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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 10 - February 16

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Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet

Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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22 minutes ago, DrO said:

I'm thinking of one outright pick..Andrey Rublev to win ATP Rotterdam.
Local bookie gives odds 3 for this game. What do you guys think - is there value in it?

It doesn't make me interested at all. Value? At 3 I see no value with thel level of competition that's left.

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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

It doesn't make me interested at all. Value? At 3 I see no value with thel level of competition that's left.

And what competition is that excatly? First the winner of Krajinovic/Pospisil match which is underway. Rublev beat both of them in Davis Cup at the end of the last Year. By the looks of thing it's going to be Krajinovic who he've crushed in Madrid.
Then the better of La Monf/Evans. Decent players,but they are not the players to be frightened of. 

From the other half of draw there are: Busta,Sinner,FFA and Bedene. Rublev holds strong h2h against Busta (4-0) and also solid one against Felix (2-0). 

Don't get me wrong..i appreciate your comment,but the only thing that really put me off from the pick is the low odds. Not the quality of the opponents. 

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Very strange game by Krainovic at the end of second set. He was walking around between points so energically but, at the same time didn’t fight for reachable balls almost at all and did so many mistakes.

He took it in the end against tired Pospisil but I would not rely on Kraj in the next round.

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Casper Ruud (vs Lajovic) + Thiago Monteiro (vs Pedro Sousa) + Andrey Rublev (vs Krajinovic) at 2.50 with 888

Nothing much to say here. 3 players that are big favorites (even more than the odds suggest, I think).

Thiago Monteiro won in Punta del Este and has won his 2 matches here in straight sets (against Munar and Coric). He is so much better than his opponent.

Casper Ruud is has destroyed 2 pure claycourters. He has won against Andujar (6-2, 6-3) and Roberto Carballes (6-1, 6-0). Lajovic could have lost his only match here against a weak player: Pedro Martinez (7-6, 7-6).

Rublev is one of the most in form players now. Krajinovic is playing well but he has a lot of matches in his legs and he suffered a lot against an injured Pospisil.

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Good picks @darko08, however, I've watched the game of Lajovic against Martinez and Lajovic was not so bad. He was just relaxed and did not push the gas pedal so much. And that was his first game on clay in this season. For me odds should be closer to an even pair. @2.62 for Lajovic seems too much. After all, according to statistics, Lajovic is not so bad on clay.

 

Update: @darko08 meanwhile a good start from Ruud ;)

Edited by vvararu

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WTA Hua-Hin
Patricia Maria Tig - Magda Linette 2@1.52 pinnacle /flat 10u/

I wrote about Magda many times last season. She improved from just running defender to a player who can push as well and improved a lot on 1st serv, which lead to many good results on hard court and top50 rankings. Here she seems back in good form as her games with Peng and talented Wang were really quality ones.

I like Tigs progress after 19 months break due to injury and preganancy, but I still rate her much worse player than Linette. Tig had really good draw here, moreover I think Zheng didnt played  on 100% yesterday, as she got really great draw in Dubai qualies for today.

For me Magda is clear favorite here, as she is better player in all aspects of the game and she won better players here already, than Tig is. GL 

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Watched the end of his match last night and he definitely picked up an injury. In the end he got across the line through a combination of big-hitting which looked like it was forced on him because his movement was hindered, plus some choking from Cuevas which saw him lose the match on a DF.

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i think pedro sousa is massively underrated in todays buenos aires final. the fact that he is a lucky loser doesn't make him a bad player. he beat kovalik and monteiro in straight sets, that's pretty solid. he had a day off due to schwartzmans withdrawal, while ruud needed three sets in the argentinian heat to somehow grind down londero. ruud was literally done and dusted until londero completely fell apart as he was serving for the match @ 6-4, 5-4. sousa beat ruud in 2018 in three sets and even bageled the norwegian in the opening set back then. i still agree that ruud is somehow the favorite in this, but the odds are terribly wrong imho. buy and trade is probably the best option.

Edited by kedbet

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Pedro Sousa (+4.5 games) to beat Casper Ruud at 2.20 with Unibet

I think Pedro could easily keep this tight enough for Ruud to only win by 4 games or less. It's destined to be Casper who wins in the end because this talented guy from norway will make lots of steps forward this season but as kedbet already pointed out Pedro is massively underrated by the bookies here.

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WTA Dubai
Kristina Mladenovic - Polona Hercog 1@1.84 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Mladenovic really likes to play in Dubai. She was in the semifinals in the 100k ITF in december, where she was robbed by refs and couldnt keep calm mind after that and lost with Snigur. The way she won both rounds here against Paolini and Kasatkina was impressive. Especially against Daria, you need to play lot of winners and with confidence. 

Hercog improved a lot last year, but I still dont like her game so much. She has always lot of problems with smart opponents. Here she had really easy draw with You and Han, still she lost 5 times her serv and won mostly due to asians weaker serv and game.

I believe Polona wont like this matchup, as Mladenovic is changing the pace of the game and will make her run a lot. Moreover Kiki seems in solid form and she really likes it here. Last year she won Osaka here and reached the last 16. Current odds are simply too high. GL

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Pedro is at last going in his brothers footsteps by reaching an ATP final but sad if he's injured and walks onto court injured. Two years ago when Pedro was hot on the challenger tour he reached a clayfinal facing Andrej Martin and Andrej was priced at evens and I just threw everything I had on Pinnacle that Andrej was gonna win which he did easily in straight sets. So Pedro isn't the most reliable guy in finals.

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Hey folks 😉 I'm a relatively new member on this forum so this is my first post over here. 

Seppi vs Edmund (ATP 250 New York Open) - Total Sets 3 @2.62 bet365

I think both players tend to easily lose sets throughout their careers so far. Can't see anyone prevailing in straight sets tonight. My gut says it's gonna be a 2-1 victory for the Italian veteran. Anyway as I said I'm placing a bet on 3 sets. Good luck. 

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