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Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models

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First results: I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.

Hi all, in this thread I'll be sharing the results of my bets on ITF tournaments which I place using a model-based approach. Why ITF? ITF tournaments (lowest tier of professional tennis

Roundup of the first week: Total stake: 45.00 Total winnings: 52.45 (50.08 after tax) ROI: 16.6% (11.3% after tax)

On 11/24/2020 at 1:33 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Ponomar v Arcangioli, W15 Monastir, 1.66 with bet365 - Won 8.30 (7.89)
21 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Stodder v Choinski, M15 Heraklion, 2.37 with bet365 - Won 11.85 (11.26)
  • Mintegi del Olmo v Rame, W15 Gran Canaria, 2.25 with bet365 - Won 11.25 (10.69)
  • Diaz Acosta v Andreev, M15 Heraklion, 2.25 with bet365
  • Kulambayeva v Lovric, W15 Cairo, 2.75 with bet365
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On 11/26/2020 at 6:30 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Koshiishi v Sakellaridi, W15 Heraklion, 2.75 with bet365 - Lost

Had a lot of luck in November resulting in a sizable ROI improvement. Stats since the last update:

  • Total stake: 75.00 (15 bets)
  • Total winnings: 118.20 (112.29 after tax)

Stats since the beginning of the thread:

  • Total stake: 655.00 (131 bets)
  • Total winnings: 729.90 (693.41 after tax)
  • ROI: 11.4% (5.9%)

Next picks to be posted in December.

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17 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Erler v Giacalone, M15 Monastir, 2.20 with bet365 - Won 11.00 (10.45)
  • Kravchenko v Orlov, M15 Antalya, 2.25 with bet365 - Won 11.25 (10.69)
17 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Parry v Cengiz, W15 Antalya, 3.00 with bet365 - Lost

The models were wrong about Cengiz, but luckily the other two picks worked out.

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20 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Aksu v Harris, M15 Antalya, 2.25 with bet365 - Lost

Stats since the last roundup:

  • Total stake: 85.00 (17 bets)
  • Total winnings: 84.55 (80.32 after tax)

Since the beginning of the thread:

  • Total stake: 740.00 (148 bets)
  • Total winnings: 814.45 (773.73 after tax)
  • ROI: 10.1% (4.6%)

I'll be back posting in the week of Jan 4th. Merry Christmas and happy new year everyone!

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