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How's best to rate handicap races?


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How do you tackle the handicap races?.

Have you any tips, best information sites to look at for stats.

I hear people say avoid handicaps, but i then hear people say they love the handicaps. 

When do we know a horse is well in? Ahead of the handicapper?  I hear these sad to but what do they really mean. 

Id like to have a little bit more knowledge going into the Cheltenham handicaps a bit more with it. 

Thank you 

Darren 

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1 hour ago, Daznvern said:

How do you tackle the handicap races?.

Have you any tips, best information sites to look at for stats.

I hear people say avoid handicaps, but i then hear people say they love the handicaps. 

When do we know a horse is well in? Ahead of the handicapper?  I hear these sad to but what do they really mean. 

Id like to have a little bit more knowledge going into the Cheltenham handicaps a bit more with it. 

Thank you 

Darren 

I’m not best qualified to give an answer, but i’ll put in my two pence worth.  There are two ways I go at it. 

1. Look at their current official rating then look at their last RPR from their last race. If the RPR is 5 or above more than their current official rating then they could be well handicapped.  

2. Look at their current rating then look to see if they have won off an higher rating or the same rating in the past. 

 

I’m a big fan of handicap races . Also the points I have made are not straight forward as the horse could be racing over a further/shorter trip than it’s race before so I’d account for that. Also what going has the horse ran well on before etc etc . For Cheltenham I’d follow trends for the handicap races.  As I said there are far better qualified people on here than me, so maybe you’ll get more from them. 

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@Daznvern

Try searching for the word 'handicap' at the top of the page we have had plenty of discussions about handicaps, like this one for starters.

Its very difficult to sum up handicaps in a quick reply and it depends on your current understanding of the subject.

Give us a clue on what you want to know.

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi all

Serial lurker who has finally decided to put his head above the parapet.😀

I now only bet in hcps and by that I mean hcps whereby all the runners have won off a hcp mark. There's plenty of races where this happens so rather than explain the theory I thought I'd run through a live race to explain what I mean.

Racing tomorrow is not too exciting, small fields, non too sexy courses either but one race has caught my eye. the 2.30 Southwell. 5 Runner chase handicap.

4 runners are attempting to win from a hcp mark higher than what they've won off before.

Twotwothree OR 119 last win 110 - won cl4 hcps (both over 2m and then well btn in subsequent cl4 off 122. Raced in a cl2 lto, well btn but as a consequence OR dropped 3lbs (this I feel is a common ploy to get an OR lowered, run in higher class if connections think the horse is no longer handicapped to win)

Little Light OR117 last win 112 - won cl4 hcp (just) off 112, btn off 118 last wice and only dropped 1lb

Railroad Junkie OR 111 last win 109 - last won 2018 cl4 hcp. Taken a while for hcp mark to drop but capable if fit enough off a 95 day break, That break however does put me off.Trainers record after such a layoff doesn't inspire confidence.

Chozen OR117 last 116 - only 1lb over it's last winning mark and coming back from a 79 day layoff. That's not a concern when you consider it's won before off 142 & 278 days off

1 runner is trying to win off a hcp mark 2lbs lower than it's won off before.

Truckers Highway OR114 last win 116 - last won a cl4 hcp over 2m off 116, 4 subsequent runs, one in a cl3 off 121 and then 3 more over 20f. Rating now dropped to beneath last winning mark and back to 2m.

After going through all the runners I think Truckers Highway and Chozen are the ones I'd lean towards.

Truckers Highway is rank outsider of 5 available at 10/1 and Chozen second outsider at 6/1 maybe 11/2.

Small field stabs at those prices for these two.😊

 

** Truckers Highway N/R

Chozen came to challenge 2nd last flight and plowed through it. 

We live to fight another day. 

Edited by AndyG
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2 hours ago, Snoopdog said:

While we're on this subject, here's a related question for you experts.

The RPR ratings on the day of a race are clearly adjusted for jockey weight, etc.

Do any of you know the formulae used to arrive at an RPR for raceday?

Hi Snoopdog

Are you talking about the RPR figure against every runner on the racecard?.

E.G. Shesoon Sonny,3.30 Southwell RPR 132

The figure is formed from its best RPR figure from its last six runs, in this case 119 from its run 13.12.2019 at Chelt.

Today it carries 11.1

Each NH runner is made up to 12 stone.

13lbs added to 11.1 = 12 stone

13 points added to 119 =132

For the flat each runner is added to 10 stone.

You may see its best rating is 119 but that was achieved on g/s whereas its best on soft is 115. Would the 13 added to 115 be more realistic b/cos of the going?.

Its for you to ponder & decide.

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As 'The Handicap' is a moveable feast with horses going up and down all the time I have a little trick to put today's race into some context as regards The Handicap

For each horse I make a note of it's position in the handicap since it's last win and since it's last run

so it might look like this .........

-3, S Old Timer

? +2 Young 'Un

+4, -1 Steady Eddie

+6, +6 Potential Improver

S means 'Same as last run'

? means no handicap win

?? would be 'First Run In a Handicap'

I find this helps in visualising how the horses are going up and down the ladder which is the Official Ratings Handicap

From the above you can see straightaway see that Old Timer has fallen below his last winning mark but is running off the same mark as last time when he didn't win. Horses like this can be in long term decline but they just could be working their way down back to mark they can win off. I like to see these horses gradually coming down the weights but getting closer with 2 or 3 successive runs

Young 'Un has never won a handicap but the assessor is creeping him up .... he has to be showing signs of improving to get ahead of his increasing mark

Steady Eddie has  a recent win but hasn't won off his new mark and is now going back down again. He'll probably be handicapped to win again soon.... particularly if he's lightly raced and could just be naturally inproving through racing and getting older

Potential Improver won last time out and this is his first run either with a penalty or new mark, You have to assess the last win .... was it a much easier race than today ? or could he just take the increase in weights in his stride.

So that's what I do for every horse in the race to get an idea of the handicap into my mind  ........... from then on you start looking at suitability of trip, going, track, trainerform, jockey, recent runs, ....... all the usual stuff

And of course the odds !

Ideally you're looking for a horse that appears to be on a winning mark, with  trip, going and track to suit, yard in form, decent jockey, getting closer in it's last 3 runs and is a decent price

And of course it helps if you can put a line through most of the others, particularly the short priced ones

 

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