Dutching etc.

[Valiant Thor]

@Villa Chris

I wouldn't be put off by 1 race, If you have an SR of say 35% you still have to get used to losing 65% of the time and thats the hard bit to take.

Find a system, method etc that you feel comfortable with and basically analyse it to death, it will save you money in the long run.

If your into statistical modelling then I can recommend Winning at the Races by William Quirin Phd a maths/computer science professor

Document every bet and dont bullshit yourself by blaming jockeys,horses trainers etc when things go wrong (and they will) as it wasn't them who made you put the bet on, at the end of the day it was your own decision.

Good luck whatever you chose .

[Villa Chris]

I’ve been keeping an eye on it for a few weeks now. The first three that I picked out won, and were at decent prices. Picked a few out last week and they all lost.  The ones that won were in higher class races 2 and 3. Last weeks losses were in lower class races 5 and 6. It’s no doubt coincidence, but I’ve heard some people say don’t bother with higher class races and others say don’t bother with lower class races as the form is very unpredictable.

[Valiant Thor]

@Villa Chris

I was once told by someone a lot more knowledgable than me " If you rummage around in garbage , your almost certain to come out with garbage"

In other words stick to the better class races and you'll get a better picture of how your selection methods are

[Villa Chris]

Thanks for the replies. Much appreciated.

[Trotter]

I spent a few years concentrating on AW handicaps and formulated an opinion on race classes to concentrate on

For what it's worth my experience was that any race presented a betting opportunity but you were looking for different things

In the better class handicaps I was looking for horses that had a higher OR than their last winning mark ..... generally the younger and more lightly raced horses in the field....... these would be horses that were still on the up, still improving, moving up the grades

In the lower grade handicaps I was looking for horses falling down the weights who had won similar races in the past and were now getting back to their level ...... particularly if they were getting closer to the winner in their last two or three runs but still dropping in the weights

No evidence to back this up but it seemed to work for me!

 

[Robbert]

Well, what works works!

And Valiant thanks for the reply's!

[Bang on]

On 1/13/2020 at 7:11 PM, Valiant Thor said:

@Villa Chris

I was once told by someone a lot more knowledgable than me " If you rummage around in garbage , your almost certain to come out with garbage"

A very good quote, similar to one that I try to stick with.. "Invest in Quality".  The reason behind it is that the people at the top (Top trainers, top jockeys) make fewer mistakes.

@RobbertGood luck in your quest, the only advice I would give is to try and find a bit better prices (especially avoid odds on) as profits should increase if your selection method has merit.

[Robbert]

@Bang on

Thanks!

I exactly did that. I got my own selection proces now. I know what races to bet and not to bet etc. Plus i think my selection process has merit.
I am recording my bets with TSM. So time wil tell!

[Villa Chris]

Well I did the RPR trick on Saturday. Didn’t look at anything below a class 4. Three horses fit the bill and two won. The one that didn’t win was in the same race as Billingsley that fit the criteria.