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Racing Chat - Cheltenham Festival Day 4


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We will have a separate thread for each day of the Cheltenham Festival

If you have a fancy for any of the races for this day then this is the place to post them

Don't forget we have Ante Post Previews for each race plus daily detailed racecards 

The PL Rating Tips will be published 48hrs prior to race-day

 

 

Day 4 action

 

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Going to look at the trends for 2 handicaps each day

2.10: 2m0f179y Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners

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Ratings Record

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Trends

10/10 Aged 8yo or less
9/10 started double figure price
9/10 carried 11st 5 or less
8/10 rated 134-139
8/10 had not ran for at least 7 weeks (last four winners had at least 80 days off)
6/10 Irish trained
16/22 first 4 last time (1st or 2nd)
16/22 ran at least 4 times this season
21/22 Had won over 2m or further previously


 

 

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4.50 2m0f62y Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners

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Ratings Record
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Trends
9/10 Aged 9 or lower
9/10 IRE or FR Bred
8/10 rated between
7/10 English trained
Last 6 winners had at least 54 days off
14/22 Placed first 4 last time
17/22 ran at least 3 times this season
21/22 Won over 2m or further
19/22 Had ran over 2m4f previously

 

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2.10: County Hurdle Trends

Trends

10/10 Aged 8yo or less
we lose 9, 23
9/10 carried 11st 5 or less
we lose 1,2,3,4
8/10 rated 134-139
we lose 26,27,28 plus 5-12
8/10 had not ran for at least 7 weeks (last four winners had at least 80 days off)
we lose 13, 14, 15, 16, 22
6/10 Irish trained
16/22 first 4 last time (1st or 2nd)
we lose 17, 21, 24
16/22 ran at least 4 times this season
we lose 18, 20, 
21/22 Had won over 2m or further previously

Selections

1pt EW Le Ligerien 33/1 bet365
1pt EW Sir Valentine 25/1 bet365

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450 Grand Annual Chase

9/10 Aged 9 or lower
we lose 6, 14, 15, 19

9/10 IRE or FR Bred
we lose 17

8/10 rated between 138/147
lose 1-9

7/10 English trained
lose 10, 17

Last 6 winners had at least 54 days off
lose 12,13, 16, 20, 21, 22

 

Selections (first 5)
1pt EW Ballywood 25/1 PP
1pt EW Adrrastos 25/1 Coral 

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Hi all

Here is my next selection.

330 Cheltenham Al boum photo 1 point at 3 bog

Expect a golden repeat

Current state W5L1 Bank 106.67

Super horse. Second and third probably future winners of the Gold Cup.

So W6L1 Bank now 109.97

These selections have a high strike rate and as you can see generate good profits. There are not many of them that meet my criteria. Around 4 or 5 a month.

Edited by Old codger
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Yesterday worked out well, albeit some horses I had reservations about won (Samcro & Min) and a couple I thought would be certainties (Frodon EW & Paisely Park) were well beaten. Either way, it was a good day and even if I dont win a penny today I will still be walking away with a few quid in my pocket!

Triumph Hurdle

Solo                         145

Aspire Tower             145

Allmankind                143

Goshen                     143

A Wave of The Sea     140

Sir Psycho                 140

There are two I am not keen on for this and they are Goshen and Aspire Tower, the former looking like a dodgy jumper and the other having fallen last time out. They are plenty short enough with those concerns. There is a lot of pace so this could set up for more of a closer like Solo or A Wave of The Sea. The Skelton horse has done nothing but impress me so far and so I will go with him as the pace horse and Solo as the off the pace horse. It's not a race to go big with though.

 

County Hurdle

Aramon (W) - Likely to run a big race. Has Cheltenham form, top trainer and jockey and his form makes this mark look workable. You dont see many Grade 1 winners in a race like this, especially when their latest run produced a Grade 1 winner and Grade 1 placed horse at this meeting.

Embittered (EW) - A horse who hasnt quite made it at the top level who ran with promise despite being slightly hampered in a good race last time out. Price looks a bit big to me.

Stolen Silver (EW) - I would be keener on this horse if his stable had done a bit better here this week but he placed behind Chantry House, beat the Supreme 6th and then probably got caught out a little for pace on good ground int he Betfair Hurdle where it can be difficult to make ground up from the rear. He has been dropped 2lb for that and he must go closer today.

Ciel De Neige (W) - I can't believe how much the price has collapsed on this one. Another Betfair Hurdle runner who probably got to the front a little too soon.Only up 4lb, placed in the Fred Winter last season and has the right connections.

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Albert Bartlett

Thyme Hill               152

Latest Exhibition      150

Monkfish                 150

Ramses De Teille    150

The Cashel Man      150

Janidil                     150

Cobbles Way           147

This is a tough and competitive race and again wouldn't be one that I would be completely confident about. Ramses De Teille has to be hugely respected. He stays, he has plenty of experience, he is tough but he is a Pipe horse and I would like to see more evidence that they are flying. He must be a very solid EW contender. The two I will chance for the win are two very similar horses in Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill looks the obvious horse. Champion Bumper placed, and this year he has beaten a range of impressive enough horses being strongest at the finish. My biggest concern with this horse is how badly the Hobbs stable is performing here. He has had winners outside of the festival but his biggest hopes here have flopped. I think the current price takes an element of that into account though. Latest Exhibition looks the strongest of the Irish. He ran 2nd to Abacadabras over 16f, which is some performance when considering the trip they are running over this week, he beat a Grade 2 winner, going away over a stiff 20f and he ran similarly over 22f in a race where the 5th was running a big race in the Supreme. The rest have lofty ratings but have either been beaten by one of these two or havent been tested in a tough enough environment for my liking.

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Gold Cup

Al Boum Photo            178

Clan Des Obeaux         178

Kemboy                      178

Lostintranslation          175

Delta Work                  173

Santini                         173

 

What a Gold Cup this is going to be. Al Boum Photo is bidding to repeat his win from last year and he would appear to have solid claims to do so. In the back of my mind he is still a horse that will make mistakes, as he showed at Punchestown, and whilst he did it well last season he was 12/1 then and now is a quarter of that price and I think I can let him run at that price. The next three on the list also have question marks over them, CDO needs to show he can be his best on an undulating track, Kemboy needs to jump better and prefers better ground and the Tizzard's aren't firing. That then leaves the 2nd and 3rd from last years RSA who are the up-and-comers in this contest. Santini has always screamed at me as a Gold Cup horse. He had a poor prep for the RSA last season and I think he will improve again for this race. Delta Work has done nothing wrong this season either, dining at every Irish top table and due to how he wins (which isnt by much), his ratings probably don't show his true level of ability. Having won the Pertemps as a 5yo I think he will relish this longer trip and I can see him and the Henderson horse fighting it out at the finish.

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The last two are the final get out of jail free cards.

Grand Annual

Capeland (EW) - I am a little concerned that he hasn't done anything around here but his run in the JLT wasnt a terrible run and in fact, bar one quite bad error it would have be much better and that would have a been a bigger test than today. He has run two mighty handicap races this season at Ascot going up 10lb but his performances deserved it. He has then gone into graded races and whilst he was a bit poor on heavy at Ascot, he was impressive at Kempton in a messy race. Back in handicap company I can see this race being run to suit and then it will be a question as to whether the weight becomes too much for him up the hill.

Ecclair De Beafeau (W) - This looks an obvious profile from this stable. Not quite good enough in graded races and then goes into a handicap and wins fairly handily. This was apparently the plan before that Leopardstown win, no doubt partly due to his huge run in the County Hurdle last season where he probably hit the front a bit too early and was starting to tire when unseating at the last.

Croco Bay (Place) - Last years winner has great form in this race with his 4 attempts as follows: W,5,F,3. He is 13 now but his last run at Doncaster was as good his win in this last year and so he must have another great chance of going close. My main bet on him would be for a place only as surely he will find something too good at his age but there are some fancy prices on Betfair for him and I wouldnt put anyone off.

Martin Pipe

The final race of the day and I have quite a strong fancy in the form of Column of Fire (W). He stepped up from maiden company to run a big race at Leopardstown, the 2nd running in the Stayers, the 3rd placing yesterday behind Sire Du Berlais and the 5th looking set to go close before falling. That race was over further but a quickly run race over this trip will surely suit and I can see him powering up the hill.

I do have two others for smaller stakes. The first is Espoir De Romay (EW) and Umbrigado (EW). The former is a horse firmly on the upgrade and the horse he beat has gone on to win a competitive enough handicap readily in the last couple of weeks. The stable have had a win and a place this week from limited runners. The latter is a Pipe horse that has been going up and down in trip and this finally looks right for him. He was impressive at Haydock when looking to run out of steam and then getting caught out for pace when not running that badly behind Not So Sleepy on heavy at Ascot. The last time he ran at this trip he ran less than 10l behind Reserve Tank in a Grade 1. There is a question over what he will find and aids have been applied but he is worth a tickle at current odds.

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