Hunter Chase - 4.50 Catterick

[Darran]

This Catterick race was always one of the weakest hunter chases of the season, but the quality has picked up in recent years and this year it has attracted a horse who some thought could have won this year's Foxhunter. I put on Twitter when the entries came out that it was top trolling from Phil Rowley to put Wishing And Hoping in this and not the Foxhunter to those who had backed him for that. It is worth remembering that Hazel Hill ran in a hunter chase at Towcester the day before the Foxhunter in 2018 so he has previous in aiming for a lesser target with a horse who could be capable of running a big race at Cheltenham. This looks a very shrewd bit of placing and connections of the others must be very frustrated that such a good horse has ended up in this. Some people have been saying the yard's form is a worry, but given he has had 5 winners from his last 14 runners that quite frankly is garbage. He will go from the front so he will be keeping things simple and if he gets round safely I don't really see how he gets beat.

Geordie and Craggaknock look unlikely to trouble for 2nd place. Light Flicker is half interesting as he was still going quite well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when coming down at 4 out. Ironically he forced the unseat of a Rowley runner that night. He was a big price, but he was certainly out running his odds. He moved yards after that and the next season he won his maiden by 20L. There were only 3 runners and on the Cheltenham form he was always going to win that. That run was in November 2018 and he hasn't been seen since which has to be the concern. Also he tends to be up there and I can't see him being able to keep tabs on the favourite.

Absainte looked progressive last season until getting beaten at 4/7 on quick ground. She then ran in the mares race at Cheltenham's hunter chase night and ran with credit to finish 3rd. She then went to Cartmel and finished 3rd again, but she never really got involved that day. Maybe it came soon enough after a tough race at Cheltenham or it was a sharp enough trip for her. she returned last month and was impressive in victory although the race wasn't overly strong she couldn't have done it any easier and connections have been targeting this race.

Waterloo Warrior was certainly flattered by finishing so close to the winner at Leicester last month, but it did suggest that he need stepping up in trip as he was finishing strongly late on. He is clearly progressive as well and I would imagine connections had also ear marked this race as a likely target after that Leicester run.

This should be an easy victory for Wishing And Hoping as there are no negatives. He beat a horse at Taunton who is going to run at Cheltenham and was beaten by one of the leading fancies for the race at Haydock. There is nothing near those here. I think Waterloo Warrior or Absainte will finish 2nd and there should be profit to be made by splitting stakes on both either one of those things happening.

Wishing And Hoping to beat Waterloo Warrior 1pt f/c

Wishing And Hoping to beat Absainte 1pt f/c 

[yossa6133]

Interesting betting in this one, major drift on the fav for some reason out to 4/6.