StevieDay1983 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The eagle-eyed viewers amongst you will have noticed the League of Ireland is back. I will admit that due to its lack of fanfare we missed the first week of action but it's now included this week to the usual Northern Irish and Welsh odds. Check them out and let us know any bets you're placing! @Cheltenhamwhite, @Wiltshire Shot, @Bang on, and @Theodore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Aberystwyth vs Penybont OK, it's been a difficult start to the second phase of the Cymru Premier season with results going awry. This week, I'm going to look at the bottom end of the table as Aberystwyth look to boost their hopes of gate crashing the Europa League play-offs when they host relegation threatened Penybont in a 7:45pm GMT kick-off on Friday night at the Aberystwyth University Stadium. Aberystwyth come into this game in 9th place and 11 points clear of the relegation places. Manager Matthew Bishop will feel his team should be looking up at rivalling Cardiff Met Uni for the only play-off spot available to the teams competing in the bottom half of the table after the split. The Seasiders don't exactly have the best home record having lost 7 of their 12 home league games but they'll feel this is a game they should be looking to win. The first game of the second phase was a disappointing 3-1 loss away to Cardiff Met Uni but the club bounced back with an emphatic 5-3 home win over Airbus UK. It was only back on 18th January that Aberystwyth beat Penybont 1-0 in the league at home. Penybont are doing themselves proud by simply still being in the mix to stay up. Manager Rhys Griffiths has guided his team to 11th in the table and they're only in the drop zone due to an inferior goal difference compared to 10th placed Carmarthen. The Bont will need to improve their away form that has seen them only win 2 of their 11 league games on the road. The problem is that the club have entered a bit of a rut losing three games in a row. This is a game where we could see Aberystwyth push Penybont even closer to relegation right back to the Cymru Championship North/South level. The 2-1 loss at home to Carmarthen last week was a huge blow to their survival hopes and dropped the Bont back into the relegation spots. Aberystwyth have the carrot on the stick of a potential European challenge. Both teams will be fighting but I think the home side's quality will prevail and at the price available it needs to be snapped up. Aberystwyth to Win @ 2.20 with Unibet Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 1.70 with William Hill Wiltshire Shot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Friday in Wales (Saturday to follow): Bet365 have so far priced up one game in the south, which looks about right to me. I'm on Aberystwyth and I agree with @StevieDay1983's analysis which I can't add to, although Aber have come in a lot since I put my bet on yesterday. The big game is Connah's Quay v TNS. I went to Bala to see TNS last week, despite it being televised. TNS are clearly an excellent team for this level, but not unbeatable and a hard-fought draw was probably fair. Connah's Quay are top, and with home advantage I really struggle to see why the bookies have TNS as evens favourites; Andy Morrison is doing a good job and I have the sides much more closely matched. While I think the value is with the home side a draw is also highly plausible so I've taken Connah's Quay DNB at BetVic's 29/20. StevieDay1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, Wiltshire Shot said: Friday in Wales (Saturday to follow): Bet365 have so far priced up one game in the south, which looks about right to me. I'm on Aberystwyth and I agree with @StevieDay1983's analysis which I can't add to, although Aber have come in a lot since I put my bet on yesterday. The big game is Connah's Quay v TNS. I went to Bala to see TNS last week, despite it being televised. TNS are clearly an excellent team for this level, but not unbeatable and a hard-fought draw was probably fair. Connah's Quay are top, and with home advantage I really struggle to see why the bookies have TNS as evens favourites; Andy Morrison is doing a good job and I have the sides much more closely matched. While I think the value is with the home side a draw is also highly plausible so I've taken Connah's Quay DNB at BetVic's 29/20. I think they've come in because punters have caught wind that you and I have backed them. Clearly our reputations are now preceding us! Wiltshire Shot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) So Penybont beat Aberystwyth , and according to the stats not only won but dominated, which I doubt many people predicted. A couple of matches in the North and South have been priced, and I can't find value in them. Saturday's Premier games: Barry v Caernarfon: Two seemingly out of form sides meet. Caernarfon in particular, with only one point in seven games, at struggling Penybont. Barry have picked up ten points in that time, and the defeats against Connah's Quay (twice) and TNS are understandable, so maybe their form isn't as bad as I thought, although they have dropped off following an impressive start to the season. Caernarfon's away form hasn't really kicked off all season so with home advantage I've taken Barry at Unibet's 6/5. Cardiff Met v Airbus: Like Aberystwyth v Penybont this looks a home banker but at 1/2 I'm not taking it. Carmarthen v Cefn Druids: Carmarthen have picked up enough points to stay in touch with safety, but most of those points have come against Airbus and Penybont, the other two strugglers. The Druids have been inconsistent - beating Connah's Quay and losing to Penybont. The home side's recent form will give some hope, but their four undefeated in five have been against Airbus and Penybont, with a seven goal hammering by Barry being the odd one out. I'd expect the Druids, who are gunning for the final Europa League play-off spot, to be favourites for this and I got 17/10 which has now lengthened a bit. Newtown v Bala: Newtown have only two defeats in ten, and are second in the last eight form table although Bala are higher in the table and stronger on paper. I can't work this game out so I'll not bet, although given recent form and Newtown already having beaten Bala at home, I suspect value is with the home side at 3/1. Edited February 22, 2020 by Wiltshire Shot Typos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The League of Ireland I will leave alone for now. Northern Ireland.. I need to kick myself as I didn't look earlier and Linfield, who I keep saying are the best team in the league WON 4-0 at home last night.. at Odds against ! Welsh Premier - looking at a double on Cardiff MU and Bala(+ the draw) which pays around Evens. Bala are not a top team so adding the draw on our side. They are away at Newtown who have only scored 10 goals at home in 11 games so are far from prolific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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