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Premier League Predictions > Jan 10th - 12th


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Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:

  1. Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings;
  2. Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches;
  3. I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing);
  4. If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits.

All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Edited by Charon84
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8 hours ago, Charon84 said:

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:

  1. Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings;
  2. Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches;
  3. I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing);
  4. If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits.

All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Agree!  btw Bet365 pays 2.30 under 3.00 and 2.50 under 3.5

Other than that, Brighton can beat Everton (4.10 Bet365) but I'll play safe -- AH +0.75 @@ 2.30 Bet365

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, +2.5 under @@ 2.10 Bet365

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Sheffield United vs West Ham

The Premier League action kicks off on Friday night at 8pm GMT this week when Sheffield United host West Ham at Bramall Lane. If this game was being played a few weeks ago then you'd be forgiven for writing off the away team right now but it's amazing how a change of manager can completely alter the landscape. This might not be so easy for the home team to take all three points.

Sheffield United continue to hit heights well above their expectation levels this season. Chris Wilder's men are currently in 8th place in the league table and even without a win in three league games there's a feeling that it'll only be a matter of time before the team gets back on track. The Blades have an inconsistent record at home with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats at their own ground. However, two of those losses in the league came against the top two sides in Liverpool and Leicester.

West Ham enter this game in a period of rejuvenation under new gaffer David Moyes. The Hammers board were criticised for showing a lack of ambition with Moyes as the option but it further cemented the belief of the club's fans that the current owners will be selling up in 18 months. The only aim is to keep the club in the top flight and an attractive purchase for potential buyers in 2021. It might only have been two games since Moyes came in but already the improvements are obvious after the 4-0 hammering of Bournemouth and the comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham in the FA Cup.

Everything that has gone before this season no longer counts for the Hammers. Moyes has injected a new sense of confidence and organisation. It's amazing how much impact he's had in such a short space of time. Especially with the defence. I'm having difficulty working out which way this game will go. I keep swaying between wanting to back a Blades win and a Hammers win. So it makes sense for me to just cut out the conflict in my head and opt for the draw given United's current blip and West Ham's renewed vigour.

Draw @ 3.60 with Sportingbet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.83 with BetVictor

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Sheffield Utd vs West Ham

Sheffield Utd

Doubtful: Simon Moore (1/0 g), Michael Verrips (0/0 g)

Out (injuries/other): -

Suspended: -

 

West Ham

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Ryan Fredericks (18/0 d), David Martin (4/0 g), Michail Antonio (9/1 m), Jack Wilshere (6/0 m), Andriy Yarmolenko (15/3 f)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Spurs have no chance vs Liverpool.  Not going to punt on this one but if I did it would be Liverpool to win to 0, especially with Kane out.  Liverpool just don't drop points, and will score at least twice against this spurs defence.

This looks a tough set of fixtures to me, the only two that appeal to me are two long shots on the handicaps.  Firstly Southampton +1 vs Leicester at around 2.2.  Southampton have managed to beat Chelsea and spurs recently, and seem to have found some form.  Leicester have slowed down a bit from their earlier form and had the extra game in midweek to contend with.  I think Southampton will be keen to avenge the 9-0 scoreline from earlier in the season, and I can see them going there and getting at least a draw.  Norwich managed a draw away at Leicester not too long ago so a draw here would not be too big a shock.

I'm also on Burnley +1 at Chelsea at 3.8.  Chelsea have struggled at home against lower level teams, losing recently at home to Southampton, Bournemouth and West Ham.  All three teams were on a poor run of form at the time, yet still managed to beat Chelsea.  Burnley are going through a bit of a difficult spell in the PL, and will set up to frustrate Chelsea.  Burnley do have a goal or two in them though, so again I think they are capable of going to Chelsea and not losing.  I certainly wouldn't want my money on Chelsea at such short odds given their poor home record.

 

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Sheffield Utd V West Ham

The price has come in slightly but I do think odds are still a bit generous for West Ham here. The spirit level will have gone up since Moyes arrived and they have lots of players with good defensive contribution which is important when facing a high octane team like Sheffield Utd. There isn't really anything in the ELO ratings or key goal metrics to suggest the away team should be this long either. West Ham to cover the draw and away win at close to EVS looks to be the value play in this situation.

West Ham +0.50 AH @ 1.90 Matchbook

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Liverpool have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches in Premier League.
71% of Crystal Palace’s matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.
Brighton have scored in each of their last 6 away matches in Premier League.
Manchester Utd conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 7 home matches in Premier League.
Newcastle Utd have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 99 Football Betting Streaks for 11.01.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-11-01-2020-17342

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We have been seeing a malfunction in Tottenham's attack lately and Cain's absence may have made things even more difficult. Liverpool are serious, but also comfortable. I expect the game to be a derby and to have goals from both teams
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.65

He won over Newcastle and Wigan, but in the match he stayed 1-1 with Villa and will play in the rematch. The reason for Leicester, who has made great appearances this season and at home, has managed to accumulate 23 points in 10 games. Southampton have good momentum, coming from two consecutive doubles in Chelsea and Aston Villa, but today's job will be extremely difficult. Leicester have the second best defense after Liverpool and will not allow many goals for the visitors. Midfielders are excellent and rightly favored today
LEICESTER CITY vs SOUTHAMPTON FC @@ LEICESTER CITY, odds 1.60

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Tottenham vs Liverpool

Well, after VAR destroying our bet backing a draw last night, I'm going to move swiftly on to the big game in the Premier League this weekend. It's Tottenham versus Liverpool in a 5:30pm GMT kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium later today. The big news ahead of this game is that England talisman Harry Kane is ruled out until April leaving the home side with a dilemma up front.

Tottenham haven't had a very enjoyable season so far. The sacking of Mauricio Pochettino earlier in the campaign broke the hearts of many fans but Jose Mourinho has come in and steadied what was a rocky season. Recent results have started to suffer again since Kane's injury. The 2-2 against Norwich was disappointing and the 1-0 defeat away to Southampton was gut-wrenching. The 1-1 draw away to Middlesbrough in the FA Cup 3rd Round with a relatively strong squad hasn't helped boost morale either. It's looking grim for Spurs heading into this game. Kane being out is bad enough but Mourinho also has to contend with a shortage of options in midfield with Moussa Sissoko, Tanguy Ndombele, and Harry Winks all ruled out or not fully fit.

Liverpool continue to thrive under Jurgen Klopp. The Reds are rampant in their charge towards the Premier League title. It's not even the middle of January yet and they've already won two trophies this season in the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA World Club Championship. They remain undefeated in the league with 19 wins and 1 draw from their 20 league games so far. The gap between themselves and 2nd placed Leicester is now 13 points and they possess a game in hand. James Milner and Naby Keita are injured but otherwise it's a fully fit squad for Klopp's side. 

This could be a messy one for Tottenham. You can be confident that Mourinho will keep the damage limited but any hope of a win is very low. It's only 1 win in their last 14 matches against Liverpool and Liverpool have only lost 1 of their last 6 away matches against Spurs. Liverpool could make it 12 consecutive wins in the league here and I think they will. It won't be a rout but it should be a dominant display.

Liverpool HT/FT @ 2.70 with BetVictor

Liverpool -1 @ 3.00 with SpreadEx

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Wolverhampton v Newcastle

Betting suggestion: 

Short preview:  Here I am not going that much on Wolves like I am going against Newcastle. There is a complete mess with injuries in their team as they are without Manquillo, Shelvey, Schar, Saint-Maximin, Lascelles, Colback, while defenders Lewis and Hanley are doubtful due to illness. Wolverhampton on the other side is without Jota and Boly but without any other problems. After the huge win over Man City, Wolverhampton failed to win in three consecutive matches - losing against Liverpool and Watford and playing a goalless draw with Manchester United in the FA Cup. Newcastle on the other side lost last three Premier League matches (Man United, Everton, Leicester City) with goal difference 9-2 and played 1-1 in FA Cup against the 18th placed team of the third league - Rochdale. All, after all, the advantage of the home pitch, the advantage of the simply better situation with injuries, plus the fact that Wolverhampton simply is the side which posses more quality, I expect all three points to stay at the Molineux Stadium.

 
Tottenham v Liverpool

Betting suggestion:

Short preview: Primary selection is to take the Reds with the straight win, but as the odds dropped even under 1,7 at some bookmakers, I suggest to simply go with the -1 handicap. At the moment, Spurs have simply too many problems as Mourinho can not count on the first goalkeeper Lloris, defensive midfielders Sissoko and Ndombele,  defender Ben Davies and the captain and by far the most important player in attack Harry Kane who will be most likely out until early April. Moreover, Rose and Winks aren't fully fit. Liverpool is coming without some players as well, but from the strongest 11, they miss only Fabinho. I suppose he will include Oxlade Chamberlain in the first lineup, which means they will have another prolific midfielder and Tottenham will really need to be at their best to take something out of this match. In the last five matches, Liverpool have always scored at least two goals and I think nothing will really change today.

 
Leicester v Southampton

Betting suggestion:

Short preview: There were some questions over the injury status of Vardy and Maddison but as it looks, both will start today's match against Southampton. The Saints are in an exceptional form lately, as they are unbeaten for 5 consecutive matches. They've beaten Aston Villa and Chelsea away, and Tottenham and Huddersfield at home, while they shared points with Crystal Palace after 1-1 draw at home. Anyways, today's match will be completely different as they will face a very tough opponent, a team who is well deservedly sitting on the second place of Premier League, playing attractive football, scoring plenty of goals and defending pretty decently this season. With 46 goals scored and 19 goals conceded, they have 3rd best attack and 2nd best defense of the league. With last 5 matches, they ruin their run a bit, as they lost twice and play draw once, but defeats were against Liverpool and Manchester City, while the important thing is that they have returned back to the "winning roads" and won against West Ham and Newcastle - both away. The draw against Aston Villa could have finished completely different as Leicester was by far the better opponent in the match, but that's football. Today against Southampton I don't expect an easy match for The Foxes, but I do expect them to win it. Solid options for those for who 1,68 isn't high enough are also with Leicester and under 3,5 or  4,5 goals.

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Bournemouth vs Watford

The first game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League is a 2pm GMT kick-off between Bournemouth and Watford at the Vitality Stadium. These two sides are experiencing a contrasting turn of fortunes with the home side plummeting down the league table where as the away side are seemingly in a state of resurgence as they look to move closer to safety.

Bournemouth had started this season very well but things have turned sour for Eddie Howe's men. The Cherries are now in the bottom three and 1 point adrift of safety. It's been a dismal run of results that has seen them pick up just 1 win in 10 league games. Perhaps even more worrying is that the last taste of victory on home soil was back on 2nd November. In fact, since that date, they have acquired the lowest points tally of any team in the top flight. A big problem has been the lack of goals with just 0.5 goals scored on average per game over the last 14 matches.

Watford have dragged themselves off the foot of the table under new manager Nigel Pearson. It seems the Hornets have finally found the right appointment after faffing about with Javier Gracia and then Quique Sanchez Flores. The club is now up to 19th and just 1 point behind their opponents heading into this match. Victory could potentially take them out of the relegation zone this weekend. It's now 4 league games without a loss. However, we need to be wary because their away form is still a problem with no victory in their last 4 league games on the road. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have earned more points than Watford since Pearson took charge.

This is a tricky one because I want to back Watford to win this one but I always feel Howe has it in himself to get a result when needed. Something isn't right at Bournemouth at the moment and I probably fancy a draw more than an away win but the home side's form is that awful that I'm not sure I have enough faith to back them to take anything from their games right now. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this weekend and say it'll be a draw but I have a funny feeling I'm going to regret that.

Draw @ 3.45 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.95 with Sportingbet

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Manchester City have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 5 matches in Premier League.
71% of Aston Villa’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Manchester City have scored in 100% of their away matches in Premier League.
86% of Manchester City’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.

You can find interesting 46 Football Betting Streaks for 12.01.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-01-2020-17365

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On 1/8/2020 at 8:04 PM, Charon84 said:

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet

Well, the bet is in. 3+ goals was surely not out of the question this match. Good chances on both sides. But hey, who has ever seen a match were all chances were promoted to goals ;) I think 1-2 was a more fair result. Liverpool wasn't doing that much in last half hour (which almost got them in troubles). First half Liverpool was far better.

Edited by Charon84
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City may have (theoretically) lost the championship train, but it needs to score as many points as it can in the end. Today against the weak Villa has the first reason for the victory, but the "villagers" have proved this year that all opponents are staring. Aston Villa are scoring 9 consecutive home runs and against City's troubled defensive line this season, I think he has a good chance of doing it again.
ASTON VILLA vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

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21 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Bournemouth vs Watford

The first game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League is a 2pm GMT kick-off between Bournemouth and Watford at the Vitality Stadium. These two sides are experiencing a contrasting turn of fortunes with the home side plummeting down the league table where as the away side are seemingly in a state of resurgence as they look to move closer to safety.

Bournemouth had started this season very well but things have turned sour for Eddie Howe's men. The Cherries are now in the bottom three and 1 point adrift of safety. It's been a dismal run of results that has seen them pick up just 1 win in 10 league games. Perhaps even more worrying is that the last taste of victory on home soil was back on 2nd November. In fact, since that date, they have acquired the lowest points tally of any team in the top flight. A big problem has been the lack of goals with just 0.5 goals scored on average per game over the last 14 matches.

Watford have dragged themselves off the foot of the table under new manager Nigel Pearson. It seems the Hornets have finally found the right appointment after faffing about with Javier Gracia and then Quique Sanchez Flores. The club is now up to 19th and just 1 point behind their opponents heading into this match. Victory could potentially take them out of the relegation zone this weekend. It's now 4 league games without a loss. However, we need to be wary because their away form is still a problem with no victory in their last 4 league games on the road. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have earned more points than Watford since Pearson took charge.

This is a tricky one because I want to back Watford to win this one but I always feel Howe has it in himself to get a result when needed. Something isn't right at Bournemouth at the moment and I probably fancy a draw more than an away win but the home side's form is that awful that I'm not sure I have enough faith to back them to take anything from their games right now. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this weekend and say it'll be a draw but I have a funny feeling I'm going to regret that.

Draw @ 3.45 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.95 with Sportingbet

I totally agree with you,this is match not for 3 points,who wins get 6 points,I mean that because,this is game a with huge psychological boost,the side who won will get up in mind and will probably go down,and teams around them lost so draw will be good for both of them,both of them will get a point and no one will be hurt

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I can`t help myself not to back Villa today. I think Asian +2,25 @ 2,00 is a decent bet. I like the atmosphere at Villa Park and I believe home side will do its best to avoid the defeat. Low stakes.

Sorry mates if somebody followed. I did not expect such AWFUL performance by Villa`s defence. Simply awful!

Edited by ivanhoe
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