CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 10 - February 16

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WTA St. Petersburg
Alize Cornet - Maria Sakkari  2@1.909 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Bad decission to wait with this bet till morning, but still some value left. Sakkari is really dangerous player right now on all surfaces. Great serv and forhand and good movement. Her bad run at the end of last year was caused by her wrist injury, but now she is fully fit and won very dg indoors player Diatchenko in first round.

Cornet is 22-27 career indoors and thats really poor for longterm top30 player. She won Ivakhnenko and Zvonareva in the qualies, and amazingly bad Ostapenko in the 1st round. This win is overrated by to books now, giving us some nice value.

Maria has better serv and better form I would say, after great AO. Also last two hardcourt h2h matches she won over Cornet, and inddors she might have even little better edge. GL

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Thiago Monteiro (-3,5 Games) to beat Pedro Sousa at 1.86 with 888

Monteiro has won against Jaume Munar and Coric in straight sets and he won the Challenger of Punta del Este (he only dropped 1 set in the whole tournament, against Cecchinato) a few days ago. Pedro Sousa entered as a LL (he lost against Bagnis). He has played the first round against Facundo Díaz, winning it in 3 sets. In the second round he has won against Kovalik in 2 TB. Monteiro is better player and he’s playing really well. The only time these 2 players have played was in Río in 2019 and Monteiro won that match in 2 sets (6-3, 6-2).

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Aljaz Bedene (+3.5 Games) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.06 with 888

Tsitsipas has never achieved good results in Rotterdam (1-3). He won his first match here against Hurkacz but he could have lost that match (he was 1 set down and 1 break down in the second set). Bedene is a great indoor player so If Tsitsipas has a shaky start as he did against Hurkacz I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bedene winning this.

Edited by darko08

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Thomaz Bellucci to beat John Jeffrey Wolf at 6.00 with Boylesports

Since I can now get 6.00 at local and one international, I'm going to post this play, the odds are just ridiculous no matter what happens. Obviously Bellucci is sort of crap already, but the odds are suggesting that he's playing a top 30 player, which he isn't. He still has a decent serve and he's won two matches in a row without dropping a set, while he wasn't all that crap last week either. At 6.00, come on!

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Oceane Dodin (+4,5 Games) to beat Elena Rybakina at 1.85 with 888

Dodin has won all her matches here without dropping a single set (Gracheva, Ferro, Kuzmova and Konta). She’s on her favorite surface and she’s playing really well. Rybakina is one of the most in form players now but I think Dodin is underrated for this one. I was impressed with how Dodin played against Konta and I saw no weaknesses in her game (powerful shots, big serve, good groundstrokes,…) so I think she can trouble Rybakina more than the odds suggest.

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10 hours ago, darko08 said:

Delbonis is playing very bad. I still remember his match against Cuevas in Cordoba. Both players were playing horrible (especially in the first set). In the second set Cuevas did a little bit better and he destroyed Delbonis. In his first match here he could have lost against Dellien. I think Schwartzman will win (probably in 2 sets). Anyway, don't take my opinion seriously because my record this week is horrible..

You're right about how bad Delbonis was against Cuevas and that doesn't bode well for his chances of competing against Schwartzman, but it still feels to me like the prices are a little off. Not a huge lean which is why I'm not playing, but you sometimes get an overreaction in the markets to a bad performance which can make it worth backing the player in poor form in some way or another.

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Aljaz Bedene (+3,5 Games) to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 1.80 with 888

Diego Schwartzman (2-0) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.72 with 888

I repeat with Bedene with the same bet. Felix came here in a bad form. He has won against Struff in a 3 set match and Dimitrov in straight sets. Dimitrov was in a very bad form and Struff played his first match since the AO so I think he’s overrated in this one. Bedene has won against Paire and Tsitsipas (both in straight sets). I like so much how Bedene has played against the Greek today. Tsitsipas started very well and he did not concede any opportunity on serve but Bedene did very well holding his serve and he finally had 3 BP in the 11th Game (breaking Tsitsipas with the first one). In the second set Bedene broke Tsitsipas very early and then he did not concede any BP in the whole set (impressive how Bedene has served in the whole match…).

I understand your reasons Torque but I will follow my feelings and I will take the win of Schwartzman in 2 sets. The reasons are already explained. I have seen Delbonis playing bad in his 2 matches played on clay this season. Schwartzman choked in the Final against Garín but he won against Munar, Ramos and Djere (the first 2 in straight sets).
 

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Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet

Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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22 minutes ago, DrO said:

I'm thinking of one outright pick..Andrey Rublev to win ATP Rotterdam.
Local bookie gives odds 3 for this game. What do you guys think - is there value in it?

It doesn't make me interested at all. Value? At 3 I see no value with thel level of competition that's left.

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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

It doesn't make me interested at all. Value? At 3 I see no value with thel level of competition that's left.

And what competition is that excatly? First the winner of Krajinovic/Pospisil match which is underway. Rublev beat both of them in Davis Cup at the end of the last Year. By the looks of thing it's going to be Krajinovic who he've crushed in Madrid.
Then the better of La Monf/Evans. Decent players,but they are not the players to be frightened of. 

From the other half of draw there are: Busta,Sinner,FFA and Bedene. Rublev holds strong h2h against Busta (4-0) and also solid one against Felix (2-0). 

Don't get me wrong..i appreciate your comment,but the only thing that really put me off from the pick is the low odds. Not the quality of the opponents. 

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Very strange game by Krainovic at the end of second set. He was walking around between points so energically but, at the same time didn’t fight for reachable balls almost at all and did so many mistakes.

He took it in the end against tired Pospisil but I would not rely on Kraj in the next round.

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Casper Ruud (vs Lajovic) + Thiago Monteiro (vs Pedro Sousa) + Andrey Rublev (vs Krajinovic) at 2.50 with 888

Nothing much to say here. 3 players that are big favorites (even more than the odds suggest, I think).

Thiago Monteiro won in Punta del Este and has won his 2 matches here in straight sets (against Munar and Coric). He is so much better than his opponent.

Casper Ruud is has destroyed 2 pure claycourters. He has won against Andujar (6-2, 6-3) and Roberto Carballes (6-1, 6-0). Lajovic could have lost his only match here against a weak player: Pedro Martinez (7-6, 7-6).

Rublev is one of the most in form players now. Krajinovic is playing well but he has a lot of matches in his legs and he suffered a lot against an injured Pospisil.

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Good picks @darko08, however, I've watched the game of Lajovic against Martinez and Lajovic was not so bad. He was just relaxed and did not push the gas pedal so much. And that was his first game on clay in this season. For me odds should be closer to an even pair. @2.62 for Lajovic seems too much. After all, according to statistics, Lajovic is not so bad on clay.

 

Update: @darko08 meanwhile a good start from Ruud ;)

Edited by vvararu

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WTA Hua-Hin
Patricia Maria Tig - Magda Linette 2@1.52 pinnacle /flat 10u/

I wrote about Magda many times last season. She improved from just running defender to a player who can push as well and improved a lot on 1st serv, which lead to many good results on hard court and top50 rankings. Here she seems back in good form as her games with Peng and talented Wang were really quality ones.

I like Tigs progress after 19 months break due to injury and preganancy, but I still rate her much worse player than Linette. Tig had really good draw here, moreover I think Zheng didnt played  on 100% yesterday, as she got really great draw in Dubai qualies for today.

For me Magda is clear favorite here, as she is better player in all aspects of the game and she won better players here already, than Tig is. GL 

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