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Australian Open 2020


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WTA Challenger Andrezieux-Boutheon
Oceane Dodin - Harmony Tan 1@1.5 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Dodin WTA 152 returned to tour in April last year, after long injury break and she already climbed up back by 300 spots in the rankings. She is back in solid form. She is a former top50 player, but I doubt she can get that far again, I expect her around top100. I played her already in AO qualies against Flink, but she got exhausted by that crazy conditions after 6games and couldnt even run. Indoors is her best surface and I expect her agressive game to make the diffrence today.

Tan WTA 242 ia an average player, who never enetered top200 yet. She is also solid on faster surfaces with 60-56 record, but most of the matches played on ITF25 and lower. Her game level is much lower than Dodins for me. Last week she made the final in Petit-Bourg, where she lost to Podoroska.

They both met indoors in october last year, in Cherbourgs final, and Dodin won comfortably 6-4 6-2. Not much changed since that time in terms of quality of both players, so I can see similar scenario here today. GL

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4 hours ago, darko08 said:

@CzechPunter I’m not sure if Barty will have an easy win against Kenin. All the wins of Barty here in straight sets have been against tall players (Hercog, Rybakina and Kvitova). For tall players like these it’s too hard to play against Barty and her slice but she dropped a set against Riske (6-1) and Tsurenko (who has been a mess for a long time). I don’t see Kenin suffering that shot and I see her taking the lead of the match (in some parts of it) and dominating it from the centre court as she usually does. The serve can make the difference of course… (I expect a win of Barty but Kenin can trouble her I think).

I agree.. barty is a bit shaky but my worry is if she gets past the semis she will win the australian open

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Simona Halep to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Just repeating honestly, it still seems to me that Halep isn't getting a lot of respect for reasons I don't understand.

I agree but isn't the odds too straight forward. halep surely can win but her fitness can be bit of a concern. she doesn't like humid climates and gets exhausted.

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On 1/10/2020 at 7:05 AM, Striker said:

Outright am on Denis Shapovalov

Not yet made a real run at a Slam but is only 20, and looked sharp this week in the ATP Cup

 

Each Way @ 50-1 Bet 365

Moaned about withdrawing if air quality did not improve before first round match, and then got beat in first round...player to avoid now:@

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On 1/27/2020 at 6:26 AM, darko08 said:

Sofia Kenin (-3,5 Games) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.81 with 888

After so many matches won by Jabeur as the underdog I think Kenin will be too much for her. She has won against so many big names (Konta, Garcia, Wozniacki and Qiang Wang) but none of them came here in good form. Kenin had 2 easy first rounds but her 2 last matches were against dangerous players. Shuai Zhang was playing really well (Final in Hobart and 2 wins here against Stephens and Mcnally) but Kenin won against her in 2 tight sets (7-5, 7-6). After that match she destroyed Gauff (6-7, 6-3, 6-0). This will be a very nice match to watch. Both players had a lot of variety but I see Kenin more solid from the baseline and Jabeur is more likely to fall in a spiral of errors against players like Kenin.

Garbiñe Muguruza to win the AO at 7.00 with bet365

Muguruza has already won against Kiki Bertens in straight sets. In QF she will play against the winner of the Kerber-Pavlyuchenkova match. Considering how Muguruza has been playing here she is the right favorite to win any of these 2 players (she’s playing better than any of them and she also dominates the h2h against them, especially against Pavlyuchenkova). In SF she will play against the winner of the Halep-Kontaveit match. Halep came here with a lot of doubts but after a scary first set in her first match here against Brady she has won all her matches without problems. Halep still has not played against a big hitters like Muguruza (well, Brady did trouble her in the first set) and the 3 times Halep and Muguruza have played in hard courts Muguruza have won all of them. If Kontaveit won against Halep it will be better for Muguruza because she prefers playing against hitters like her. I don’t know what to expect from Kontaveit. She has destroyed Bencic but she also had a hard match against Swiatek and dropped a set against the weak Sara Sorribes. Anyway, I think Halep will win against Kontaveit so…
The Final will be against Barty, Kvitova, Kenin or Jabeur.

If anyone followed this bet I would suggest to him to make a bet on Kenin to secure benefits because I’m not sure if Muguruza will win this match. Kenin has been impressive in the whole tournament and she has not dropped a single set in any of her matches (Trevisan, Ann Li, Shuai Zhang, Jabeur and Barty). I don’t see Kenin being overwhelmed by the situation because I haven’t seen her that way against Barty. Muguruza has dropped sets against Shelby Rogers (she was ill) and Tomjlanovic. After these 2 matches we saw the best Muguruza, winning in straight sets against Svitolina (6-1, 6-2) and Bertens (6-3, 6-3). She had a very hard match against Pavlyuchenkova (more than the result suggest). Pavlyuchenkova could have won the first set but she collapsed with 3 double faults in the same game (who knows what could have happen if she wouldn’t have done that because she was not playing bad at all except when she was playing with second serves). Her match against Halep have been very tight (especially in the first set with Halep wasting 4 Set Points). Halep was just pushing balls over the net in the first set and Muguruza dominated her. After losing the TB Halep played more aggressive trying to move Muguruza but she received some incredible down the line shots from her (too late to change). The only time Muguruza and Kenin played each other was 4 months ago and Kenin won that match (6-0, 2-6, 6-2). I think Muguruza is the right favorite but I see this as 55-45 match so the smarter decision is put some money on Kenin and secure benefits.

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12 minutes ago, darko08 said:

If anyone followed this bet I would suggest to him to make a bet on Kenin to secure benefits because I’m not sure if Muguruza will win this match. Kenin has been impressive in the whole tournament and she has not dropped a single set in any of her matches (Trevisan, Ann Li, Shuai Zhang, Jabeur and Barty). I don’t see Kenin being overwhelmed by the situation because I haven’t seen her that way against Barty. Muguruza has dropped sets against Shelby Rogers (she was ill) and Tomjlanovic. After these 2 matches we saw the best Muguruza, winning in straight sets against Svitolina (6-1, 6-2) and Bertens (6-3, 6-3). She had a very hard match against Pavlyuchenkova (more than the result suggest). Pavlyuchenkova could have won the first set but she collapsed with 3 double faults in the same game (who knows what could have happen if she wouldn’t have done that because she was not playing bad at all except when she was playing with second serves). Her match against Halep have been very tight (especially in the first set with Halep wasting 4 Set Points). Halep was just pushing balls over the net in the first set and Muguruza dominated her. After losing the TB Halep played more aggressive trying to move Muguruza but she received some incredible down the line shots from her (too late to change). The only time Muguruza and Kenin played each other was 4 months ago and Kenin won that match (6-0, 2-6, 6-2). I think Muguruza is the right favorite but I see this as 55-45 match so the smarter decision is put some money on Kenin and secure benefits.

what is the difference between playing in playoffs and regular games.. same is the difference between playing in a final for the first time against one who knows how to win those. Garbine is hot favorite to win this final.

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@bet4fun I know. I see Garbiñe as the favorite player (that's what I said there). Im just saying that if Kenin is paid at 2.50 or something like that the smarter decision is put some money on her to secure benefits (for the ones who have followed that bet). Kenin has not dropped a single set... she has not been overwhelmed in her semifinal match against the local idol (with the crowd against her) so there's no reason to think she will be overwhelmed against Muguruza in the Final.

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Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer Under 3.5 Sets at 1.79 with 888

Federer should have lost against Millman and Sandgren. I can't believe how he finally won these 2 matches but he did. Federer with physical issues playing against the king of Australia... I can't imagine him winning even a set.

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WTA Australian Open
S Hsieh / B Strycova - T Babos / K Mladenovic 2@1.81 pinnacle /flat 10u/

I thought I am done with AO, but this one is simply too good.

Babos/Mladenovic are the best pair for me, they are playing agressive game, great returns and perfect net anticipation. They had really tough draw since R1 and didnt lost a set against some top teams like Barty/Goerges, Chan sisters or young guns McNally/Gauff.

Strycova/Hsieh are nr1 in the world, but since Wimbledon I see some downtrend in their game. They finished last year with 5 losses from 8 matches. Yes they won Brisbane this year, but only Hardecka/Klepac were the real doubles threat there. Here they had really easy draw, the only top team were Siniakova/Krejcikova in the semis, but they really hate smart tennis which Bara and Su-Wei produces.

It is close match on the paper, but not for me accoding to what I saw here. I am clearly on Babos/Maldenovic side. They met two times last year, In Wimbledon, Strycova/Hsieh won tight battle, but we all know how Strycova was playing her lifetime tournament there and that Hsiehs shots are soo difficult to play against on grass. Second time they met on masters on hardcourt, and B/M won easily 6-3 6-1 and I really believe they can repeat straight sets victory. They showed better tennis against stronger pairs and I was expecting odds around 1,6 on them. GL

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Quentin Halys to beat Mischa Zverev at 1.66 with bet365

I’m focused in the AO but taking a look at the other tournaments I liked this one. Halys won this tournament in 2018. He won his 3 matches of the qualification for the AO in straight sets (Santillan, Lee Duck-hee and Milojevic). He lost in the first round against Krajinovic but he could have won that match (6-7, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 5-7). Mischa Zverev has been a mess for a long time so I think there is value on the local player. The only concern I have for this match is that Mischa has already played 2 matches here against Brancaccio (6-1, 4-6, 6-3) and Moriya (6-2, 7-6) and this will be the first match played here for Halys after Janowicz retired in his first round match.

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I didn't see today's semi yet, but, from what I saw in Djokovic against Federer and in Thiem against Nadal, I feel that Thiem has a real chance. Djokovic was returning well against Raonic and Federer, but his baseline game was lacking, while Thiem's is spot on imo. The one additional day off shouldn't be too significant, Thiem is as fit as ever, so I think that we are in for a good contest that isn't going to finish 3-0 Novak, that would surprise me a lot. At the current odds, I think Thiem has to be the matchline pick value-wise.

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First of all I would like to thank you guys for great input throughout the tournament. I wish you keep it up and we can appreciate it weekly basis. 

 

As for the finals I would like to give my little opinion.

 

I think Novak's mental strength is unparalleled and in semis he was not at his best because of Fed's injury he wasn't focused enough but get the job done in the end. I love Dom's game and he is improved mentally but still he is not there. He choked in the 4th set against Nadal but recovered. Against Sasha's passive game he struggled more than I expected. I think we will see the highest level Novak here and I don't think Dom can handle it fully. I expect 3-1 or 3-0 here. Remember Novak is the greatest player statistically in Rod Laver Arena. 

 

As for Ladies I don't like Kenin's game because it's not pretty to my eyes :) But I didn't like Mugu's game against Pavs so I'm passing this one.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

First of all I would like to thank you guys for great input throughout the tournament. I wish you keep it up and we can appreciate it weekly basis. 

 

As for the finals I would like to give my little opinion.

 

I think Novak's mental strength is unparalleled and in semis he was not at his best because of Fed's injury he wasn't focused enough but get the job done in the end. I love Dom's game and he is improved mentally but still he is not there. He choked in the 4th set against Nadal but recovered. Against Sasha's passive game he struggled more than I expected. I think we will see the highest level Novak here and I don't think Dom can handle it fully. I expect 3-1 or 3-0 here. Remember Novak is the greatest player statistically in Rod Laver Arena. 

 

As for Ladies I don't like Kenin's game because it's not pretty to my eyes :) But I didn't like Mugu's game against Pavs so I'm passing this one.

 

 

I'm agree. I also think this will be a 3-0 or 3-1 for the Djoker. Schwartzman, Raonic and Federer all in straight sets. I know Thiem is an extraordinary athlete but how many hours more has spent Thiem on court? Like 5 or 6...? Djokovic looks impressive and he even has improved his serve! (anyone else has noticed that..?). As you said im expecting a 3-0 or 3-1 for Novak. Too many UE against Sascha when the german was simply pushing balls over the net... 

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Djokovic vs Thiem

On the whole I feel that it has really been a superb tournament considering the dramatic build up to the final. An unprecedented sequence of events that just could not have worked out better.

It has to be noted that before the appearance of Tsitsipas and Medvedev, Thiem and Zverev have always been the bonafied heirs of the number 1 & 2 positions in men’s tennis and thanks in part to Zverev that he somehow was able to rediscover his game to play his part in the build up to What can only feel as the crowning of the new prince. And why would there be any reason to think differently?

Thiem was arguably on form the best player of last year as he finished the season with a bang and has just seamlessly continued from where he left off. In the semi-finals, with Thiem and Zverev at 9/2 and 17/2 respectively, I advised my students on one of the tennis online forums to snap up those prices of whichever of the two guys they preferred as I had a gut feeling that this first tournament of the new decade had the propensity to give birth to something really special. Form or no form, I feel there should only be one option for any punter betwise. The mentality should really be that in most cases we always end up losing anyway and taking Thiem here is a justifiable mistake if it turns out that way. 2020? You just cannot afford to put new wine in old skins.

Thiem is also a confident strong, determined and fearless who has bested Djokovic in 3 of their last 4 meetings. There is no reason not to win no4 despite playing more hours on court. This is a man who is drastically raise the bar on the tennis front this year. Interestingly enough when Djokovic finished his semi-final against Federer he was 1/6 awaiting the winner of Thiem/Zverev. He would have stayed that way had Zverev won. He is now 2/9 against Thiem. I have always been an advocate of positive price moves speaking ahead of form. This should really be a thriller with only one expected outcome. Welcome to the new tennis era.

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However, every match is unique. Tennis and sports are not mathematics. Me too I fancy Thiem to lift the trophy, but....no chance to place money on this desire.

Djokovic is a monster. Impossible to go against him in terms of money. 

Good luck to Thiem,  

And Good luck to Kenin. Here yes, I will place money on Kenin to lift the trophy, because there is no woman monster out there. 

I never trust Muguruza, and at the same time I never trust any WTA material.

50/50 in my eyes the WTA final, I go with the strong and impressive Kenin at higher price. 

See you with results!

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On 1/30/2020 at 8:50 AM, bet4fun said:

what is the difference between playing in playoffs and regular games.. same is the difference between playing in a final for the first time against one who knows how to win those. Garbine is hot favorite to win this final.

 

As I said the smartest decision was betting some money on Kenin to secure benefits... As soon I saw Kenin saving 3 consecutive BP in the fifth game of the third set with some brutal shots I knew she will win the match. Unbelievable how Kenin has played in this tournament.

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On 1/31/2020 at 10:20 PM, liquidglass said:

Djokovic vs Thiem

On the whole I feel that it has really been a superb tournament considering the dramatic build up to the final. An unprecedented sequence of events that just could not have worked out better.

It has to be noted that before the appearance of Tsitsipas and Medvedev, Thiem and Zverev have always been the bonafied heirs of the number 1 & 2 positions in men’s tennis and thanks in part to Zverev that he somehow was able to rediscover his game to play his part in the build up to What can only feel as the crowning of the new prince. And why would there be any reason to think differently?

Thiem was arguably on form the best player of last year as he finished the season with a bang and has just seamlessly continued from where he left off. In the semi-finals, with Thiem and Zverev at 9/2 and 17/2 respectively, I advised my students on one of the tennis online forums to snap up those prices of whichever of the two guys they preferred as I had a gut feeling that this first tournament of the new decade had the propensity to give birth to something really special. Form or no form, I feel there should only be one option for any punter betwise. The mentality should really be that in most cases we always end up losing anyway and taking Thiem here is a justifiable mistake if it turns out that way. 2020? You just cannot afford to put new wine in old skins.

Thiem is also a confident strong, determined and fearless who has bested Djokovic in 3 of their last 4 meetings. There is no reason not to win no4 despite playing more hours on court. This is a man who is drastically raise the bar on the tennis front this year. Interestingly enough when Djokovic finished his semi-final against Federer he was 1/6 awaiting the winner of Thiem/Zverev. He would have stayed that way had Zverev won. He is now 2/9 against Thiem. I have always been an advocate of positive price moves speaking ahead of form. This should really be a thriller with only one expected outcome. Welcome to the new tennis era.

I think it is going to be a great match with quite a few tie breaks. But with Djokovic just coming out on top in four sets

Djokovic to win 3-1 set betting 11/4

Three tie breaks in the match 10/1

Edited by owenclass
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20 hours ago, darko08 said:
 

As I said the smartest decision was betting some money on Kenin to secure benefits... As soon I saw Kenin saving 3 consecutive BP in the fifth game of the third set with some brutal shots I knew she will win the match. Unbelievable how Kenin has played in this tournament.

well done. i was busy the whole week and did not watch the match but saw the scores later on. Garbine messed up after winning the 1st set and i am afraid this was her last match to take the tally to 3

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Thiem to win the final against Djokovic @3.5 with betway

Seriously this is his best chance to win the grandslam. he is poor on grass and rafa isn't giving the french open to anyone. he has beaten djokovic in the season ending tournament and cannot see why he cannot do it again. he has to start strong however. Infact he has beaten him twice in back to back wins against him. has to take the match to 4th set

 

Edited by bet4fun
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