly clicked the wrong button.

With BATE winning yesterday, I'm now just waiting on a Slutsk win for the treble, so i'll leave that game alone. The one I like today is Ruh Brest, I don't know what it is but I quite like this side, very organised. They're a big price today so i'll have a small punt on the away win.

Ruh Brest @ 4.00 - 1pt.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Torpedo Zhodino vs Ruh Brest

The Belarus Premier League gives us an intriguing clash at 2pm BST today when Torpedo Zhodino face Ruh Brest at the Torpedo Stadium where the home side will look to keep the pressure on the teams up the top against an away side that are struggling to put a run of positive results together at this early stage in the season. Which way will this game go?

Torpedo Zhodino are technically joint top of the top flight in Belarus football but are down in 4th on goal difference. Yuri Puntus has seen his team lose just 1 of their opening 5 league matches. However, the beauty of statistics is that they can be twisted in all sorts of ways and it's now also just 1 win in their last 3 league games for this team. That shouldn't detract from the fact that this is a Torpedo side that has been clinical at home with two wins and two clean sheets.

Ruh Brest don't have as much to shout about as their opponents for this game. Aleksandr Sednyov's side are down in 13th place but they are only 3 points off the top spot and 4 points clear of the bottom two. The 1-0 win at home to FC Minsk last week ended a three game streak without a win but did it simply paper over the cracks. Before that, the team had failed to win or even score in back-to-back away matches. That sort of statistics doesn't bode well heading into a game like this.

The odds being offered by the bookies on a home win reflect the narrow 3 point gap separating these two teams. Ruh Brest notched up a tight 1-0 win away to Dinamo Minsk on the opening weekend that shows they can get victories on the road but that was a poor Dinamo side. This Torpedo team will be a much tougher proposition and I can see them getting the home win. Chucking a cheeky corners bet on because the value across this match isn't great.

Torpedo Zhodino to Win @ 2.20 with Sportingbet

Total Corners Over 9.5 @ 1.87 with 888Sport

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...