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Fader

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Well, it looked good after the first match but Anderson was at a 115 average during his win against Humphries. Another outright pick tonight in Dave Chisnall. It's been a while since we saw him win his group but critically he has been playing online since then and hopefully that keeps him sharp. Here's the other group members :

Group 4 :
D. Chisnall
D. Heta

G. Nentjes
D. Webster

I picked Heta to win his group when he won it, with a small worry on him playing in the early hours but it didn't bother him. I'm just not sure he can raise his levels tonight to match Chisnall. Nentjes looks a live chance tonight and an underrated chance. I'm going to side with Chisnall though. I have him at 20/1 to win this event and i'm going to go with him winning all 3 tonight.

5pts D. Chisnall to win all 3 matches 9/5 paddypower
1pt D. Chisnall to win all 3 matches and have most 180s 7/1 paddypower

 

 

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Chisnall so close to winning all 3. so typically apt that he makes me lose my bet but still manages to make it through, but i suppose it keeps the 20/1 live and now he will be in the final 16. 

I like Ryan Searle tonight. I think I backed him when he first won his group and he did it with ease. He had some top performances there and was standout. Woodhouse joins him here and Woodhouse has been the best performance we've seen in this event, but do we think it will be matched tonight? I'm not so sure:

L. Woodhouse
R. Cross
R. Searle
D. Larsson

Cross was very lucky to get through his group, however you could see he was finding it hard with his loss back then. I will have a small bet on him as cover if he turns up tonight

4pts R Searle to win Group 5 9/4 paddypower
1pt R. Searle to win all his matches 5/1 paddypower
1pt R. Cross to win all his matches 6-0.6-1.6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 5/1 paddypower

 

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can't catch a break here. On to tonight Here's the group:

J.Cullen
M. Kleermaker
C. Dobey
J. Smith

I think I'm with Cullen tonight. His qualification to the last 32 was pretty special albeit at the second attempt. He has the throw in his match against Dobey and that will help. I'll also take Kleermaker. In cover, I'll take Dobey to win all his matches. This cover should have came in lastnight at a big price with Cross but he decided to hit something like a 78 average in his last match, 

2pts J.Cullen to win all his matches 5/1 paddypower
2pts C. Dobey to win all his matches 6-0. 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 11/2 paddypower


 

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Cullen wins all three matches to hit a 5/1. A much needed 8pts profit.

Tonight is Nathan Aspinall's chance to get to the next round but he has one serious group to get through. This group consists of :

Group 7 :
N. Aspinall
J. Hughes
J, De Sousa
J. Noguera

De Sousa was pretty impressive in his win of Group 25. He averaged 110, 98 and 107 in his 3 matches and although it was against nobody who played particularly well, anything like that tonight is going to win him the group. Aspinall won all 3 of his matches also, but his averages were 91, 99 and 86 which is a planet away from De Sousa. Hughes looks a good outsider option. He managed averages of 97, 88 and 91 in his 3 wins. That doesn't set the world alight and he will need to improve that but he is more than capable and a nicer price than the other 2 above him in the betting. I think we can rule out Noguera. His averages were in the 80s and late 70s at one point and I think he may have a clean sweep of losses tonight in this calibre of opponent.

I know De Sousa really wants to win this. He has talked about being the first person to win this event and being a big sports star in Portugal. He actually beat Aspinall the last time they met 6-2 in a Players Championship. He has also beaten Noguera 6-2 in a similar event. Aspinall has beaten Noguera 6-0 already this year and has him up first, so I would expect a similar kind of result and perhaps would mean someone would need to win all 3 to qualify here.

I think based on the odds (Aspinall odds on, De Sousa 5/2, Hughes 4/1) I think the value is on Hughes. I'll have some cover on Aspinall winning every match, as I think he will start well tonight. I'll also have an accy against Noguera

2pts J.Hughes to win Group 7 4/1 bet365
2pts N. Aspinall to win all his matches 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 4/1 paddypower
1pt accy - N. Aspinall -2.5 legs Vs Noguera / De Sousa -2.5 legs Vs Noguera / J. Hughes -1.5 legs Vs Noguera 5/1 betfair 

 

 

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Not much shown by Hughes, but Aspinall wins all 3 within the score brackets to make it another +5pt profit for the night. The accy was very close as Noguera did lose all three but he also played better than I thought he would and managed a couple more legs than predicted. Tonight's group :


Group 8 :
J. Clayton
S Waites

M. Hopp
C. Wilkinson

Somehow, Max Hopp starts as a second favourite in this despite his illness that he has just recovered from and the fact his averages in his group win were pretty much all under 90. Don't understand that but makes abit more value on the guy I'm picking which is Scott Waites. I took him when he won Group 27 and I'll take him again tonight. His 3 winning averages were 97, 91 and 99. Clayton is the favourite and rightly so, he beat Waites 10-7 already this year but Waites is the value.

Once again I will take some cover with Clayton. This group could very well go down to the Clayton Vs Waites match, which is the very first match. Starting well will be the key.

2pts S. Waites to win Group 8 5/2 betfair
2pts J. Clayton to win all matches 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 15/2 paddypower 

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Waites was abit unlucky tonight. Losing to Clayton in the first and then dropping just one leg in the next two matches but Clayton wins all 3 and wins them with ease to bring another +13ots profit today and to finally take this thread back into a profit.

PDC Home Tour bets +2pts

We're now into the Semi-finals. The final 8. Here is the two groups :

Group A :
G. Anderson
D. Chisnall
J. Klaasen
M. De Decker

Group B :
R. Cross
J. Cullen
N. Aspinall
J. Clayton


The top 2 from each group will go through to a final 4 group on Friday. Early thoughts, I like Chisnalls group for getting through. I think Cullen is a good outsider as I do not believe Cross will make it through to the final 2. 

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We will know 2 of the final 4 by the end of tonight. Gary Anderson is the favourite and rightly so. I think he probably wins this group tonight but I'm hoping outright pick Dave Chisnall can make the top 2 at worst. We saw with Klaasen that he can have moments where he just rattles off legs and scores very heavily. He thrashed Peter Wright to sneak in and win the group and although on whole he may not have been super impressive, he is a live threat to Anderson and Chisnall. De Decker also has taken out big players like Gen Durrant.

I'm not going to go too heavy with this group. I have Chisnall to qualify for this in a sense and the only bet I will take it Anderson to win all his matches -1.5 effectively. 

2pts G. Anderson to win all his matches 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 11/2 paddypower

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Could NOT be any more unlucky on Anderson last night. 3 wins, 6-3, 6-2 and 6-5 and the 6-5 he was 6-2 up and let it get back to 5-5. Typical.

2nd Semi-final day today and by end of play we'll know the final 4 of the tournament. Group for tonight :

R. Cross
N. Aspinall
J. Cullen
J Clayton

I think tonight's group is stronger than lastnights and I think any of the 4 could win it. I'm not convinced by Rob Cross though and he's one I'm putting a line through.The odds on Aspinall is alittle short. I think Cullen and Clayton both look decent value tonight. I'll take Aspinall as cover once again but I'll go for Clayton.

2pts J. Clayton to win group 5/1 betfred
2pts N. Aspinall to win every match 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 7/1 paddypower

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Clayton wins the group. +8 for the day and +8pts for the tournament. 

The final tonight. Here's the final 4 line-up :

Anderson 13/8
Aspinall 6/4
Clayton 9/2
Klaasen 13/2

Standout value for me is Clayton. Cover on Anderson. Klaasen has coasted through this in my opinion with the odd good performance when it's needed. Aspinall has been great in patches, as has Anderson but for me Clayton has been the most consistent. 

2pts J. Clayton to win PDC Home Tour 9/2 betfair
1pt G. Anderson to win every match 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4 7/1

PDC Home Tour bets +8pts

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

Not the final night you were hoping for @Fader but hats off for sticking at this from the start. I'm sure plenty have benefited from the time you've spent previewing each day :ok

Yeah, +5pts in the end. Could have been alot better but Darts is very fine lines isn't it. thank you mate

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