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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 10 - February 16

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Thiago Monteiro to beat Borna Coric at 1.80 with William Hill

Coric is in a bad form and this will be his first match on clay of the season. He never has played before in this tournament. He will play against a pure claycourter. A few days ago Monteiro won in Punta del Este, winning against Cecchinato in the Final. After that, he lost in the first round against Moutet in 2 sets in Cordoba. In his first round here, he has won against a good claycourter (Jaume Munar) in straight sets (6-3, 6-3) so he is the right favorite to win this one.

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Fabio Fognini to beat Karen Khachanov at 2.55 with Parions Sport

 

We all know that Italian is far from the player to trust but I like his state of mind right now. The h2h is 1-1 on hard but a statistic about the Russian caught my attention, he has never managed to pass the 1st round of this tournament in 3 participations. In any case, this match suggests a beautiful show!

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Daria Kasatkina to beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at 3.00 with bet365

I have nothing specific or interesting to say about this match I just think the odds are very good and personally I will try it.

Kasatkina is in very bad place right now mentally but she is an amazing player who in a good day could beat anyone. On the other side Alexandrova is just overrated for me, I do not know why but I feel like her place is not in top 50, I watched many of her’s matches and she has never impressed me at all. So i think to try this match.

Reasons: the odds and because Kasatkina is overall the better play for me.

Last year Kasatkina beat Alexandrova and 2019 was a nightmare for Daria. 

Edited by teodorppv

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I like the odds with Kasatkina, and it looks like a decent bet to me.. I disagree with Analysis of Alexandrova, and think she's more underrated than overrated.. she has a strong return of serve, and very hard consistent groundstrokes. 

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11 minutes ago, money44 said:

I like the odds with Kasatkina, and it looks like a decent bet to me.. I disagree with Analysis of Alexandrova, and think she's more underrated than overrated.. she has a strong return of serve, and very hard consistent groundstrokes. 

About Alexandrova and her shots I agree with you as I said I do not know why I think she is overrated, it is just a feeling, maybe she does not have the spark/magic inside. Yes she is a good returned but she has some problems with her serve and in some matches the serve is more a problem for her than a weapon and I think this match will be one of those because Kasatkina is also a good returner and if she is feeling well , mentally and physically, she will play very aggressive which is going to be very serious problem for Alexandrova in her service games.

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You say Alexandrova has some problems with her serve, what about Kasatkina serve? I dont know why you say that, she has a very decent serve (better than Kasatkina serve, that's for sure...). @money44 has described her well. Kasatkina has won 31 matches on indoors, Alexandrova has more than 120 victories. She's in a very good moment, 2 tournaments already won in this 2020 (In Shenzen she won against Siniakova, Shuai Peng, Q.Wang, Muguruza and Rybakina, the last 2 in straight sets). Cmon, she's not overrated.. Kasatkina will recover her form in some moment but she's not underrated in this one. Too many reasons against her: she's not in form and she plays against a specialist indoor player. She played 2 matches in this kind of courts in 2019 and she lost both. I would be very surprise if Kasatkina wins but she's a great player, for sure, so if she does well done👍

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Well, I have already been -200pts for the season in the past, but I certainly don't want to go through that again :(.

Kimmer Coppejans to beat Frederico Ferreira Silva at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Not sure why Coppejans isn't the favorite here, he has ATP-level potential based on what I've seen from him and I really am not sure why he's still playing Challengers instead of trying to qualify for ATP events. I'm not too concerned about his losses against Safwat, as Safwat is stronger than his name suggests and both losses were tight in any case. Meanwhile, Silva has done relatively little so far in this season.

 

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Marco Cecchinato (-5,5 Games) to beat Roberto Carballes at 3.30 with 888

Cecchinato was horrible in 2019 but he did well here, winning the title (he won against Garín, Roberto Carballes, Pella and Schwartzman, all of them in straight sets…). He did well a few days ago in Punta del Este (he did Final, losing it against Monteiro in a 3 set match). After that he lost in the first round against Londero in 2 sets. Carballes still has not played any match on clay this season. He did not play against Pedro Martínez in Cordoba because he was sick, so he has not played any match since the AO. Too many reasons for not picking Cecchianto in this one (he’s better player, he did Final in Punta del Este, he won here in 2019 and Roberto has not played any match since the AO…). The only concern I have is that I never have trust in this player and that’s why I bet this big handicap. If he wants he can beat Roberto easily but if it becomes one of those “strange” matches from Cecchinato I prefer to lose a big priced bet.

Edited by darko08

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Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Anastasia Potapova at 1.72 with bet365

Tomljanovic has played really well today against Vondrousova. Potapova has won 3 matches here without dropping a single set but considering the players she has faced I’m not surprised (Di Giuseppe, Parmentier and Samsonova). If Tomjlanovic plays similar as she did today against the Czech she should win this match.

I'm not predicting well the matches. Mladenovic and Vondrousova have lost (this last one has shocked me). Alexandrova could have lost against Daria and Cecchinato has been a mess again (bye-bye top 100). I have some bets pending. Ostapenko, Monteiro, Molteni/Mayer and this one. If I lose more than one I will take a break..
 

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10pts Oceane Dodin to beat Johanna Konta (WTA St. Petersburg) @ 2.50 Betway

Not much to say about this one - Konta has been struggling with injury and is still to get a win this season, whilst Dodin has picked up three wins without dropping a set in qualifying. It's fair to say that question marks over Konta's fitness have been factored into her price, but even so I think it's worth taking her on as if any signs of injury appear I'm not sure how hard she'll push for a win.

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Tomljanovic played a total of 2 lost matches on h1 in 2018-19. Odd 1.72 has no value at all, imo.
Bencic still plays poorly this year, I think 2.2 (bet365) on Kuznetsova is encouraging.

Mladenovic lost recently both Thiem and Bajin; remembering her decline in form after split from Garcia, placing bets on her is quite risky, imo.

Edited by lelit

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Okay, I'll try to switch to the WTA for a while, since I finally like something there.

Xiaodi You to beat Patricia Tig at 4.00 with William Hill

Taking a big risk again, but the odds just don't make any sense. The two have already met in this season and Tig won in three sets, so You has nothing to fear, especially after scoring a very confident win in the first round. Tig is obviously better and she has more consistency from the baseline, but, technically, I think something like 3.20 would be way more reasonable. Hoping for some luck as well and I'll be looking to stay with the WTA for a while now. :hope

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A pick for WTA Hua Hin 2nd round match

WANG-KAWA 2:0 SETS @ 1.5 pinnacle / unibet and others
Wang is in great form this year, winning a lot of matches (including vs. Williams at Australian Open). She is a much better player, expect an easy win for her.

 

Edited by WinningTipster

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Alizé Cornet to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.80 with Parions Sport

H2h is 2-0 for Sakkari but if the French woman has to beat her one day it is here and now considering the surgical victories that she has acquired in Saint Petersburg. For her part,  as I expected, the Greek made me a bad impression during her last match against Diatchenko.. She conceded 17 break points to the Russian and can be happy that this one lost her abilities with her service (16 DF) after winning the 1st set without incident.. I've seen a lot of frustration in Sakkari's game so if Cornet play at 70% of what she has done since the beginning it will be enough.

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Nothing for me today, although I was tempted to back Delbonis against Schwartzman. Instinctively his price looks too big - it's not as though he isn't a good clay court player, plus Schwartzman was disappointing against Garin in the Cordoba final. Also you get such swings in clay matches that even if Schwartzman wins it could be in three lopsided sets, which would mean Delbonis on a set plus would come in and on a game plus most likely as well. 

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Book: Will Hill - Good luck everyone, and hope to produce some results here.. Advanced betting strategy that will be difficult to fail if correctly administered as written.

Facundo Bagnis to beat Pella 3.2 - 10 pt

I adore this bet as I've mentioned before that Pella is not in form, and lost to Moutet in a match which he played very poorly. Bagnis is a player that I respect especially on the clay, and I've got the match rated as a 60%Bagnis/40 %Pella

Allison Van Uytvanck to beat Kvitova 4.6 - 10 pt

I watched some clips of Uytvanck's recent match in Russia, and was extremely susrprised with some brilliant shots.. These are only highlights, but if she's playing this good Petra is in big trouble.. Usually I don't like much what I've seen from the Belgian, but that wasn't the case in her last match, and I think pushed aside a tough opponent rather easily.. I also think Petra will have trouble with some her low trajectory approach shots, and the Beglian has a solid indoor record which only confirms the value. 45%Van UytVanck/55%Kvitova

Alexander Bublik to beat Rublev 4.8 - 6 pt

Some of us here in the forum may have lost an important bet on NIkoloz to beat Rublev. I did, and maybe I shouldn't speak on others behalf.. Just had a feeling.. This was a poor decision because NIkoloz is not a good server, and his record in Rotterdam is not great either. Fucsovics dispatched of him very easily a couple of years ago in straight sets.. It was a terrible performance from him, and I am borderline blacklisting him from my bets now.. I really like his game, but unfortunately think Nikoloz best years are behind him now, and there is some trouble with his knee.. We've discussed Bublik.. Also I don't believe is 100% but he is amazing indoor player, and has one of the best serves on tour. The value here is too much to turn down, and I'm rating the match 35%Bublik/65%Rublev

__

Parlay  Koepfer 2.75, Albert Ramos 2.4, Londero 1.9, Vekic 2.2 -1 pt (26/1)

Parlay Sakkari 1.83, Kudermetova 3.8, Bedene 4.3, Thompson 2.6 - .5 pt(78/1)

 

 

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

Nothing for me today, although I was tempted to back Delbonis against Schwartzman. Instinctively his price looks too big - it's not as though he isn't a good clay court player, plus Schwartzman was disappointing against Garin in the Cordoba final. Also you get such swings in clay matches that even if Schwartzman wins it could be in three lopsided sets, which would mean Delbonis on a set plus would come in and on a game plus most likely as well. 

Delbonis is playing very bad. I still remember his match against Cuevas in Cordoba. Both players were playing horrible (especially in the first set). In the second set Cuevas did a little bit better and he destroyed Delbonis. In his first match here he could have lost against Dellien. I think Schwartzman will win (probably in 2 sets). Anyway, don't take my opinion seriously because my record this week is horrible..

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6 hours ago, FrenchPunter said:

Alizé Cornet to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.80 with Parions Sport

H2h is 2-0 for Sakkari but if the French woman has to beat her one day it is here and now considering the surgical victories that she has acquired in Saint Petersburg. For her part,  as I expected, the Greek made me a bad impression during her last match against Diatchenko.. She conceded 17 break points to the Russian and can be happy that this one lost her abilities with her service (16 DF) after winning the 1st set without incident.. I've seen a lot of frustration in Sakkari's game so if Cornet play at 70% of what she has done since the beginning it will be enough.

I was torn between Sakkari, and Linette which is the better option.  I have seen this post from you now, and believe it may hold relevance.. Scares me a bit with Sakkari.. but its always good to have diversification so who knows.. I'll take Linette in a something else .. maybe with the same corresponding picks as sakkari. Its pretty clear on the score cards Cornet is getting at done, and I think she's a good player to back.. I chose Sakkari because of Linette's ailments earlier in the season. 

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WTA St. Petersburg
Alize Cornet - Maria Sakkari  2@1.909 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Bad decission to wait with this bet till morning, but still some value left. Sakkari is really dangerous player right now on all surfaces. Great serv and forhand and good movement. Her bad run at the end of last year was caused by her wrist injury, but now she is fully fit and won very dg indoors player Diatchenko in first round.

Cornet is 22-27 career indoors and thats really poor for longterm top30 player. She won Ivakhnenko and Zvonareva in the qualies, and amazingly bad Ostapenko in the 1st round. This win is overrated by to books now, giving us some nice value.

Maria has better serv and better form I would say, after great AO. Also last two hardcourt h2h matches she won over Cornet, and inddors she might have even little better edge. GL

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Thiago Monteiro (-3,5 Games) to beat Pedro Sousa at 1.86 with 888

Monteiro has won against Jaume Munar and Coric in straight sets and he won the Challenger of Punta del Este (he only dropped 1 set in the whole tournament, against Cecchinato) a few days ago. Pedro Sousa entered as a LL (he lost against Bagnis). He has played the first round against Facundo Díaz, winning it in 3 sets. In the second round he has won against Kovalik in 2 TB. Monteiro is better player and he’s playing really well. The only time these 2 players have played was in Río in 2019 and Monteiro won that match in 2 sets (6-3, 6-2).

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Aljaz Bedene (+3.5 Games) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.06 with 888

Tsitsipas has never achieved good results in Rotterdam (1-3). He won his first match here against Hurkacz but he could have lost that match (he was 1 set down and 1 break down in the second set). Bedene is a great indoor player so If Tsitsipas has a shaky start as he did against Hurkacz I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bedene winning this.

Edited by darko08

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Thomaz Bellucci to beat John Jeffrey Wolf at 6.00 with Boylesports

Since I can now get 6.00 at local and one international, I'm going to post this play, the odds are just ridiculous no matter what happens. Obviously Bellucci is sort of crap already, but the odds are suggesting that he's playing a top 30 player, which he isn't. He still has a decent serve and he's won two matches in a row without dropping a set, while he wasn't all that crap last week either. At 6.00, come on!

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Oceane Dodin (+4,5 Games) to beat Elena Rybakina at 1.85 with 888

Dodin has won all her matches here without dropping a single set (Gracheva, Ferro, Kuzmova and Konta). She’s on her favorite surface and she’s playing really well. Rybakina is one of the most in form players now but I think Dodin is underrated for this one. I was impressed with how Dodin played against Konta and I saw no weaknesses in her game (powerful shots, big serve, good groundstrokes,…) so I think she can trouble Rybakina more than the odds suggest.

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10 hours ago, darko08 said:

Delbonis is playing very bad. I still remember his match against Cuevas in Cordoba. Both players were playing horrible (especially in the first set). In the second set Cuevas did a little bit better and he destroyed Delbonis. In his first match here he could have lost against Dellien. I think Schwartzman will win (probably in 2 sets). Anyway, don't take my opinion seriously because my record this week is horrible..

You're right about how bad Delbonis was against Cuevas and that doesn't bode well for his chances of competing against Schwartzman, but it still feels to me like the prices are a little off. Not a huge lean which is why I'm not playing, but you sometimes get an overreaction in the markets to a bad performance which can make it worth backing the player in poor form in some way or another.

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Aljaz Bedene (+3,5 Games) to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 1.80 with 888

Diego Schwartzman (2-0) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.72 with 888

I repeat with Bedene with the same bet. Felix came here in a bad form. He has won against Struff in a 3 set match and Dimitrov in straight sets. Dimitrov was in a very bad form and Struff played his first match since the AO so I think he’s overrated in this one. Bedene has won against Paire and Tsitsipas (both in straight sets). I like so much how Bedene has played against the Greek today. Tsitsipas started very well and he did not concede any opportunity on serve but Bedene did very well holding his serve and he finally had 3 BP in the 11th Game (breaking Tsitsipas with the first one). In the second set Bedene broke Tsitsipas very early and then he did not concede any BP in the whole set (impressive how Bedene has served in the whole match…).

I understand your reasons Torque but I will follow my feelings and I will take the win of Schwartzman in 2 sets. The reasons are already explained. I have seen Delbonis playing bad in his 2 matches played on clay this season. Schwartzman choked in the Final against Garín but he won against Munar, Ramos and Djere (the first 2 in straight sets).
 

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