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NIFL & Cymru Premier Predictions > Feb 7th & 8th

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Caernarfon vs Bala Town

Well, it's the first week of action in the second phase of the Cymru Premier where the league table splits in two. The top six have all at least qualified for the Europa League play-offs and the race is now on to see who can seal the title and who will qualify for Europe automatically. Caernarfon host Bala Town in an 8pm GMT kick-off on Friday night at the Oval with the action being screened live on S4C over here in Wales.

Caernarfon are always a solid bet at home for me with the club only losing 2 of their 11 league games on home turf so far this season. The Canaries are 5th in the table and 11 points behind the pace of the automatic Europa League qualification spot. So it's probably too tall an order for them to reach that but they can improve their ranking heading into the Europa League play-offs. Unfortunately, they come into this game without a win in their last 5 league games. Huw Griffiths' side also suffered a 3-0 loss away to Bala Town during that run.

Bala Town sit in 3rd place and just 5 points behind 2nd placed Connah's Quay. You might want to say it quietly but they're only 9 points off the title pace. However, they ended the first phase of games with back-to-back defeats against Cefn Druids and Cardiff Met Uni FC. Colin Caton's men have a solid away league record with only TNS and Barry Town earning more points away from home.

This is a game against their closest rivals for Caernarfon and we know how their fans love to turn the Oval into a bit of a bear pit at the best of times. I think the atmosphere they'll create means it'll be a hostile environment for Bala Town to perform in. I wasn't sure whether to back a home win or a draw. I think the draw offers more value and I do think Bala Town could do just enough to get something from this game.

Draw @ 2.20 with Unibet

BTTS @ 1.60 with William Hill

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As well as being the first round of matches following the split, there are also going to be some tweaked teamsheets due to January transfers and I'll be honest and admit I don't know much about most of the new players.  David Cotterill at Barry is probably the Welsh league's biggest coup of the window and a big signing not just for the club but for the league.

I've got an interest in three Welsh games.

Airbus v Cefn Druids:  A while ago, when Druids were in form, I'd have been all over them at just longer than evens, particularly as their last league game was an impressive win at Bala.  However, no win in the previous four, including a disappointing home defeat to Penybont (two defeats to TNS are forgivable) and Airbus' three draws out of five (again defeats to Connah's Quay can be ignored) give me enough doubt to leave it alone.

Penybont v Carmarthen:  Both have only one win in eight and a win for Penybont would put Carmarthen in real trouble of being cut adrift.  Both sides have conceded a lot this season, but the goals against figures have been skewed by heavy defeats against the bigger sides.  They are also among the league's lowest scorers; combined with a plausible scenario where both sides think it more important not to lose, and with a track record of both drawing six of their twenty-two games so far, I give a draw a more than a 3/1 chance of coming in so I've taken it.  Others seem to agree with me as the prices for a stalemate have come in.

TNS v Newtown:  Newtown sneaked into the top six on the last day, and although recent form has been good TNS should have too much for them, although at 1/7 I'm not taking it.

Caernarfon v Bala:  I can't make this one out; Caernarfon are on a poor run, largely due to injuries.  I can't find an injury update or match preview, but I'll assume the break since the last league game means some of the missing will return.  Like @StevieDay1983 I fancy the home side for value at just over 2/1, but I do think Bala are the better side.  That means the draw already tipped becomes plausible and probably value although I'm not investing.  I also agree with @StevieDay1983 that with both sides liking to go forward the game could see goals at both ends.

Barry v Connah's Quay: I was really impressed when I saw Barry at Bala a while ago, but they've fallen away since.  The Nomads on the other hand have gone the other way and I think are rightly favourites, although too short for me.

Cardiff Met v Aberystwyth:  Aber did their transfer business early in January, and it paid off when they impressed me by winning at Caernarfon last month.  The students have suffered from inconsistency but still sit eight points above their visitors.  However, I think the prices are based on league position rather than Aberystwyth's decent new signings and I've chanced them at 15/4 which seems to me a few percent too long.

There are some games in the north and south tonight; I'm planning on cheering on Bangor at Llandudno.  Further south, Ammanford go to Goytre, and I've taken them at 6/4, based on stats rather than knowing much about either side.  Goytre are mid-table, 8th out of 16.  Ammanford are fourth with a decent away record, and look a few percent too long to me.

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Missed Fridays games, and struggling to find a bet as the odds are very cramped. I am looking at Cliftonville (1-4) at home to Dungannon Swifts. Cliftonville home form reads 9-0-4 with a +12 GD. Dungannons away form reads 1-2-10 with a -31GD. I am a big fan of Connah's Quay and at C.Q + the draw (1-3), the double pays 4-6. Connah's Quay DNB pays 4-7. ...... So, I am having a bet on the Cliftonville(1-1 draw)/ Connah's Quay DNB(Won 1-0) which pays a fraction under Evens, in the hope that C.Q. win rather than draw and I am left with a 1-4 single.... or in this case a loser!

Edited by Bang on
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1 hour ago, Teodore said:


Crusaders and Linfield away wins? Both are much better and fighting for top spot. 


Amy opinions??? 

Both should really win, and as stated before I think that Linfield are the best team in the league. It's just at 1-8 they do occasionally mess things up.

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