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Three Day Treble (Horses)


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4th today

Sabbathical 14.20 Sedgefield @ 7\4 (bog)

Benefited from a first-time visor when readily defying his lower hurdles mark under this jockey at Carlisle 5 days ago. Looks the one to beat if the race doesn't come too soon. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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Excellent return yesterday 1st @ 4\1  Update : SIngles Overall : Year 2 : Trebles : Bolshoi Ballet  15.45 Leopardstown @ 11\8 (bog) Promising type. Cour

Well now that Cheltenham is over we are back to normal life, if this coronavirus would go away. How many times would you pick three winners in a day and actually have them done in a treble ? How

1st @ 6\5 today ..... Treble Up  returns 18.22 Inn the Bull 18.35 Chepstow @ 9\4 (bog) Took advantage of his reduced mark over hurdles at Huntingdon (2m) 11 days ago. Had a bit in hand and a

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3rd today

Cristal Pallas cat 16.40 Kempton @ 5\2 (bog)

Modest gelding. C&D winner. Latest win at Lingfield in February. Respectable fourth of 9 in handicap at Chelmsford City (8f, 6/1) 27 days ago. Has to be taken seriously in this grade. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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1st @ 3\1 today

Don Herbager 13.10 Hexham @ 6\4 (bog)

Has upped his game since switched to chasing, winning at Exeter (3m) and Leicester (23f) this year. Increased test of stamina now should suit and can make light of a further 7 lb rise. 

Treble - 2nd Leg - 4 Pts Win

Double - 2nd Leg - 4 Pts Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

 

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5th today

Ballyellis 13.10 Fakenham @ 2\1 (bog)

Thrived in plating hurdling company in autumn 2019, racking up 4 wins. Big player if hitting the ground running after 13 months away. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st  Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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1st @ 7\2 yesterday

Regarde 13.20 Wexford @ 7\4 (bog)

€65,000 3-y-o, Kapgarde gelding. Dam, ran once over hurdles in France, half-sister to fairly useful hurdler (stayed 2½m) Sabre Hongrois. Lots to like on paper for in-form duo. 

Treble - 2nd Leg - 4.5 Pts Win

Double - 2nd Leg - 4.5 Pts Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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Posted (edited)

6th today

The Mighty Arc 13.50 Carlisle @ 5\4 (bog)

Placed on second start in Irish points. From a good NH family and showed aptitude for hurdling 12 weeks on from finishing down the field in a bumper when third of 11 in a decent race at Chepstow.

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

Edited by Xtc12
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2nd today

Golan Cloud 15.40 Kelso @ 9\4 (bog)

Creditable placed efforts at Hexham in November/December. Absent since, but he opened his account in this race 12 months ago following a similar break. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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Non Runner today

Hillcrest 16.55 Wetherby @ 6\4 (bog)

Cost €190,000 as a 3yo and demonstrated a good deal of ability when runner-up at Doncaster first time out. That race has already thrown up a few winners, so he's up to going one better.

Treble - 2nd Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 2nd Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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1st @ 6\4 today .... double Up pays 2.50

Mr Glass 15.47 Haydock @ 8\11 (bog)

Brother to a bumper winner and confirmed his debut promise when readily off the mark at Wetherby 87 days ago, forging clear from a next-time-out winner. Capable of defying the penalty.

Treble - 3rd Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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1st @ 8\11 R4 35p reduction .... Very Small treble Up

Bignorm 14.37 Chepstow @ 5/2 (bog)

Hasn't had much racing over fences and looked better than ever when bolting up at Leicester 13 days ago. Should take all the beating if in the same form. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 2nd Leg - 1.47 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

 

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3rd today

Glengarry 17.10 Newcastle @ 3\1 (bog)

C&D winner. Eleven runs since last win in 2019. 7/2, respectable second of 11 in handicap at this C&D 15 days ago, no match for winner. Eased 1 lb. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

 

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3rd today

Crantock Bay 15.20 Kempton @ 15\8 (bog)

Excuses for his last 2 defeats at Newcastle and had been knocking at the door prior to that. This may finally be his day. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

 

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2nd yesterday ..... not much around today !

Guru 13.55 Doncaster @ 6\5 (bog)

Looked useful when scoring on 7f Newbury debut last July. Turned over at short odds at Kempton the following month but likely better judged on that opening win and remains a very useful prospect. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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5th today

Jersey Wonder 16.10 Fontwell @ 9\4 (bog)

Useful stayer on Flat for Jamie Osborne. Stepped up on hurdles debut effort when third in a maiden here (17.7f, soft) recently and may have more to offer upped in trip on handicap bow in this sphere. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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On 3/13/2021 at 11:00 PM, Xtc12 said:

What are my expectations : for the trebles,in about 12 months I hope to be somewhere about 45.5% ROI and the singles about 5% :hope . As we are chasing trebles we will have "Long Losing Runs"

Excellent returns on the singles. 

What is the logic behind the 45.5% expected return for the trebles? Statistically over the long term I would expect the returns from the accumulators to be the same as the returns from the singles.

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40 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

What is the logic behind the 45.5% expected return for the trebles? Statistically over the long term I would expect the returns from the accumulators to be the same as the returns from the singles.

It’s late so I could be talking nonsense but I assume it’s the concept of if you have an edge then you multiply it by backing doubles or trebles etc. So if you expect a positive return from singles you expect a better one from doubles or trebles but, as the odds are bigger you get more variability in the short term down to luck, e.g. 3 winners may or may not land in the same treble.

Put another way, if you back even money shots that should be odds on, there’s a bigger edge on the 7/1 treble than there is on the even money singles. You’d need a larger sample size though, to be confident about the performance of the 7/1 shots.

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I've had a think about it and it's given me a headache ! Is it better than level stakes?

I think it depends on how you calculate the stake. If you have 3 winners in a row at 2/1 you win 26 points. Is your stake 1 point or 13 points, i.e. you are betting 1 point on horse A, 3 points on horse B and 9 points on horse C.

I suppose it's really a staking plan where you increase the stakes after a winner.

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Hopefully @Xtc12 will set us right!

I was thinking in terms of, say backing singles at even money with an edge of 5%. If you put those 3 selections in a 7/1 treble you have an edge of more like 16%. But, over any given sample, luck will dictate whether your strike rate for trebles is better or worse than expected based on the number of winning singles.

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Well say I start a treble today, singles will be done also. The treble turns out to be a winning treble. Let's say the odds are 3/1, 2/1, Evens.

My three singles will give me a return of 9pts a profit of 6 pts. that is on an outlay of 3 Pts for a ROI of 200%.

Now if I do the same horses in my treble it will return 24 pts for a 1 pt bet giving me a profit of 23 pts and an ROI of 2300%.

 

I hope this clears up why my reasoning of having a higher expected return for the trebles than the singles.

 

 

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I had tested this for a year previous to starting this thread and for the two years the trebles are showing a ROI of 43.52 % while for the same period the singles are showing a ROI of 10.94%. So basically that is where I got my original expectations.

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1st @ 9\4 today

Khatm 17.10 Wolverhampton @ 6\4 (bog)

Tremendous buy for connections and made it 5 wins from his last 6 starts in 6-runner handicap at Southwell (7.1f) 11 days ago. Hasn't reached his ceiling and sure to go well again back up in trip.

Treble - 2nd Leg - 3.25  Pts Win

Double - 2nd Leg - 3.25  Pts Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

 

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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

Well say I start a treble today, singles will be done also. The treble turns out to be a winning treble. Let's say the odds are 3/1, 2/1, Evens.

My three singles will give me a return of 9pts a profit of 6 pts. that is on an outlay of 3 Pts for a ROI of 200%.

Now if I do the same horses in my treble it will return 24 pts for a 1 pt bet giving me a profit of 23 pts and an ROI of 2300%.

 

I hope this clears up why my reasoning of having a higher expected return for the trebles than the singles.

However if the last horse lost the singles will give a profit of 4 pts for a ROI of 67%. The treble loses so is a loss of 100%.

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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

I had tested this for a year previous to starting this thread and for the two years the trebles are showing a ROI of 43.52 % while for the same period the singles are showing a ROI of 10.94%. So basically that is where I got my original expectations.

This is such a massive difference that it suggests we should ignore singles and only back in trebles. I expect that over a larger sample the numbers will begin to converge.

Having said that I have just tested one of my systems and at LSP it is 20% but the treble selections have a return of 100% !

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16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

However if the last horse lost the singles will give a profit of 4 pts for a ROI of 67%. The treble loses so is a loss of 100%.

@MCLARKE yes in total agreement with you and 

 

On 3/28/2021 at 11:01 PM, MCLARKE said:

Excellent returns on the singles. 

What is the logic behind the 45.5% expected return for the trebles? Statistically over the long term I would expect the returns from the accumulators to be the same as the returns from the singles.

if I take a snapshot of the system at different periods your comment could be perfectly correct also. I think it all depends, and I could be totally wrong saying this ..... if you join a system at anytime after the start the results could turn out to be totally different. With my own system here for the singles the ROI for the two years is 10.94% since I started the thread here a year ago the ROI is 10.71%. SR for both is quiet similar.

For the trebles ROI for the two years is 43.52% while since I started the thread it is 5.58% SR for both is 7.5% and 6.63%.

Don't know if this answers your question ?

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Ok, fell asleep last night thinking about this, so indulge me! I think we should stop thinking about these bets as trebles in the literal sense of the word. We should view these bets as singles with variable stakes based on a progressive staking plan. I'm not sure we've been looking at the most relevant metrics so far. If I'm not mistaken, this is what the stake and returns would be for a series of 3 winning bets at the target odds.

LEG Single Treble Total Odds Ret (S) Ret (Tr) Ret (Tot)
1 1 1 2 4 4 4 8
2 1 4 5 3 3 12 15
3 1 12 13 2 2 24 26
Total 3 17 20   9 40 49

So the singles showed a 6 point profit with an ROI of 200%, the treble a 23 point profit with an ROI of 135% and the total was a 29 point profit with an ROI of 145%. Singles outperformed the treble and the total return. If you had divided the 17 point or 20 point total stakes equally across all 3 selections you would have got a better return.

I think that's the rationale you should employ when reviewing these bets, forget about the theoretical notion of only risking 1 point on a treble, each bet is a single with varying levels of stake applying. I don't think we've properly accounted for the actual stakes applied to leg 2 and leg 3 bets so far.

How much have you actually staked in total and what's the return and ROI? How does that compare to simply dividing that total by the number of selections and placing level stakes singles? I suspect that level stakes may have the edge or there won't be very much in it.

Edited by harry_rag
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1st @ 15\8 yesterday ....... Double up pays 9.34

Dragon Bones 15.50 Southwell @ 8\11 (bog)

Bumper winner in October 2019 who sprung a 40/1 surprise when winning 3m Doncaster listed event on her hurdling debut 25 days ago. Back down in trip here, but open to improvement nonetheless. 

Treble - 3rd Leg - 9.34  Pts Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1  Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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On 3/29/2021 at 8:29 PM, MCLARKE said:

I've had a think about it and it's given me a headache ! Is it better than level stakes?

I think it depends on how you calculate the stake. If you have 3 winners in a row at 2/1 you win 26 points. Is your stake 1 point or 13 points, i.e. you are betting 1 point on horse A, 3 points on horse B and 9 points on horse C.

I suppose it's really a staking plan where you increase the stakes after a winner.

@MCLARKE just to give you a quick rundown on how it works for me. 

I do a treble over three days, one selection a day. The odds are usually 3\1, 2\1 & Evens or as close as I can get to those odds.

Once I have a loser I start a new treble. So if all selections win for a 1 Pt stake I get 24 Pts back.

If the 1st selection wins the winnings go on day 2 selection and so on.

If the first selection is a loser I start a new treble the next day (so once I hit a loser a new treble is started the next day). This allows me to get BOG on all selections and you could also get offers like  "get your money back if your selection is 2nd to the Fav".

I hope this clears things up. If you have anymore questions post on harry_rags new thread. 

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Unseated rider yesterday

Landofsmiles 15.00 Ffos Las @ 5\2 (bog)

Fair hurdler who has quickly translated that form to fences, finally putting it all together in rather devastating fashion at Chepstow 11 days ago. Leading claims carrying a 7 lb penalty. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1  Pt Win

Double - 1st Leg - 1  Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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