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NIFL & Cymru Premier Predictions > Jan 18th

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The one that stands out for me is Ballymena (lost 0-3) at home to Glenavon. Ballymena are not a top side but Glenavon have lost 9 of their 11 away games and this could add another defeat, at odds of 11/10 it looks worth a bet.

Of the Welsh games I fancy TNS (Won 2-1) to win the top of the table clash and may have a small double on them with Barry Town (Won 7-1to get back on track at home to Carmarthen, the double pays just under 6/4.

Edited by Bang on
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Some thought on some Wales games, after a break from betting following a busy Christmas period.

First, Bet365 has priced up Friday's games in the North and South which all look about right to me so I'm not investing.

Aberystwyth v Penybont: I saw Aber spring a surprise by gaining a deserved victory at Caernarfon last week.  Although the strong wind was a leveller to some extent and Caernarfon are struggling with injuries, I was still impressed with Aber.  I've been critical of them this season, but against Caernarfon they threw in three new signings and put in easily the best performance of the four (including two on TV) I've seen this season and the win was definitely no fluke.  They now face strugglers Penybont who themselves are having a relative upturn in form, with no defeat in three.  Despite that I liked the look of Aberystwyth; I'd have liked 6/4 but Betway's 11/8 still seems to me to sit just the right side of value so I've taken it.

Bala v Cefn Druids: Bala are probably out of the title race but can't relax as they'll want to push for an automatic Europa League place after missing out in the play-offs last year.  Druids' good form has come to an abrupt end with no win in four, although two defeats against TNS are forgivable.  I'll probably be there (as part of a double header with Corwen, just up the road from Bala with a 2pm start) and as I like to have an interest in games I'm at I've taken Bala at Sky's 8/15, although I think that's way too short.

Like @Bang on, I think Barry should have too much for Carmarthen.  I'm staying away though because I'm still not convinced Barry have their consistency back, and also because Carmarthen shown a slight improvement in recent weeks which makes the price on Barry seem short.

Other three matches to follow.

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The second three Welsh games...

Cardiff Met v Caernarfon:  A few weeks ago I'd have taken Caernarfon for this, but the students' upturn in form - including a deserved win at TNS - and Caernarfon's own dip in form will see me stay away.

Newtown v Airbus:  Newtown's only defeats in eight have come against the top two and Airbus haven't won in seven, including some comprehensive defeats.  However, that's reflected in the price which puts me off, in addition to Newtown needing a point to qualify for the Championship Group which puts a lot of pressure on the home side.

TNS v Connah's Quay: The top two meet.  There is only a point between them so the Nomads have more or less matched TNS stride for stride.  I watched the return game on the box, where he Nomads fully deserved their draw.  As the table has them evenly matched, I find it difficult to see why the hosts are around 1/2; I'd have them 4/5 at the very longest and probably nearer evens.  So, I'm opposing TNS (Nomads/draw) at Betway's 11/8.  As they'll play each other twice more a strategic draw might be acceptable to both sides rather than risk defeat, so this could be a cagy match with both sides settling for a low scoring draw; a draw and under 2.5 is around 4/1, although as I've already put a bet on I've not taken it.

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Cardiff Met Uni vs Caernarfon

OK, so it's the final round of Cymru Premier matches before the league split happens. That's when you can tell spring time is on its way! I'm going to jump into the shark-infested waters that @Wiltshire Shot wasn't keen on getting involved in by covering the vital clash between Cardiff Met Uni and Caernarfon that kicks off at 5:30pm GMT on Saturday evening at Cardiff Met Cyncoed Campus in Cardiff.

Cardiff Met Uni will be disappointed that the odds are firmly against them to qualify for the top half of the table. The Archers are in 7th place and 3 points behind 6th placed Newtown heading into the last round of games before the split. Christian Edwards will hope that his team will win and Newtown will lose allowing his club to qualify on goal difference. It's a tall order though. Cefn Druids are also level on points with Cardiff Met Uni so shouldn't be ruled out either.

Caernarfon are safe in the top half of the table in 5th place and it looks like the Europa League play-offs are their final destination this season. The Canaries have perhaps been over reliant on their home form this season and failure to win any of their last 4 league games including failing to even score in 3 of them has been a demoralising downturn in form. It's a lot to ask for them to visit an in-form Cardiff Met Uni who have so much to play for and expect them to get something.

For me, this game is all about Cardiff Met Uni doing their job to try and give themselves the best chance necessary to qualify for the top half. That would guarantee them a Europa League play-off spot. If they end up in the bottom half then there's a chance that they might not even reach that stage with Cefn Druids still battling away. I think Cardiff Met Uni should be motivated enough to do their bit. I'm just not sure Newtown will lose their game.

Cardiff Met Uni to Win @ 2.50 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.89 with Marathonbet

@Cheltenhamwhite and @Bang on, do you agree with my predictions here?

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In reply to @StevieDay1983if I were to get involved I would just marginally favour Cardiff Met Uni. As you say Caernarfon are safe in the top half, and their away form is not as good as at home (W3 D2 L5). The reason I didn't mention them is that the way I see this game is low scoring. Cardiff Met Uni (scored just 8 in 10 home games) and Caernarfon (scored 11 in 10 away games). I would go with the draw at 3.20 if having a bet, although I am more likely to give it a miss.

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