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Premier League Predictions > Apr 16th - 18th


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Energetik-BGU vs Gorodeya

Thanks for your early thoughts, @allyhibs! Let us know what Basil says! :lol The first game of this weekend's matches is up at 3:30pm BST today when joint leaders Energetik-BGU play mid-table Gorodeya at the RTsOP-BGU Stadium in Minsk. The bookies are favouring a home win and it's easy to see why but is there any value in backing the visitors to take something from this game?

Energetik-BGU started the season with a bang having won their three opening league games. However, a 2-0 loss away to Torpedo Zhodino last weekend put a halt to that run of form. Uladzimir Byalyawski will be demanding a reaction from his team as they look to stay in touch with the team that beat them last week who also currently lead the league table on head-to-head record. One thing you are guaranteed with an Energetik-BGU home game is goals with the team having scored 15 in their last 6 matches played on home turf including pre-season friendlies.

Gorodeya have experienced a solid start to the season. It is probably in line with the pre-season expectations set by the club's hierarchy. Aleh Radushka's men had a slow start with two defeats to Vitebsk and Shakhtyor Soligorsk but they have since earned back-to-back wins against Belshina and Dinamo Minsk with clean sheets kept in both of those games. Just 2 goals scored in their opening 4 games remains a concern and that's what is holding me off backing them to take something from this game.

This is a game where the home side will show their potential title credentials. The loss last week was a blow but it would have been an unreal start Energetik-BGU's season had they won. The focus now is returning to winning ways. I think they have enough to get that win. Gorodeya are proving hard to beat at their worst but laborious at their best. A narrow home win is on the cards and I also wouldn't blame anyone backing a clean sheet.

Energetik-BGU to Win @ 1.73 with Boylesports

Draw HT/ Energetik-BGU FT @ 4.33 with Betway

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Dinamo Minsk vs Neman Grodno

The second game being played today in the Belarus Premier League is a 5:30pm BST kick-off between Dinamo Minsk and Neman Grodno at the Dinamo Stadium in Minsk. Both of these teams will be keen to add points to their early season tally that has perhaps been considered a little disappointing. A win here could give these clubs a much-needed boost where as a defeat could be equally as detrimental.

Dinamo Minsk are in shocking form to start this campaign with the club in 14th place. Manager Syarhey Hurenka will be even more frustrated by the fact that his team have shown their full potential at times only to go on and lose 3 of their opening 4 league games. It means the title is already a distant proposition and the goal must now surely be adjusted to simply qualifying for European competition. The 2-0 win over current league leaders Torpedo Zhodino a couple of weeks ago seems a far away memory. A convincing win is needed as soon as possible to keep the hounds from the door.

Neman Grodno will be coming into this game smelling blood. Ihar Kavalyevich has witnessed his team win 1, draw 2, and lose just 1 league game. It sees the club currently in 11th place. It's around and about where you might expect them to finish but the fact they've only lost that single game this season will have their fans wondering if this team has enough to finish in the top half of the table. Due to that solitary loss coming on the opening day of the season, this team is now unbeaten in 3 league games. However, they've failed to win their last 4 games on the road, including friendlies, and only managing to score 2 goals in those matches.

It's hard for me to admit when the only team I've had a close affiliation with (on Football Manager!) in Belarus is letting me down consistently. Dinamo Minsk are a side in disarray right now but I still believe they can turn it around. Neman Grodno will provide stern opposition here and the question for me is whether Dinamo have enough to take the full 3 points or will be held to a draw. I'm going to be optimistic and back the home win. I believe, Dinamo! I believe!

Dinamo Minsk to Win @ 1.87 with Boylesports

BTTS No @ 1.65 with BetVictor

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Good luck guys. For today's opening visit to the craps table (Energetik BGU v Gorodeya) my thoughts are as follows.

Ref Tsinkevich averages 36.83 over his last 30 top flight games. 19 saw less than 4 cards, 9 between 4-6 and just 2 over 6. 23 went under 50 points, 3 bang on and 4 over. Definitely a "bet low" ref for me. He's got a couple of zeros and 3 10 pointers in those 30 games.

Home team's 4 games this season have averaged 58.75 points with them averaging over 40. For the away team it's 65 total and 20 for them. So the home team has picked up 70% of the bookings in their games but the away team just 31%.

Spread quote is 52-55 with a difference of opinion on who is likely to get most cards, with the home team narrowly favourites.

Crunching all of the above leads me to the following bets (with severely limited stakes in most cases):

Sell at 52 (or higher; will place nearer to kick off)
<40, 50 and 60 points at 7/2, 2/1 and evens with Sky Bet
No cards shown at 100/1 and bookings points match tied at 5/1 also with Sky Bet
<4.5 cards shown at 6/4 and home team most cards at 41/20 with 888
Home team >20 points at 11/8 PP

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The other game today is Dinamo Minsk v Neman Grodno and it's a case of going low again though without quite such encouraging stats.

Ref Kugheli averages 43.81 over my 21 game sample, 9 <4 cards, 9 between 4-6 and 3 >6. 14 games went <50, 2 bang on and 5 over. Of the 8 games the teams have played this season only 2 went <50 (one each) with 2 (also 1 each) landing bang on. 5 of the last 6 head to head meetings went <50 and around 59% of my overall sample were under that total.

For me it's a sell at around 54 and just a few fixed odds bets with Sky Bet; <50 at 2/1, <45 at 9/4 and most bookings tied at 5/1.

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1 hour ago, allyhibs said:

Sorry @harry_rag, spread betting is like a foreign language to me. Hope you won 👍

Lol, it’s no more complicated than Play Your Cards Right (it’s certainly not 3-2-1). :)

Did ok overall ta. Just a single (home team) yellow card in the 1st game for a make up of 10 points so won 44 x stake on the spreads and landed most of the fixed odds bets. 6 yellows for 60 points in the other game so lost 6 x stake and the modest fixed odds stakes.

Well done with your bets guys, back for more tomorrow.

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8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Lol, it’s no more complicated than Play Your Cards Right (it’s certainly not 3-2-1). :)

Did ok overall ta. Just a single (home team) yellow card in the 1st game for a make up of 10 points so won 44 x stake on the spreads and landed most of the fixed odds bets. 6 yellows for 60 points in the other game so lost 6 x stake and the modest fixed odds stakes.

Well done with your bets guys, back for more tomorrow.

Nope, still gobbledygook to me. Well done though, I think !  🙂

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Belshina vs Smolevichi

The second day of action in the Belarus Premier League is here and we're looking to build on yesterday's mixed bag of results with two more previews. The first of those is a 3:30pm BST clash between Belshina versus Smolevichi that will take place at the Spartak Stadium. This is a battle between the league's bottom two teams so both will be hoping to get their first league win of the season.

Belshina haven't quite enjoyed a triumphant start to their first season in the top flight after promotion from the second tier as they would have hoped. Eduard Gradoboyev has seen his side struggle to adapt to life at this level with just 1 point gained from their first 4 league matches. Three straight defeats opened their campaign with two of those game failing to see any goals scored by Belshina. However, a 1-1 draw away to Neman Grodno showed a glimmer of hope that maybe they can compete this season.

Smolevichi aren't faring much better than their opponents for this game. Aleksandr Brazevich's men are in 15th place having only managed to get 2 points so far with draws against Dinamo Brest and Shakhtyor Soligorsk. Failure to score in their last three league games is a huge concern that needs to be addressed. The team can't afford to rely on Vladislav Mukhamedov for their goals.

Matches like this early in the season between two teams that are struggling can really crank the pressure up on managers at the wrong end of the table. Both Belshina and Smolevichi know that a loss won't end their season but the potential impact on squad mentality could be massive. That's especially the case for the home side as they look to show they belong at this level. I am torn between backing a home win and draw. Even though the sensible money seems to be on a draw I am going to let my football romantic side take over and back the home win.

Belshina to Win @ 2.70 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.25 with Unibet

 

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Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs FC Slutsk

The top flight in Belarus football is only four league games into the season but it's a very tightly-contested league with almost every game hard to call right now. Shakhtyor Soligorsk host FC Slutsk in this 5:30pm BST kick-off at the Stroitel Stadium and it's another example of how there's very little to separate these two sides coming into this game. Let's see how they are both set for this game.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk haven't had the worst starts to their season but Yuriy Vernydub will be trying to put emphasis on the fact his team have only lost 1 of their opening 4 league games despite being down in 12th place. A problem that the manager won't be able to hide from is the fact that the team have failed to win or score in any of their last 3 matches across all competitions. It's also two matches at home without a win or a goal scored this season so home advantage hasn't been proven for this club yet.

FC Slutsk will be happier than their opponents heading into this game. Vitaliy Pavlov's side are 4th and only 2 points off the top spot. Goals are not an issue by and large for this side. They've managed to score 3 goals in two separate games already this season. One of those came in the last away game which was a 3-2 win at Isloch. This will be a tough challenge but if any side can cause Shakhtyor Soligorsk issues then it'll be this team that is so dangerous in the final third.

Matches like this are hugely tricky to call at this stage in the season. Shakhtyor Soligorsk are a side that I expect to see improve over the coming weeks. FC Slutsk will provide a stern test for them but I think a home win is on the cards. FC Slutsk haven't played a tougher team yet this season so I remain to be convinced that they can keep up the pace they've set.

Shakhtyor Soligorsk HT/FT @ 2.20 with SpreadEx

BTTS @ 2.55 with Unibet

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Shakhtyor v Slutsk.

After a pretty good chat with Basil, I'm going to go slightly against you @StevieDay1983

Shakhtyor haven't got off to the best start to the season, they clearly struggle to score goals but a plus point is they also don't concede many, I think that could change today against the leagues highest scorers. Slutsk have got off to a decent start but they're prone to lapses at the back which Shaktyor could take advantage of.

I was tempted to go for BTTS but Basil pointed out it was less risky to just back Slutsk to score, I checked the odds and I like it, I'll also throw some change on the away win, price is massive.

Slutsk To Score @ 2.10 (Hills) - 2 pts.

 

 

 

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Ok, brief attempt to translate the gobbledygook before I plough into today's bets! Bets on bookings points are based on 10 points per yellow card shown and 25 points per red (with a 2nd yellow card resulting in a red counting as 25). A fixed odds bet on <50 points will win if there are no more than 4 yellows (40 points) or 2 with a red (45) but 5 or more yellows or 3 with a red turn the bet into a loser. If a spread bet involves selling at 50, anything below that is a winner and anything above is a loss. Exactly 50 sees me break even. The more right you are, the more you win, the more wrong you are, the more you lose. So 2 yellow cards = 20 points and I win 30 x my stake (because 50-20 = 30).. 8 yellow and a red = 105 points so I'd lose 55 times my stake. As this league is unfamiliar and low grade I'm only staking £1 per point, so a 30 point loss is £30. I'm sure that's not made it any clearer whatsoever but I've written it now!

First up today we have Belshina Bobruisk v FC Smolevichi. Ref Naumov averages 44 points over his last 30 games, 15 seeing <4 cards, 9 between 4-6 and 6 going >6. 17 went <50 points, 3 bang on and 10 over. It's noticeable that his last 10 games tell a very different story; the average is 61 points, only 1 went <4 cards, 6 between 4-6 and 3 going >6. Only 3 went <50, 1 bang on and 6 over. He's shown a red card in 4 of those 10 games including the last 3, having not shown any others in his last 30 games. So, key question is do we assume he's turned into a card maniac or trust the larger sample and assume it's a blip? At the prices, I'm more inlcined towards the blip view.

The home team's 4 games this season average just 32.5 points (12.5 for them) while the away team's average 73.75 (40 for them).

I'll be selling on the spreads nearer to kick off, currently 56 to sell. I've taken these fixed odds bets:

<40 points at 4/1, <45 at 9/4, <50 at 2/1 and <60 at 11/10 and no cards shown at 100/1, all with Sky Bet
<4.5 cards shown at 21/10 with 888
4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

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45 minutes ago, allyhibs said:

Cheers @harry_rag, for the first time in my life, I now understand spread betting a little bit, nice one 👍

Seems kinda risky though, not sure it's for me.

Depends on the markets you choose and how you stake them. Buying (betting high) is usually less risky than selling as you have a known downside with a potentially unlimited upside. Sellers are usually trying to nick constant small profits but risk occasional big losses. For that reason, there are a lot more buyers than sellers so, where there's value to be had, it's usually to be found by selling (as I've recently learned to my considerable benefit). Just for fun, here's 3 potential spread bets you could place based on your thoughts on Slutsk in the next match. I'll put up the outcome after the game.

1 - Sell time of 1st Slutsk goal for £1 at 69 (so you want them to score before 69 minutes)

2 - Buy Slutsk total goal minutes for £1 at 35 (the aggregate time of all the goals they score)

3 - Buy Slutsk win index for £4 at 5.5 (awards 0 if they lose, 10 points for the draw and 25 if they win)

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Depends on the markets you choose and how you stake them. Buying (betting high) is usually less risky than selling as you have a known downside with a potentially unlimited upside. Sellers are usually trying to nick constant small profits but risk occasional big losses. For that reason, there are a lot more buyers than sellers so, where there's value to be had, it's usually to be found by selling (as I've recently learned to my considerable benefit). Just for fun, here's 3 potential spread bets you could place based on your thoughts on Slutsk in the next match. I'll put up the outcome after the game.

1 - Sell time of 1st Slutsk goal for £1 at 69 (so you want them to score before 69 minutes)

2 - Buy Slutsk total goal minutes for £1 at 35 (the aggregate time of all the goals they score)

3 - Buy Slutsk win index for £4 at 5.5 (awards 0 if they lose, 10 points for the draw and 25 if they win)

Mmmm,

I understand no1, I think. If they score in the 1st minute, I win my stake, £1 x68. If they score in the last minute, I lose my stake, £1 x21. Yes?

No.2 - nope, dunno.

no.3 - might as well be written in Belarussian

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Half time update.

1 - Sell time of 1st Slutsk goal for £1 at 69 (so you want them to score before 69 minutes) - they scored after 25 minutes so bet settled, you win £44 (69 -25).

2 - Buy Slutsk total goal minutes for £1 at 35 (the aggregate time of all the goals they score) - they scored in the 25th and 45th minutes so their total goal minutes are 70 already (a minimum profit of £35). You have the option of closing your bet at 87 and guaranteeing a profit of £52 but where's the fun in that; let's let it ride!

3 - Buy Slutsk win index for £4 at 5.5 (awards 0 if they lose, 10 points for the draw and 25 if they win) - at 2-0 up at half time you're looking good for the 25 points for the win, a profit of £78 (25 - 5.5 = 19.5 x your £4 stake). You could close the bet at 19 for a profit of £54 but that wouldn't appeal to me.

 

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No change to bets 2 and 3 in the second half so you would indeed have won £35 on the goal minutes and £78 on the win index. The early red card after the break could have had worse consequences but the hosts only managed a late consolation goal. Well done on the bets you did have.

A bad day at the office for me on the bookings points with make ups of 90 (9 yellows) and 85 (6 yellows and a red) for losses of £34 and £37 on the sells plus a wipeout on the fixed odds bets.

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I kinda understand the spread betting now @harry_rag, thanks for all that 👍

Good day for me, puts me 12 points up after 8 days, not bad at all. Unlucky with your cards bets, it didn't look a dirty game to me, ref seemed very fussy and card happy, one to remember in the future.

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Isloch vs Slavia Mozyr

It's early on a lazy Saturday morning so I thought I'd scramble together a preview for the midday kick-off between Isloch and Slavia Mozyr scheduled to take place at the FC Minsk Stadium. Both of these clubs have had satisfactory starts to their season so they'll be determined to add another win to their record in order to keep the early campaign momentum going.

Isloch are in 11th place but it's probably an unfair position given that they share the same number of points as the three teams above them and are only 3 points behind 2nd place. Vitaly Zhukovsky has witnessed his team suffer back-to-back defeats in the league. However, he'll take heart from the fact that his side have won 2 of their 3 home league games this season so far. 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches in all competitions, including friendlies, has been slightly damaged by conceding 6 goals in their last 2 matches. This is a big chance for the defence to get its house in order once again.

Slavia Mozyr know that a victory here would make people stand up and take notice. Mihail Martinsovich's side are in 5th place and just 3 points off the top spot. The team is now unbeaten in their last 3 league matches and haven't conceded in their last 2 league games. Their last away trip saw an impressive 2-1 victory away to Dinamo Brest. It's still too early to tell if Slavia are just starting well or if the days of 8th place finishes are behind them and they'll take the next step up.

The way Isloch started the season I thought they were looking dark horse shouts for European qualification contention. The defence was tightly-knit, the goals were coming, and they were playing with confidence. Unfortunately, the past two games have been a disaster. Slavia Mozyr know this is an Isloch team ripe for picking apart. Those defensive issues are a red flag for me. How a team can go from being so solid at the back to a calamity in such a short space of time is extremely worrying. I think the value being offered on Slavia winning is a big risk but I fancy taking that risk. I was going to go for a draw but I think my morning tea has got me riled!

Slavia Mozyr to Win @ 3.60 with Bet365

BTTS @ 2.10 with Bet365

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