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BillyHills

Competition Going Forward

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Proposals 

As promised is the tables thread I am looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month.

I find that clear leaders sit on their profit and players attempting to qualify for the Cup are doing the same which leads to many players not picking selections in the last couple of days or more.

Just to be clear I have no feelings one way or another on how players go about approaching the competition, we all have our own way of betting, we just want everyone to feel they have something to play for.

I have noticed over the last few months some rumblings about the way players approach the Naps competition and there is no doubt we have had a shift in more players going for the speculative outsider than we have before.

I had a look at the figures and we are regularly hitting around the 19% S/R these days where as before we were often around the 25% mark. This is totally down to more players going for 25/1+ selections.

The players who genuinely sift through the cards to find their best bet of the day feel as though they have no chance in winning the monthly competition. I can see once a player has hit a 50/1 winner just playing for a Cup place is not the best of incentives.

I think we can reward performance and profit and have been looking at the last 12 months figures to see how we can do it.

At first I thought it would be best just to award the player with the highest strike rate a percentage of the winners prize but I also don't think encouraging people to select 1/4 shots everyday is helping anyone, so taking that a step further, what about if we had a profit figure that you needed to surpass as well?

If we say took the highest strike rate of those that made a profit in the month of at least £10 that would kill off any ideas of odds on shots every single day. Of course you would expect some short priced horses to be chosen and I have no problem with that, if its a Nap, its a Nap but by having the £10 figure it really rewards those that have performed well that month.

I have done a couple of tables to show how it would have panned out since January 2019 up until last month. Interestingly just 2 winners of the comp came out with the best S/R. 8 players were in the top 4 cash prizes but it would have given 7 players a prize that wouldn't have normally received anything. I would say overall that suits most type of punter. Of course people may bet differently knowing about the new prize.

In the second table i took away the upper profit limit and this highlighted the problem of players sitting on a small profit just to qualify for the Cup, I feel this would just get worse if there was a prize for the highest S/R only.

I propose a prize of £20 for player with the highest SR that has at least £10 profit on the month. This prize may well go to a player in the top 4 already but the winner of the whole competition will still quite rightly win the most cash whatever the result.

The second part of the new formula is to limit the amount of players qualifying for the Cup. At the minute anyone finishing in profit (or even, lol) gains automatic qualification into the following months KO Cup. This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. 

If we had a figure of 25 players only to qualify for the Cup then it would make it more exciting and something to aim for in the final few days of the month. I will also award a runners up prize for the KO Cup which has been asked for in the past.

I am not looking to change any of the main rules of the comp, i think we should keep the main core of what the comp is all about ie; picking one horse per day. So we wont be changing that or messing about with stakes etc.....

Let me know if you think this would be a way forward, please bare in mind we have a budget and we want to keep things simple.

 

Proposals as from April 1st

Winner : £60
Second : £30
Third £20
Fourth: £10
Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20
Cup Winner: £30
Cup Runners Up: £10

Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.

 

Table of those with the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit 

Screen Shot 2020-03-07 at 12.19.12.png

 

 

Table of those with the highest S/R, no upper limit on profit
Those in grey did not make the £10 profit mark.

Screen Shot 2020-03-07 at 12.19.17.png

 

:ok

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In my opinion I think that the above is a very good idea but from my reading we will still have a problem with

8 hours ago, BillyHills said:

This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. 

If I have posted an 80\1 winner on day 2 I can still carry on for 15 days and not post again afterwards and still win the prize. Maybe to stop this, similar to the new proposed SR winner with a min profit,  the overall winner must have a minimum strike rate of 20% or so. This years winners have won with less than 20% strike rate.  If not there is a stewards enquiry and positions reversed or winner alright.

I can say for February I did not post on the last day to insure I qualified for the KO Cup :$

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I'm not involved in this competition - know nothing about horses - but I do play the football tipster competition. It's sad that players of any of these free games that are kindly put up by @Punters lounge and run by the likes of @BillyHills go against the spirit in which they were clearly intended - which is to play every week for example in the case of the football tipster competition and then let the chips fall where they may in terms of winning or not. If players did that then there would be no need for extra rules like strike rate etc. I can honestly say I play the football tipster competition every week unless I forget for some reason and I've never sought to protect any winning position I might have been in previously by not playing. It's human nature I suppose to try to take advantage but it's a shame that we can't all as players of these games self-regulate.

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I understand its not perfect but I also think we have to be careful not to punish the players who like going for the big winner totally.

I would like to think the comp is big enough for all types of punter.

I dont think we can extend the amount of bets required beyond 15 and sometimes you just have to tip you hat to those who manage to pick a 50/1 winner.

We will never please everyone , I know that.

 

**Just one question I just thought about, does it matter to anyone if its done on S/R or should it be the amount of winners?? It can make a difference.

 

 

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It might be an idea to have an annual prize like the Racing Post naps table. I think this would be the true test. It is relatively easy to win the monthly competition by picking high odds selections but I suspect this method would not work over a full year.

I don't expect to make a profit every month but if I didn't make a profit over a year then I would be disappointed.

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9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It might be an idea to have an annual prize like the Racing Post naps table. I think this would be the true test. It is relatively easy to win the monthly competition by picking high odds selections but I suspect this method would not work over a full year.

I don't expect to make a profit every month but if I didn't make a profit over a year then I would be disappointed.

I've got that prize  at home with me, we used to do that along with the "punters" where we voted for our favourites.

I think it's great to make new additions  to comps  to make it fresh.,look the ko cup was struggling to get the top 8 to post in weeks 1 and 2 and I got a bye to the semi one month.

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The competiton, as is, is excellent.  I would continue to play if the rules did not change.  I am thinking "what is there not to like?"; Forum, I can choose my horses with any objective, I bump into others who want to have fun, and this fella @BillyHills does all the hard work in administering, monitoring, reporting.  And no subscription and for the skillful few prizes!   😃

 

Proposed changes:  All good. 

looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month...

Proposals as from April 1st

............
Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20
............
Cup Runners Up: £10

    These are all welcome.  I particularly like the transferrence of league money to the 2 extra prizes.

Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.

    Is this top 25 even if not in profit?

 

Other:

I am more than impressed by the stalwarts of the forum.  The dozen or so punters who posted over 340 predictions over 2019, a lot of whom stayed in profit for the year.  Now that is consistent in every which way.

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5 hours ago, Kingdom for said:

Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.

    Is this top 25 even if not in profit?

Yes , that way people still have something to play for even if they are having a poor month (in a loss)

On the last day or two it may not be as important to go for a 100/1 shot.

 

I does make me sad when i see decent punters picking absolute rags for a few quid, I suppose its the winning of the prize not how much it is.

 

Thanks for the positive comments:ok

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On 3/7/2020 at 10:58 PM, BillyHills said:

**Just one question I just thought about, does it matter to anyone if its done on S/R or should it be the amount of winners?? It can make a difference.

First of all I have no issues with the competition as it is, and I think @BillyHills does a fantastic job keeping track of everything every day.  So no complaints here, just thanks.  Having said that, I welcome the suggested changes because I think, for all the reasons stated by others here, the new regime will give those of us who don't get 50/1 winners something to aim at.

As for S/R or number of winners - I've just spent 20 minutes arguing with myself (!!), and my other half (who walked out half way through), over which I prefer.  I shan't bore you all with that sad debate, but the outcome is I think maybe number of winners with S/R as a tie-break.

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@Valiant Thor

Your a maths genius, whats your take on which is the better method of judging a punters skill?

Strike Rate over 31 days

or

Amount of Winners over 31 days

 

The problem I have is that for competition purposes I always count a break even bet or any profit a winner for S/R purposes

That includes something a 6/1 place, 1/5 odds, it only wins pennies but it is a winner. I guess if someone tried to this all of the time he/she would have to hit winners, not just placed horses to reach the profit limit of £10 to count for prizes.

I looked at previous tables and although you might not think the difference between S/R and Winners is much it would have made a difference on a couple of occasions

If we cant decide I quite like the amount of winners and then if its level we go to S/R.

:ok

 

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6 hours ago, BillyHills said:

@Valiant Thor

Your a maths genius, whats your take on which is the better method of judging a punters skill?

Strike Rate over 31 days

or

Amount of Winners over 31 days

:ok

 

 I wouldnt go as far as that ( :$ )

SR is the inverse of amount of winners and vica versa

31 is a prime number so you wouldnt get an integer so lets go for 30

As for strike rate of 20% over 30 days gives you 6 winners & 6 winners over 30 days gives you 20%

the easiest way to see who is the best  (or better) tipster would be to take the actual v expected sr

If you sum the actual winning bets and divide by the total sum of the inverse of odds  then this will give you a comparison figure you could use

IE

If 2 players played the same bets and Player A hits above the expected winners he gets a rating of 62% above standard ( obviously the standard would be 1 act winners = expected winners)

Where as the player B who only hits the hail mary gets a rating of -68% showing its more luck than good judgement as hes not hitting the expected amount of winners for the odds played.

Player A Profit = 4.98pts   Player A
w/l w l l l l w w w w l   actual winners 5
odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.08
inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E 62%
                             
Player B Profit = 57pts   Player B
w/l l l l l w l l l l l   actual winners 1
odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.08
inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E -68%

That is just an extreme example

but if you use the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit as the qualifier you would then be able to use the above method to decide on the better tipster from those qualifiers.

:ok

Better example (if two players draw both with 50% sr & 10.88 profit but different odds) Player A is the better player

   
Player A Profit = 10.88pts   Player A
w/l w w l l l w w w w l   actual winners 6
odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 5.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.15
inverse 40% 17% 67% 20% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E 90%
                             
Player B Profit = 10.88pts   Player B
w/l l w l w w w l l w w   actual winners 6
odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 4.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 2.00   expected winners 3.61
inverse 40% 17% 67% 25% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 50%   A/E 66%
   
                           
                           
                           
                             
     
                           
                           
                           
                         
                           
                           
                             
     
                           
                           
                           
Edited by Valiant Thor
new example

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8 hours ago, BillyHills said:

 

If we cant decide I quite like the amount of winners and then if its level we go to S/R.

:ok

 

Actually thought this way would be good for a while, would save me looking for a long shot all the time lol

people pick the long shots because they are trying to win the competition, it's the only prize on offer so you want to try and win it. If your £30 behind it's no good picking a 7/4 shot is it :p

Personally I would try and get the most winners, you can't beat the feeling of picking winners :ok

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@BillyHills

The same principles apply whether you trying to win the comp or get the highest S/R prize .(though much harder for the S/R prize)

Using table 1 as an example (SR + 10 profit)

Ave winning SR 50% ish

Ave winning Profit 25 ish

Say you played  30 days in a month you'd need 15 winners (30*50% = 15)...SR sorted

So with 15 winners you would need to make a 55pt return (30 staked + 25 profit)...profit sorted

Therefore similar to the player who sits there playing 66/1 shots every day until the law of probability steps in and he is then reasonable sure to win the prize

the other players option would be to play the 55/15 (3.66 or 11/4 nearest highest odds ) daily until the law of probability steps in and they win the S/R comp ( using Cumulative Binomdist in excel gives approx 1% probability of getting 15 correct with odds of 11/4 or greater,so much harder to win :ok )

Or if player 1 hits his 80/1 shot early he could even revert to 11/4 shots for the rest of the comp with the possibility of winning both :eek (greed is good as Mr Gekko says)

 

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I think the new proposals should keep all types of player happy enough

  • The punter who goes for the long shot will still scoop the top prize (if successful)
  • The punter who likes to pick shorter priced winners can aim for Cup qualification and the amount of winners prize
  • Those who just miss out still have 2nd, 3rd and 4th money to play for.
  • Those having a weak month will still have the top 25 to aim for, for a place in the Cup.
  • Those on the borderline of Cup qualification will need to play until later in the month which stops the negativity that sometimes creeps in.
  • Those that just miss out on the Cup will get a prize for finishing runners up.

This thread has been viewed over 300 times and I guess those who wanted to say something has said something.

 

Thanks for your feedback.

I propose to introduce the new format at the beginning of April, which means the qualification for the Cup will be as normal in March.

From April 1st

Winner : £60
Second : £30
Third £20
Fourth: £10
Highest Amount of Winners with min £10 Profit : £20
(if level, most profit will win, then S/R)
Cup Winner: £30
Cup Runners Up: £10

Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.

 

:ok

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Difficult to think of anything to add to what's already been proposed.

Only other one i had was to cap the price of the winner , anyone's guess what that would be but say for example 12/1 may be the ballpark.

That way it would cut out the flukier wins , force leaders to play more frequent and not sit on lead as much , force chasers to catch the leader or top 4 earlier rather than sit until very late , so instead of a 50/1 final day selection they'd need a 12/1 winner on each of the final 4 days and let's face it if that was achieved they'd deserve it anyway and their strike rate would be far more meritorious.

Great site whatever the rules anyway and sure we're all eternally grateful for the variety of competitions and also the tireless work from Graham.       :cheers

 

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16 hours ago, bymatrix said:

Difficult to think of anything to add to what's already been proposed.

Only other one i had was to cap the price of the winner , anyone's guess what that would be but say for example 12/1 may be the ballpark.

That way it would cut out the flukier wins , force leaders to play more frequent and not sit on lead as much , force chasers to catch the leader or top 4 earlier rather than sit until very late , so instead of a 50/1 final day selection they'd need a 12/1 winner on each of the final 4 days and let's face it if that was achieved they'd deserve it anyway and their strike rate would be far more meritorious.

Great site whatever the rules anyway and sure we're all eternally grateful for the variety of competitions and also the tireless work from Graham.       :cheers

 

If this was to happen then surely you wouldn't get people picking the outsiders? if I new a 20/1 shot would be capped at 12/1 I wouldn't pick it.

 

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Maybe so Jol but you back it with real money i'd imagine and let's face it the competition is a different animal , there's probably no exact science answer that Graham would be totally happy with but it's a case of finding the lesser of two evils.

Players would still pick double digit horses only more frequently with the cap as the needs would have to be more consistent & active than just throwing the odd dart.

 

Anyway i think Graham has posted the best solution anyway so it's onwards & upwards from April.            :cheers

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