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Goffin - P.H. Herbert +7,5        2

Czech wrote somewhere that Goffin is one of the best no-big-weapons player on the tour and I agree with him to some extent. Goffin easily beat Chardy who I find a mediocre hard-court player while Herbert showed mental  strength and won the match vs Norrie being 1-2 down. Herbert reached the 3rd round of AO twice so one can`t say he doesn`t like playing there. Last year he beat Querrey, Chung (though he was recovering in a way) and lost tightly against Raonic. I`m hoping to see the same scenario tonight where Pierre-Hugues will use his chances and stay close till the end.

 

 

 

 

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This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air qua

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Shibahara/Aoyama at 1.64 with Marathonbet I repeat with Gauff/Mcnally. The first time these Japanese players played together was 6 months before in San Jose where they reach

WTA Australian Open S Hsieh / B Strycova - T Babos / K Mladenovic 2@1.81 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I thought I am done with AO, but this one is simply too good. Babos/Mladenovic are the best pair for

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Oh, wow. I've completely forgotten about that match @ivanhoe. I saw Norrie leading solidly and then I didn't check the result, he really must've messed up. Herbert can be a solid bet indeed, I'd expect him to get quite a few easy holds unless Goffin is spot on with his passing shots. Definitely a step up from Chardy, especially mentally.

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2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Oh, wow. I've completely forgotten about that match @ivanhoe. I saw Norrie leading solidly and then I didn't check the result, he really must've messed up. Herbert can be a solid bet indeed, I'd expect him to get quite a few easy holds unless Goffin is spot on with his passing shots. Definitely a step up from Chardy, especially mentally.

I`m hoping to see a similar scenario. I don`t usually like these big handicaps but in the end I`ve decided to take this one. We`ll see...Hoping for the best, expecting the worst.

Just to mention Vekic once again. After she broke up with "Stan the man" she is completely dedicated and focused on tennis. I mean, you can really see she is giving her maximum in every match. I think she`ll win vs Cornet but I don`t expect an easy match. I`m tempted to take an OVER in that match too.

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I've just joined this forum today and it is really interesting reading so thank you to all the contributers for their knowledge and insight. Hopefully I'll be also be able to share tips with all of you. Just in relation to the match between Goffin and Herbert I do think they are both playing well but I really think Goffin will be too good for Herbert. I like Herbert as a player and they are both very similar however Goffin is at the top of his game and ran Nadal ragged a few weeks ago. I like the look of Basilashvilli to get by Fiasco Verdasco today. While the odds aren't that generous at 2.30 I think he'll see this as a great opportunity to get into the next round. Verdasco once he gets frustrated which he certainly will at some point in this match is a calamity waiting to happen. Anyway best of luck to all of you having a bet tonight. 

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Last year i wrote few Times that Światek is not materiał for wining against top 20 or top30 yet... But here against mature Suarez Navarro for me she have enough quality to win this match. If Iga play on the same level as in 1st round she should win. 

1.60 in my local is last moment. Lower than 1.6 Will not be value. 

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@Teodore Even at 1.50 still has value. This is her last season and 2019 has been a very bad year for her (injuries, bad results). She retired from the US Open for some back problems and then she announced in December that 2020 will be her last season because she had other priorities. I did not see her match against Sabalenka (her first win since August) but for what i read Sabalenka did not play a good match (UE mode: ON😂). 

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By one game again :sad.

Marton Fucsovics to beat Tommy Paul at 1.61 with Pinnacle

I'm on a bad connection at the moment and I don't know when this is going to change, but I definitely want to take this for tomorrow. Fucsovics has definitely been the more impressive player of the two so far for me and he has the right weapons for dealing with Paul, who is like Shapovalov in some respects.

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WTA Australian Open:
Alison Riske - Julia Goerges 1@2.01 pinnacle /flat 10u/


I wrote about Riske many times in last months, and also here at AO, no reason to repeat it. I can only add, that with Zhu she played much better than with Wang. She wasnt doing any mistakes and played her classic annoying tennis.

Goerges last matches didnt impress me at all. She is playing well till she gets under pressure and than she is always doing easy mistakes. She did it with Bencic in Adeleide and with Wozniacki in Auckland. Here she won vs poor Kuzmova and yesterday 7-5 in third over Martic, but Petra in current form is nowhere near Alison.

I really do not get current odds. Goerges hates players like Riske, she will have to play lot of long rallies, lot of low balls and thats exactly what she cant stand. I have Riske as almost 65% fav, so would give her 1,70 max here. Best value in 3rd roud for me. GL

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Hi,

I am just wondering that I missed something or there some new hidden info about Schwartzman-Lajovic game? Why Lajovic is so underrated? He is in very good form, and last year Argentinian won here against Lajo very hard game just 3:2?? Is it something about Lajovic personality? Would be thankful for any thoughts!

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Camila Giorgi to beat Angelique Kerber at 2.62 with bet365

2018 was the year of Giorgi, won her second title in Austria, reached QF at Wimbledon and 3rd round at French Open (which is a good achievement for her, because of the fact that she is not a clay player, she hasn’t got any finals at clay tournaments). 2019 was not as good as 2018 and injury problems stopped her from a better performance throughout the year, however she managed to reach 2 finals in USA ( at Citi Open and Bronx Open). 

Giorgi starts very well at AO with two clean wins, one of which against Kuznetsova who even today is very dangerous player.

Kerber right now is not showing her best game so I think the aggressive style of Giorgi will make the match very tough for the German. I don’t think that Kerber is as favourite as the odds shows.

Edited by teodorppv
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This is almost becoming a competition to forget for me betting wise....the odds are soo sharp forcing me to take handicaps and get burnt.

I've concluded that the "aura" of Grand slams and the sheer insane fitness, strength and endurance (playing 4 or 5 sets regularly) required,makes it very difficult to profitably predict results.

Edited by Valentine
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@Valentine It's general consensus, the bigger the tournament, more money is in the market and more info available, which means more accurate odds, so it's harder to find any kind of edge. It's much easier to find your edge in the smaller tournaments.

Also, if you want to predict results, buy a crystal bowl 😉 😄 You should be focusing on finding value (odds where you think the bookie/market do not have it right) instead of predicting results. Sounds similar, but it's completely different.  

Edited by Jves
just added sum stuff
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Rest of my bets for the 3rd round:

Bencic - Kontaveit: Bencic - 1.70 Sportingbet (min. 1.65)
Vekic - Swiatek: Swiatek - 2.39 Marathonbet (min. 2.30)
Putintseva - Halep: Halep - 1.36 (min. 1.34)
Svitolina - Muguruza: Svitolina - 1.52 (min. 1.45)
Giorgi - Kerber: Giorgi - 2.62 (min. 2.55) 

I know you would love to have a reasoning, but most of my bets are based on the price I think it should be based on the model and then comparing to the odds available. To sum it it up, all of those odds above are too high in my opinion and should show a profit over the long run. Those min odds does not mean anything less is a bad bet with no value, it just gives enough big cushion in case things goes sideways. 

       
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13 hours ago, darko08 said:

@Teodore Even at 1.50 still has value. This is her last season and 2019 has been a very bad year for her (injuries, bad results). She retired from the US Open for some back problems and then she announced in December that 2020 will be her last season because she had other priorities. I did not see her match against Sabalenka (her first win since August) but for what i read Sabalenka did not play a good match (UE mode: ON😂). 

Certainly was on - nearly 60 unforced errors which is embarrassing. Without all those errors there was no way CSN was winning.

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3 hours ago, vuviks said:

Hi,

I am just wondering that I missed something or there some new hidden info about Schwartzman-Lajovic game? Why Lajovic is so underrated? He is in very good form, and last year Argentinian won here against Lajo very hard game just 3:2?? Is it something about Lajovic personality? Would be thankful for any thoughts!

It's probably the perception that he's a clay-courter - which he is - but he's had some good results on hard. I think there's some value in those odds.

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Iga Swiatek has improved many elements of her game, but I'm afraid her tactical arsenal is too poor to defeat brave Vekic.


I have read about Giorgi that she devotes too much time to high life social life which can certainly affect her game.

Kvitova suffers from asthma (now large air pollution in Australia) which can affect the game against undefeated in 17 matches Alexandrova; power player who also has positive results against lefthanders.

Expect 3 set matches in Zhang-Kenin (2.37) and Riske-Georges (2.25) odds from B365. Any torpedoing those picks opinion? :)

Edited by lelit
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Querrey - Sandgren over 40,5

40,5?! Yep, that`s a lot, but I expect at least one tie-break and I think there`s quite a big probability  both players will take a set. That should be enough to cross this line.

Schwartzman - Lajovic      1

Although I really like and appreciate Lajovic as a tennis player I sincerely doubt he can win this. Though there is definitely some value on Lajovic I believe  Schwartzman is far more dynamic and energetic player and if he takes the initiative and makes Lajovic run the Serb will have a lot of problems. A win for the Argentine in my opinion.

Kvitova  - Alexandrova   1

Risky bet. Kvitova is prone to weather conditions and I checked them. It shouldn`t be too hot which, in my opinion, should go in favour of the Czech player. Alexandrova is on the vicious run but I hope it stops here. Probably a 3 setter but in the end I see Petra as the winner. Low stakes of course.

Edited by ivanhoe
typing error
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Marton Fucsovics to beat Tommy Paul at 1.64 with Marathonbet

CzechPunter has already posted this. Tommy is physically a weak player and he should be tired for this one after his 6 matches played in Adelaide and his 2 matches here (including a 4 h 22 m match against Dimitrov). Fucsovics is playing really really well and he has only dropped a set in his two matches against dangerous players (especially Shapo of course). 

Roberto Bautista (-4.0 Games) to beat Marin Cilic at 1.83 with Marathonbet

Cilic had a horrible 2019 season. I expected him to have a tough match against Moutet but he destroyed him. After that I thought we was the right favorite against Paire but he almost lost that match. He was very vulnerable with his second serves. Bautista failed me and lost his first set against Mmoh. It was disappointing because after that set he played in a very high level and destroyed Mmoh in the following sets. He said after the match that the strong wind affected him. The last year Bautista won against Cilic by 3 sets to 2 but this handicap should have been covered (6-7, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4). This time Bautista is in better form than Cilic so I expect Bautista to win this.

Serena Williams vs Qiang Wang Under 19.5 Games at 1.72 with 888

Nothing much to say here. Serena has destroyed Potapova and Zidansek in her first 2 round here. The last time these 2 players faced each other was in the US Open and Serena won 6-1, 6-0…
 

Edited by darko08
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Simona Halep to beat Yulia Putintseva at 1.46 with Pinnacle

I guess I need to gain my confidence somewhere and this looks decent enough. Collins was having fitness issues before her match against Yulia and she was just outlasted by the feisty girl, but this should be a completely even footing matchup-wise with Halep being just better overall. The small blip against Dart is somewhat worrisome I guess, but she refocused quickly and got the job done, so, in the end, she should win this.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas (-3.5) to beat Milos Raonic || 1.89 @ OLYBET 

Don't know its good or bad that greek had extra day to rest or whatever he did, but i guess he should be prepared for this. This is typical game where you expect tie-break fest, fact that Milos is a ridiciulous server,  but i have some questions about his ability last long in big games. He can win a set,  but i think that Stefanos just to much for him. He is way smarter like a player,  he had a great year of 2019,  beating some top guys on big tournaments,  and i believe that he'll get though here. One break early on and it could go really messy for the canadian.  In case Tsitsipas loses in tie-break he, still got -4.5, that can be covered in smth like 6:3. Overall i cant see him losing here, for safe bet you just can pick him around 1.38! GL 👍 

Edited by fizrukas
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Dusan Lajovic to beat Diego Schwartzman || 3.2 @ OLYBET 

Not a fan of these high odds, that just keeps me telling "just pass" but i've got to say this is just strange.  Dusan is way higher than the odds suggests, maybe only the name of Diego Schwartzman controls this. But i decided with small stakes to go with it. Dusan proved that he is amongst the top guys thats why he is #27 and if he is having a good day he can beat anybody. Over 3.5 sets also looks pretty good,  that is around 1.55 but i am going for a win,  just small stakes,  dont want anyone to get involved and get KO! GL 👍 

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9 hours ago, fizrukas said:

Stefanos Tsitsipas (-3.5) to beat Milos Raonic || 1.89 @ OLYBET 

Don't know its good or bad that greek had extra day to rest or whatever he did, but i guess he should be prepared for this. This is typical game where you expect tie-break fest, fact that Milos is a ridiciulous server,  but i have some questions about his ability last long in big games. He can win a set,  but i think that Stefanos just to much for him. He is way smarter like a player,  he had a great year of 2019,  beating some top guys on big tournaments,  and i believe that he'll get though here. One break early on and it could go really messy for the canadian.  In case Tsitsipas loses in tie-break he, still got -4.5, that can be covered in smth like 6:3. Overall i cant see him losing here, for safe bet you just can pick him around 1.38! GL 👍 

I gree with you on this bet.

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