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richard-westwood

Carribean or bust

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Had a few discussions with people and seems there's a taste for a bit of fun this year and a thirst for decent big wins ...... trying to get a bit of excitement involved in  the weekly racing mainly the big weekend races and regular big festivals .....so I'll start this topic devoted solely to bets on 2 of the best weekend races ....prices allowing of course ....if I can only find 1 race with decent odds to risk ratio then it will be one or even none if all crap ......main aim is to just have a bit of fun with the weekend big races using my ratings whilst having a shot at a big win each week and who knows what could happen ....might bust out ....or with a touch of luck if I can build up a decent win here or there there might be an excess at some point enough to book a nice holiday ......small excess it might just be a weekend in bath lol... or a good couple of weeks and suddenly 600 or 900 up and you could be looking at a week or two somewhere more exotic .... I love my racing anyway and I like to get involved anyway so can't really lose but it will certainly be fun to try and if the first race wins each week it will generate some exciting 2nd races especially if the prices are big and you are looking at booking up that week ...eek...I.e 3pts on 12/1 is 39 pts ....carrying onto 16/1 2nd leg ..wins around 663 for the doubles and aboutv140 for the singles roughly so that's 800pts ....airport here I come !!

I've come up with a few rules and strategy .....I'll stick mainly to big hcaps and probably rate as many as I can ....hopefully 4+ and pick the strongest 2 races I can where the top 2 are furthest ahead of the 3rd rated .....that should be a good starting point ...

Also one of the top 2 must be in the first 5 betting ....as this seems to boost the horses chance twofold sometimes ....it doesn't matter about the 2nd horse as that is effectively the race wildcard and backable at any price especially as win bets I'll be paying attention to betfair prices on the outsiders because I've lost count how many times I've backed at 16/1 with bet365 only to see 25.0 later on betfair which will make a huge difference long term .....

Also I will only be backing Friday evening so as to avoid any non runners .....might mean slightly smaller odds but guaranteed best chance of a run and no loss due to any antepost rules so that will avoid silly losses ...

Overall .....it's not hard ....only what id be doing anyway so I may as well have a shot and have some fun with it 

Start Friday 

Edited by richard-westwood

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Just preparing for first race this week ....I think the lanzarote hurdle will be the first leg this week ....currently 25 runners I've passed the race through the computer and it threw out 4 horses 

Alfa mix 

Burrows edge 

Echiquier

Northofthewall 

I'm open to any suggestions or thoughts from any one....name of the game is to pick the winner from 2 selections however that happens so any thoughts appreciated ...

My current thinking is to wait And see what betting says to see if that helps .....Im thinking top 4 in betting for selection 1 is a must so that might be helpful or not 

2nd I'm sure I've read can Skelton does well in this so even though a novice and only raced at 2 mile really Northofthewall is catching the eye too .....Intersting race 

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Alfa mix    8/1

Burrows edge  8/1

Echiquier  16/1 

Northofthewall 9/1

Current prices suggest echiquier is the weakest of the 4 ....I had Alfa mix written down before I started rating due to his good win on a classy race last time with potentially more to come...yes he's been raised about 9lb but you generally need a touch of class to win this  so I'm happy to see him qualifying so def8nately runner 1 I think with a run ....8/1 would be a fair win start too 

Not sure on other horses yet ....echiquier has patchy form that gives him ew chances at best .....Burrows edge represents good trainer but fell last time which isn't a good prep for a competitive race ......Northofthewall is a lightly weighted improving novice ....I currently think he's 10 -12lb behind Alfa but could improve drastically now stepped up and firing for good trainer ....food for thought 

Edited by richard-westwood

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God ....a day or two later and 2nd pass is usually more accurate but the weights have changed and settled a lot altering the results completely ...

My previous fancy Alfa mix still has a good chance but has dropped to 5th on account of the 13lb rise ...not 9lb ...hccapper has hammered him so although still good that's gonna make life difficult now ...I'll be gutted if still wins now but I've got to trust the ratings 

Chti balko

Burrows park 

Burrows edge 

Northofthewall

Alfa mix 

This is such a hard race ..really is complicated .....I really did like Northofthewall due to trainers decent record but I keep looking at that last run and to be fair it was nothing special ...maybe improved a couple of pounds but is he suddenly going to improve 10lbs + which I think is what is needed and is he even going to handle this distance in such a competitive race ...it's very debatable making his current price a bit crap value tbh ...

Burrows edge is an enigma ....could run really well and is weighted to place ....but falling last time is not ideal 

So currently that leaves burrow park ...and chti balko....I can oppose both tbh ....Burrows park has struggled off this mark in past but has he improved now ??? And chti balko is high in the weights and 8yo both negatives from trends which isn't good but the 10 length destruction of Burrows park is still fresh and collateral form does seem to frank the rating as chti should finish ahead of burrow on that race even allowing for the definite improvement of the latter .....I can't see the ratings changing much now barring the top horses non running so at the moment its looking 

Chti balko

Burrow park 

Both are decent prices currently around 12/1 ....hopefully nothing will change by Friday 

So I can start looking for a 2nd leg now 

 

Edited by richard-westwood

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On 1/7/2020 at 8:29 PM, richard-westwood said:

God ....a day or two later and 2nd pass is usually more accurate but the weights have changed and settled a lot altering the results completely ...

My previous fancy Alfa mix still has a good chance but has dropped to 5th on account of the 13lb rise ...not 9lb ...hccapper has hammered him so although still good that's gonna make life difficult now ...I'll be gutted if still wins now but I've got to trust the ratings 

Chti balko

Burrows park 

Burrows edge 

Northofthewall

Alfa mix 

This is such a hard race ..really is complicated .....I really did like Northofthewall due to trainers decent record but I keep looking at that last run and to be fair it was nothing special ...maybe improved a couple of pounds but is he suddenly going to improve 10lbs + which I think is what is needed and is he even going to handle this distance in such a competitive race ...it's very debatable making his current price a bit crap value tbh ...

Burrows edge is an enigma ....could run really well and is weighted to place ....but falling last time is not ideal 

So currently that leaves burrow park ...and chti balko....I can oppose both tbh ....Burrows park has struggled off this mark in past but has he improved now ??? And chti balko is high in the weights and 8yo both negatives from trends which isn't good but the 10 length destruction of Burrows park is still fresh and collateral form does seem to frank the rating as chti should finish ahead of burrow on that race even allowing for the definite improvement of the latter .....I can't see the ratings changing much now barring the top horses non running so at the moment its looking 

Chti balko

Burrow park 

Both are decent prices currently around 12/1 ....hopefully nothing will change by Friday 

So I can start looking for a 2nd leg now 

 

Well .....disappointing I must say ....chti balko out ....Alfa out ......and on top of that I can't find a suitable 2nd leg this week all the other races there are only a couple of points between the top 3 or 4 in each race so will have to be this single race only this week and I'll trust the ratings and go on the 2 burrow horses ....

Burrows edge 11.89pts 13/2 bet365

Burrows park 8.11pts 10/1 bet365

2x1pt rev forecast 

Almost 70pt profit if either wins 

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On 1/10/2020 at 1:43 PM, richard-westwood said:

Well .....disappointing I must say ....chti balko out ....Alfa out ......and on top of that I can't find a suitable 2nd leg this week all the other races there are only a couple of points between the top 3 or 4 in each race so will have to be this single race only this week and I'll trust the ratings and go on the 2 burrow horses ....

Burrows edge 11.89pts 13/2 bet365

Burrows park 8.11pts 10/1 bet365

2x1pt rev forecast 

Almost 70pt profit if either wins 

Bit dramatic but a win is a win ...67pts pts profit I'll keep 2 running totals ....total profit and a running total including stakes and profit cos if I can bet 20 or 30pts each week and use same money plus profit to pay for an exotic hol I'd still call that a win win 

Total profit 67pts ......total including returned stakes  78pts .....start again next week 

Horses finished 1st and 4th ...not bad 

Edited by richard-westwood

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This week's leg 1 has to be the peter marsh chase ....no doubt a couple will drop out but hopefully a fair few will run as many of them have wins on soft ....

Currently the computer has narrowed to 3 ...

Vintage clouds 230 +2

Prime venture 228 +2 

Daklondike 225 +1 

Hard to separate them currently so hopefully one will drop out and make it easier or I might alter stakes and cover all 3 if odds allow as these 3 are clear of rest and I can't rule out Daklondike completely  for a powerful stable ......I really like vintage clouds ....loves haydock ..last 4 runs here are  3213...and is looking a well hcapped horse ....should run well ....prime venture ran in a very strong looking race behind yala enki....that looks strong form so has the ability for sure ......looking for race 2 now ....plenty of action so hopefully I can find a 2nd leg 

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

I always back Vintage Clouds. One of my favourite horses. Won’t be backing him over the national fences again though, and is well handicapped. Stayed on very well in its last run after it looked like he was going to finish nowhere again. 

Well he has seemed exposed for a while but he's dropped to a nice mark now and he loves haydock so I think he's fab ew material for this race ....he's got to run well surely ....I hope lol

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Well...the weather is atrocious but let's have a go .....

240 hay 

Prime venture 4.54 pts win 6/1 b365

Vintage clouds 3.34pts win 17/2 Willh

3.00 asc

Espoire de guye 6.35pts win 4/1 bet365

Happy diva 5.77pts win 9/2 b365 

Plus 4 x 2.5 pts win doubles 

Any 1 winner will return a 1.75pt profit overall...2 winners a 100+ profit 

 

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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Well...the weather is atrocious but let's have a go .....

240 hay 

Prime venture 4.54 pts win 6/1 b365

Vintage clouds 3.34pts win 17/2 Willh

3.00 asc

Espoire de guye 6.35pts win 4/1 bet365

Happy diva 5.77pts win 9/2 b365 

Plus 4 x 2.5 pts win doubles 

Any 1 winner will return a 1.75pt profit overall...2 winners a 100+ profit 

 

Espoire de Guye Non runner 

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Non runner probably did us a favour today especially as the ground was so bad I wasn't expecting much but overall finished with a 13.10 pt profit .....so that's as good as I could have wished for ....

Vintage clouds loves it at haydock and was looking really well weighted so he did himself justice .

Total profit 80.10pts .........total including returned stakes to date ..94.34 pts 

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Skybet chase 

Azzerti  234 +2 

Good man pat 232 +2 

 Ravenhill road 229 +3 

Weights and runners changed so ratings altered accordingly .....top 2 look the ones I want to be on now although ravenhill could improve past them but that's speculative so I'll stick with top 2 

Azzerti 3.5pts win 9/1 willh

Good man pat 2.5pts win 12/1 bet365

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