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NIFL & Welsh Cup Predictions > Jan 24th - 27th


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Wales on Friday (Saturday to follow...)

A couple of bookies have priced up the Cymru South match between Taff's Well and Goytre.  Both are well out of form but Goytre are still 4/7.  However, Taff's Well 11/10 double chance looks statistically worth taking but is too short for me to take a risk on two sides I know little about, especially as Goytre are the higher team.

In the cup, Flint v Colwyn Bay could be a cracker.  Flint are a distant second behind Prestatyn, and haven't fully convinced me the couple of times I've seen them, and their recent draw at struggling Porthmadog despite being two up in the dying stages cost me a few pence :@  Bay are nicely positioned in the top half but again, having seen them twice, I'd have Flint as favourites; not quite 11/20 favourites and although tempted by the 5/4 Bay/draw I've decided on the road I'd want longer odds to have Bay avoiding defeat.

Penybont host Cardiff Met.  Cardiff should progress but both sides have been on reasonable runs recently and the prices look about right.

Finally, Ammanford host Caernarfon.  We've discussed Caernarfon's poor form on this forum and I'd like to be brave and oppose them, but again the prices look about right.

So, no bets for me tonight. 

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Saturday's Welsh Cup games...

(I can't find any prices for Newtown v Rhyl, nor any suggestion it's not being played...)

Cefn Druids, Connah's Quay and TNS all have very winnable home ties which is reflected in the odds, with a treble paying 1.4/1.  I've decided instead to play a low stake long odds game of hunt the shock, and I've gone for Aberystwyth double chance at TNS.  The home side are rightly heavy favourites, although I think 1/9 is way too short and I give Aber more than Paddy's 11/2 of avoiding defeat; my price would be around 4/1.  Aber have recruited well during this window, and impressed me when I saw them beat an admittedly below par Caernarfon 3-0 away a couple of weeks ago, which was a much better performance than the previous times I've seen them.  Most of their new signings are available to play in the cup, acvcording to Aber's preview.  I still make TNS heavy favourites but they have already lost at home to Cardiff MU recently so aren't unbeatable, and I think this is priced on Aber's league position, rather than the capabilities of their current, slightly strengthened, squad.

I'm also having a speculative draw/draw HT/FT in the Swansea U v Prestatyn game (13/2, Bet365).  Both sides are top of their level 2 league; Prestatyn runaway, Swansea fighting top spot out with Haverfordwest.  I'm having difficulty separating the sides, as are the bookies, with a lot pricing both teams at 7/5.  I've not seen Prestatyn this season, but the chasing Cymru North sides are decent enough and with their 12-point lead Prestatyn are presumably better.  Swansea's fewer points per game is balanced by home advantage which may mean a lot given the distance Prestatyn have to travel.  So I can't separate the sides either and a cagy, low scoring draw is a plausible scenario.

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Just like @Wiltshire ShotI looked at the 3 Welsh cup games,Cefn Druids/Connah's Quay/T.N.S all at home to lower league opposition.

As for Northern Ireland, again there are some very short ones Linfield (Home record 9-2-1), Crusaders (Home record 8-2-3) , as well as Carrick at home to Warrenpoint (Away record 1-1-11).

So, putting all the short ones together - Cefn Druids(Won 2-0), Connah Quay's(Won 8-0), T.N.S(Won 4-0), Linfield(Won 8-1), Crusaders(Won 2-0), and Carrick(lost 2-1) produces a 6 fold (which is something I never do usually), and pays 1.92/1 which I will play to minimum stakes.

Edited by Bang on
scores added
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Coleraine vs Cliftonville

OK, so this a bit weird. Previewing the Northern Irish Premier League rather than the Cymru Premier. Well, let's see what we can do anyway. It's Coleraine versus Cliftonville in a 7:45pm GMT kick-off on Monday night. It's a battle between two clubs that are fighting to qualify for European football and whoever wins this game will have a big advantage heading into the deeper stages of the season.

Coleraine are in 4th place and only 4 points behind Linfield who occupy the automatic Europa League qualification spot in 2nd position. Manager Oran Kearney will be a familiar name to fans of Scottish football having previously managed St Mirren in the SPL. His team come into this game in decent form with just 1 loss from their last 6 games across all competitions. However, when they last played Cliftonville back on 21st December, it was their opponents who prevailed as 1-0 winners. On the positive front, just 1 defeat in the league at home all season will give them confidence.

Cliftonville will undoubtedly feel they can take all 3 points here after beating Coleraine just a few weeks ago before Christmas. Paddy McLaughlin's side secured the County Antrim Trophy last week after stunning Ballymena with two goals in 2 minutes. The club is also in 5th place and just 4 points off the European spots. The fact they boast the second best away record in the division will give them a belief they can take something from this game.

This is a tricky one for me to call. Coleraine are playing well at the moment but they've come a bit unstuck at home lately. Cliftonville have lost 2 of their last 3 matches but that trophy win last week could give them a huge boost. I was tempted to back the draw but I actually think Cliftonville might struggle with a hangover after the euphoria of the dramatic win last week. So I'm controversially going for a home win.

Coleraine to Win @ 2.60 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.42 with Marathonbet

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