Betting after lockdown

[giraldi]

Probably most of us are wondering if the (successful) strategies available before the lockdown will work after the season is resumed

 

First of all,  my opinion is that during the lockdown was a bad idea to bet unless you have info about the teams involved in Belarusian second league. On other words, it would have been a kind of lotto for me but for a guy that lives in Belarus would have been a gold mine. As he knows the teams and the players will find easier the value especially because there will be a lot of guys like me that don-t even can read correctly the teams name.    

 

Now, regarding the betting after the lockdown, I was curious what happened last 10 seasons considering the games where the home team have not played for at least 2 weeks. (there is no data for a larger interval between games)

Because I have the data I calculated what happened if the interval between 2 games was under 3 games.

 

I noted

T1 - top teams  ELO>2000 at the game's moment

T2 - average teams  ELO>1700 at the game's moment

T3 - bottom teams

 

Here is the graph only for "Home Win" market. How to read it, see the highlighted selection

Please note that T1-T3 and T3-T1 had not so many games but for example, T1-T2 had a good sample.

 

(T1-T2)  means all the games between (Top teams - Average teams) played last 10 seasons

 

1. The first column (blue) - 74.47% of total games were won by the home teams

 

2. The second column(red) - 77.59% of the games were home team played the last games less than 3 days ago were won by the home team

 

3. The third column (green) - 55.56%  of the games were home team played the last games more than 15 days ago were won by the home team

 

 

 

 

As a first conclusion it-s easy to see that if the interval between games is  reduced, the top teams won more games than usual  but if the interval is larger  they won just a little bit over 50%

 

Now, just after the lockdown, we are in the column 3 situation so have to try to find value in laying top teams. After 1-2 rounds will be in the column 2 situation and for sure will try to back the top teams.  

Of course, will need to check all the available info but I think this will be the trend.

Edited April 15, 2020 by giraldi

[giraldi]

Another interesting picture:

I generated the ELO graph for top 5 teams in Premier, starting with 2005 season, almost 600 games.

1. There is a general downward trend, obviously.

2. Without underestimating the merits of Leicester, something happened to top5 in the 2016 season.

 

[giraldi]

Following a few suggestions, I made a zoom to 2016 season and added Leicester.

Extremely interesting.

All big 5 dropped below 2000 ELO points at the same time (probability < 0.5 %), exactly when Leicester went to it's maximum ever, a little bit over big 5 average.

[giraldi]

Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field.
It is impossible to fix it but we can try something.

Example:....

Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1

Shots on target: 4-10
Ball possession: 34-66

Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3
would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?