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Racing Chat - Cheltenham Festival Day 3


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We will have a separate thread for each day of the Cheltenham Festival

If you have a fancy for any of the races for this day then this is the place to post them

Don't forget we have Ante Post Previews for each race plus daily detailed racecards 

The PL Rating Tips will be published 48hrs prior to race-day

 

 

Day 3 action

 

Screen Shot 2020-03-06 at 09.56.03.png

 

 

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Going to look at the trends of 2 handicaps each day

 

2.10 2m7f213y Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2020-03-06 at 11.07.08.png

 

Ratings Record

Screen Shot 2020-03-06 at 11.07.25.png

Trends

9/10 Ran within 2 months
9/10 FR or IRE Bred
8/10 Aged 8 or lower
15/22 First 4 last time (10 won)
16/22 Started at 8/1 or bigger
14/22 carried 10st 10lbs or more
15/22 rated 136 or higher
17/22 ran at least 3 times this season
21/22 ran at this trip previously (14 won)

 

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4.10 2m4f127y Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2020-03-06 at 11.08.08.png

 

Ratings Record
Screen Shot 2020-03-06 at 11.08.14.png

 

Trends

9/10 Aged 9 or less
8/10 not ran for 38 days prior to this race
8/10 IRE of FR bred
14/22 First 4 last time (7 won)
19/22 Carried 11st or less
16/22 rated 136 or more
17/22 Ran at least 3 times this season
17/22 started at 8/1 or higher
20/22 Won at 2m3f or further

 

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210 Pertemps Final

9/10 Ran within 2 months
We lose 3,4,8,11,14,18,24

9/10 FR or IRE Bred
we lose 2,10,26

8/10 Aged 8 or lower
we lose 6,9,21,23

15/22 First 4 last time (10 won)
we lose 5,7, 17, 20, 

16/22 Started at 8/1 or bigger
14/22 carried 10st 10lbs or more
we lose 25,22

17/22 ran at least 3 times this season
we lose 14, 16

21/22 ran at this trip previously (14 won)
All qualify

Top 5:  1, 12, 13 (won last time), 15, 19

Selection
1pt EW Welsh Saint 10/1 bet365

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410 Brown Advisory Plate

9/10 Aged 9 or less
we lose 1,5,18, 26

8/10 not ran for 38 days prior to this race
we lose 3, 11, 17, 20, 22, 25

8/10 IRE of FR bred
we lose 14, 24

14/22 First 4 last time (7 won)
we lose 2, 4, 9, 12, 13, 15, 20, 

19/22 Carried 11st or less
we lose Top 14

16/22 rated 136 or more
All qualify

20/22 Won at 2m3f or further
we lose 21

cant split 3
1pt EW Deyrann De Carjac 16/1 bet365
1pt EW Charmant 33/1 bet365
1pt EW Royal Village 28/1 Hills

first 5

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e/w lucky 15

  • 12th Mar CHELTENHAM 17:30 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 0y - Each Way
    13. Militarian40/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
  •  
    12th Mar CHELTENHAM 14:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 7f 213y - Each Way
    10. Dingo Dollar66/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 6 Places
  •  
    12th Mar CHELTENHAM 16:10 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 127y - Each Way
    21. Blazer14/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
  •  
    12th Mar CHELTENHAM 16:50 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 179y - Each Way
    18. Whitehotchillifili33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
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Another good day yesterday topping up the coffers again but generally speaking today is always the make or break day for me. Its the most competitive day and filled with races that I like the most and get this right and it should allow me enough money to smuggle in 100 rolls of triple quilted toilet paper just in time for the apocalypse.

Marsh Novice

Faugheen           166

Samcro              161

Itchy Feet           160

Mister Fisher       157

 

This posed me a real problem. I ruled out Samcro pretty quickly because I dont see him finishing his race off. Even when he was throwing down a challenge to Fakir Doudaries in my opinion he was just as likely to fall into a hole just as he did against Faugheen. They have done his wind again but he is way too short and would be one of my lays of the day in all honesty. Faugheen and Itchy Feet are my next two bets. I didnt like the way they were talking about Faugheen after his win at the DRF. It was almost as if that was the day and anything after is a bonus. He didn't jump that well and Easy Game hasn't franked the form and nor has the 4th. Can a horse at his age also come and put in a career best here? I wouldn't want to lay him, but I'm happy to watch him win unbacked. Speaking of iffy jumpers, Itchy Feet must also fall into this category. He was impressive at the business end in that Sandown race and Midnight Shadow is a solid 150 horse and he breezed past him. He ran well here and at Aintree over hurdles last spring and he will cope well with this ground. The problem with him is that he will make mistakes and I am not sure I can see a horse doing a Champ two days in a row. If he minimises the errors then he would have a huge chance. Mister Fisher would also have a chance having beaten another solid enough 150 horse over a shorter than ideal trip but he would be best on better ground. My tentative nod would therefore go to Itchy Feet.

 

Pertemps Handicap

My first bet will be Sire Du Berlais (EW). He won the race last year after a troubled passage from 7lb lower and whilst I dont expect him to be able to win this race with a similar passage this year, he must surely go close to winning if it goes well. He loves it here, his runs have been the typical style run for a race like this, getting into a place without showing your full hand and with Gerraghty riding out of his skin so far this week he should be bang there.

I have backed The Storyteller (W). I'm not proud of it but sometimes you just have to look at the obvious signs in front of your eyes. As I mentioned above he is a clear plot job and whilst he is well found in the market, he has the form over hurdles, the form at the track and one of the best trainers and jockeys for this type of challenge.

Skandiburg (EW) is another I will have a bet on. This horse has abundant stamina and a real test on soft ground looks to be right up his street. I thought he had no chance in the Cheltenham race he won last time out but he found loads under pressure to power away. Why wouldnt you want a horse like that on your side in this race?

I am also tossing up a 4th bet which is currently between Stoney Mountain and Third Wind. Most of Third Wind's best form has come over shorter and on right handed tracks which raises an alarm bell to me and I think he is short enough given that this will be a big test. His wins at Sandown and Wincanton show that this is a horse to keep on the right side of but I am not sure this is the day. Stoney Mountain won the same race at Haydock Paisely Park did last season and he won it in a similar fashion by powering clear after the final flight when looking well beaten. Despite that connections then sent him chasing where he UR before sending him to the same race SDB placed in to qualify for this race and he received a somewhat similar ride, essentially never threatening the leaders as they were a bit too pacey for him. Like Skandiburg this looks like the right test.

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Ryanair Chase

Frodon                   173

Aso                        171

Min                         171

A Plus Tard             170

Ridersonthestorm     167

 

Frodon is massively overlooked in this race in my opinion. A Plus Tard is a worthy favourite, is improving and could well be one of the NAPs of the day but Frodon must be the EW play of the day, if not week. People keep saying how poorly Frodon has ran this season but its bollocks. His Aintree run was rated 1lb better than the previous seasons, he ran really well for a long way in the Betfair Chase against a horse that would be the best horse in training if all races were run over that course and distance and one of the solidest novices from last season and then despite not being the ideal track, he ran and won at Kempton, only 3lb below the form he showed in his prep run in the Cotswold Chase the year before. This horse is at his best around Cheltenham and you can add at least 5lb to what he did last time out, maybe even closer to 10lb. Its not entirely implausible that the horse has actually improved again slightly this season so he really shouldn't be dismissed for all that he is up against a potential star.

As for the others, Aso would also rate a solid EW bet but I cant see Min staying on up the hill as he has faded each time before and that was over shorter and Ridersonthestorm is surely backing up a bit soon after a grueling race last time out.

Edited by Blazing Bailey
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Stayers Hurdle

Paisely Park wins and then its case of whether or not to have an EW play.

You could pick from a handful and make a case but I will rule out of a couple of the main ones. Bacardys is best at a shorter trip, Emitom isnt the greatest of jumper, Apples Jade is a bit of an unknown at the moment and connections dont appear confident and I am not convinced that Summerville Boy is true stayer at this trip in a properly run race (although there is a doubt as to whether this will be well run) and City Island will surely need a hurdle prep after returning from chasing. As a result my pin landed on Ronald Pump. He is a quite progressive hurdler and his last run (handicap) was as good as many others have shown this season and only 5lb behind the level Paisely Park has shown this season. It look like others are starting to find him in the market but if he improves again, which is a definite possibility, then he could cause more trouble to the favourite than people may think.

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Brown Advisory

Whilst the price is crazily short, it is the only fault I can find with Simply the Betts. The second behind him in his last run bolted up earlier in the week, he has form here, he runs prominently, he jumps well enough and I cant see a way he doesn't go close.

I have added another in the form of Ben Dundee (EW) who whilst I wouldnt back him to beat STB, if anything does go wrong with the favourite then I can see him picking up the pieces. I also don't see him finishing out of the from so he rates a very solid EW option. Placed in a competitive handicap behind A Plus Tard last season, and close again at Navan this season, he has Davy Russell on board today and just looks right for this race.

The best bit about today is that you get a little chance to have a lie down or hopefully count your money before the finale.

Kim Muir

Everyone knows by now that it is so important to get the best jockeys in these amateur races. Fresh from his win earlier in the week, I will back Jamie Codd to go close again today with Le Brueil. His stable have been out of form most of the season and as a result he hasn't really had the opportunity to build upon his win under the same pilot in the 4 miler last season and whilst his form hasn't actually been as bad as it has looked (clear excuses LTO), the stable are now starting to fire (Kildisart 2nd earlier in the week).

Sticking with the best jockeys, whilst I don't think he is on the board yet Patrick Mullins rides Fitzhenry (EW) and he too must have a serious chance. I wonder whether he is a horse that is too often the bridesmaid in these type of races and if I am right with my other selection then it may well be the same story again but he runs really well in these big handicaps and where a top jockey can count for that little bit extra, he could go one better today.

Finally I will also give a small shout to Kilfilum Cross. 2nd in this last year he has had a curious season. He ran at Ayr after that race but that wouldn't be a track he would like, he has then run twice over 19f, doing OK over a trip too short (either side of a PU on heavy ground) before finishing 2nd at Kempton, another less than ideal track, behind a rapid improver who will probably have a big chance on Saturday. That run was 1lb better than his second last season and yet he is 1lb lower. He might have improved this year but we haven't really had the chance to fully see it yet and whilst he looks to be another that is shortening in the market, he too must rate an EW play, with the same jockey as last year.

 

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