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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2020

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I do also realize that Cuevas is not a hardcourt player, but he did advance to the second round of this tournament three times including last year, and taking dimitrov to 4 close sets in the second round.. Simon has retired from his last match in 2019 with an injury in Paris.. I don't think he will like to retire much in Paris unless there is some serious problem.  in 2020 he lost his last match in straight sets vs Chardy.. we don't even know what Jeremy is doing in this moment. But he was beaten easily in the next round by Busta... Okay, so this is alot of speculation about a match that is not being bet on, but I believe its somewhat relevant.  So I really do not like that wager you listed for Simon -1.5 sets.. I've got Cuevas winning one set at the very minimum, and that leaves you no extra space to cover your bet. 😎

that should clear up any confusion you have @CzechPunter

also, I realize I've spelled Shenzen wrong about 10 times on this forum, but I am still confused how to spell it. 😃 

Edited by money44

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@darko08 hiya, discussion welcome ;) I completely agree he played well, one could say he was punching above his weight, I just cannot help it, but I am not able to take ATP Cup as an indication of anything as I would question player’s motivation (especially Felix) even though ranking points are available. I also don’t believe, that he can sustain a good performance level for a long time, well, to put it better, I don’t see him as a reliable player as he can be superb one week and awful the next one. I also cannot ignore 3:0 H2H in Edmund’s favour even though the last one was 2018. Most importantly, I consider 1.67 available at the time posted (or anything above 1.61) as a great price, however at current odds around 1.5, I would not bet.

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6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@money44 no no no, the reaction was to how crucial this part of the year is according to you. Sounds a bit too dramatic to me.

@DrO Probably a precaution, but he's always been too fragile for best-of-five in tough conditions.

sorry for the dramatization. I'll try to just post winning plays without it. 

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Probably a precaution, but he's always been too fragile for best-of-five in tough conditions

Got it!

The thing is..Djere is very bad on HC. Even on this slower HC. The other day I was reading an interview in Serbian Newspaper in which he said : I'm already thinking about defending points in Rio de Janeiro. It is clear that he is not with his head completely in Melbourne. I get the impression that Melbourne is just a stopover for him,a check-point of some kind and that he's here just to collect prize money..but now with this Nishioka's health/fatigue issues it's probably best to skip this one.

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Feliciano López vs Roberto Bautista Over 34.5 Games at 1.83 with Marathonbet

Edmund Kyle vs Dusan Lajovic Over 3.5 Sets at 1.61 with Marathonbet

Hubert Hurkacz vs Dennis Novak Over 3.5 Sets at 1.65 with Marathonbet

I think Feli is a little bit underrated here. Feli’s biggest problem is his physical condition but we all know that he still can compete against good players (especially in first rounds) so I think this won’t be an easy match for Bautista. Nothing much to say about the other 2 matches. I can’t imagine any of these players winning in straight sets. Good luck to everybody.

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Juvan +5,5 - Yastremska

Juvan is being touted as big talent of Slovenian tennis. She has had a nice run in the qualies and I believe she can make this match challenging enough for Yastremska. They are both 19 and it`s a fact that Yastremska has achieved more than Juvan up to now but I believe Kaja can keep this close enough.

McNally - Stosur +1,5 sets

I believe that Samantha, with support on her side, can take a set in this duel. McNally has been convincing in the qualies but I think she`ll have a bit tougher task tonight.

Lajovic - Edmund +38,5 games

As most of you here I don`t think we`ll have a winner in straight sets. Dusan is a fighter, never gives up and has, at least in my opinion, one of the better backhands on the tour. He`s had a good run on the ATP Cup though I think of it as some kind of confidence building and a way of getting to use to the conditions. Edmund reached AO semi-final in 2018 and that says a lot. 2019 was a bit disappointing  for him and he`ll certainly do his best to repeat 2018 result though he could have gotten an easier opponent in the 1st round.

 

Any ideas why Zidansek has risen to 1,60 ???

Edited by ivanhoe

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27 minutes ago, ivanhoe said:

Juvan +5,5 - Yastremska

Juvan is being touted as big talent of Slovenian tennis. She has had a nice run in the qualies and I believe she can make this match challenging enough for Yastremska. They are both 19 and it`s a fact that Yastremska has achieved more than Juvan up to now but I believe Kaja can keep this close enough.

McNally - Stosur +1,5 sets

I believe that Samantha, with support on her side, can take a set in this duel. McNally has been convincing in the qualies but I think she`ll have a bit tougher task tonight.

Lajovic - Edmund +38,5 games

As most of you here I don`t think we`ll have a winner in straight sets. Dusan is a fighter, never gives up and has, at least in my opinion, one of the better backhands on the tour. He`s had a good run on the ATP Cup though I think of it as some kind of confidence building and a way of getting to use to the conditions. Edmund reached AO semi-final in 2018 and that says a lot. 2019 was a bit disappointing  for him and he`ll certainly do his best to repeat 2018 result though he could have gotten an easier opponent in the 1st round.

 

Any ideas why Zidansek has risen to 1,60 ???

A lot of changes in the last hours. Alison Riske was paid under 1.50 and now is 1.65 (I'm tempted to bet for her now), Linette-Rus, Cilic-Moutet, Jabeur-Konta, Nishioka-Djere... Nothing to be worried about I guess

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2 hours ago, DrO said:

Got it!

The thing is..Djere is very bad on HC. Even on this slower HC. The other day I was reading an interview in Serbian Newspaper in which he said : I'm already thinking about defending points in Rio de Janeiro. It is clear that he is not with his head completely in Melbourne. I get the impression that Melbourne is just a stopover for him,a check-point of some kind and that he's here just to collect prize money..but now with this Nishioka's health/fatigue issues it's probably best to skip this one.

@DrO You said that you’ve read in the Serbian newspapers. Are you from that area?

Anyway, I disagree that Djere is already thinking of Rio and his ranking should show the differences in the class. Also taking in consideration Nishiokas health, Djere is my clear pick here. 

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Well, Australian Open underway at games interrupted by rain right on the day one. To see the good side of that, it will probably help with the quality of air. Here are my tips for today’s matches:

Swiatek - Babos: Swiatek to win, 1.82 @ Unibet, 888sport (I would go here as low as 1.7 min)

Vekic - Sharapova: Vekic to win, 1.72 @ 365 (again, 1.62 should still be good enough)

Davis - Fernandez: Davis to win, 1.4 @ 365, Marathonbet (I don’t particularly enjoy low odds, but here I would go even at 1.32)

Hurkacz - Novak: Hurkacz to win, 1.44 @ William Hill, 365 (1.36 min)

Not really bold bets ;) 

 

 

 

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Ok ;) So, I will take Vekic - Sharapova first. Here I think 1.72 is a gift and you can get these odds only because it’s Sharapova. Any other name with similar performances and Vekic would have been much lower.

Swiatek - Babos, here it looks like market being cautious towards Swiatek as we haven’t seen her playing for quite a while because of a foot injury. Considering it’s a hard court, Babos’ recent bad performance against top100 and her weak mentality, 1.82 seems good to me.

Not much to say to Lauren, I have her as a player, who is “reliable” and rarely suffers unexpected loss. 

Hurkacz is simply better player overall, playing tougher opponents, based on his good performance in Auckland I cannot see Novak being an obstacle for him. 

There are few more interesting matchups such as Konta - Jabeur, Cilic - Moutet, many times mentioned Cuevas - Simon, and a few others, but in general, I do not like the odds very much :) 

Edited by Jves
Typing error

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Cori Gauff (-3.5) to beat Sorana Cirstea at 1.91 with Pinnacle

Not sure why one should give all that much credit to Cirstea, Strycova has been whining ever since the season started as far as I know and that's the big issue with her. Now, Cirstea is going to meet a player that can easily out-muscle her from the back of the court and who probably has more mental strength even despite the big age gap. I'm going with Cori again.

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Hurkacz to beat Novak is 10/10 for me. I have noticed this player as huge hitter with impressive power and skills.

Gauff to beat Cirstea 10/10 no matter the odds. Gift from our father in heaven.

I also predict a very good run from Tsitsipas. To lift the trophy is not out of question. He is the only one from the young generation that he would beat anyone at any stage.

Good luck my friends! I wish a profitable season to everybody! 

 

 

 

Edited by delfino

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Polmans - Kukushkin. Kukushkin to win at ~1.5 unibet.

 

Does anyone see the reasons why the odds on Kukushkin have risen from 1.3x to 1.5 ? He is a much more experienced player and hist 2019 run on hard courts is 51%. On the other side Polmans has played almost only challenger events.

If there are no health issues on his side, I think the odds on the Kazah guy should be much lower, so 1.5 looks great in this context.

Edited by vvararu

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27 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Polmans - Kukushkin. Kukushkin to win at ~1.5 unibet.

 

Does anyone see the reasons why the odds on Kukushkin have risen from 1.3x to 1.5 ? He is a much more experienced player and hist 2019 run on hard courts is 51%. On the other side Polmans has played almost only challenger events.

If there are no health issues on his side, I think the odds on the Kazah guy should be much lower, so 1.5 looks great in this context.

I totally agree there, 1.5 on Kukuskhin seems a good price, he will probably bore him to death with his dillydally tennis :) 

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On 1/18/2020 at 3:58 PM, TheMan said:

New to this Forum

Im a pro tipster

Aussie Open will occur as follows:

Mens Seni will be nadal vs medvedev

Mens Semi will be Novak vs denis shapovalov

The big upset will be first round defeat of halep to the American brady

Ugo Humbert will also win first round, but later Federer will beat him then deniis beats federer

gauff isn't yet due to win her maiden slam cos youngest will always remain with maria, but give it a few years

Best to bet on "quarter bet" accumulators with dennis, brady and either Svitolina/pliskov a( the latter two will compete for semi place)

I just cannot help it, but I need to react.
Being a pro-tipster does not mean you need to be able to predict how will the tournament finish. Being a pro tipster, you should know, (as you said you are) means to have a long-term ability to find a “good” price, a value price, a price, where you think the chance of X happening is bigger than the odds on offer and market got it wrong. Calling Halep possible loss a big upset seems to me a bit over the top, when market thinks there is roughly 33% chance of it. I call a big upset Shapovalov’s loss 3:1, mainly a big upset for you assuming you back your tips.
 

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4 hours ago, vvararu said:

Polmans - Kukushkin. Kukushkin to win at ~1.5 unibet.

 

Does anyone see the reasons why the odds on Kukushkin have risen from 1.3x to 1.5 ? He is a much more experienced player and hist 2019 run on hard courts is 51%. On the other side Polmans has played almost only challenger events.

If there are no health issues on his side, I think the odds on the Kazah guy should be much lower, so 1.5 looks great in this context.

My guess for the drift would be that Kukushkin is so inconsistent in his results. You could make a case that the opening line was based on the ability of both players, and then slowly as the market started to factor in Kukushkin's inconsistency the price on him rose. All hypothetical of course, but plausible I'd say.

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C.C. Bellis - T. Maria   1

I wrote about Bellis before. I like her style and shots - everything she does on the court looks simple and easy. She had been injured and she played only four matches in 2019 and her fitness might be questionable but I believe she posses more than enough quality to beat experienced German. Her motivation shouldn`t be be an issue here. I won`t be surprised if she takes this in straight sets.

Duckworth - Bedene  2

I believe Slovenian will finally make a breakthrough and advance to the 2nd round of AO. He has the skills and experience to do this. Duckworth is a fighter that never gives up and can be unpredictable when playing at home but I simply think Bedene is a better player will prevail in the end.

Hercog - Peterson 2

I know Peterson has had some fitness issues lately but I still think she deserves my support. She likes playing on hard while Hercog doesn`t - hard court has never been her cup of tea. I watched her a couple of times and, at least in my opinion, she didn`t play well. I`m not saying it will be easy but  Rebecca should advance to the next round. Low stakes though.

 

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12 hours ago, vvararu said:

Polmans - Kukushkin. Kukushkin to win at ~1.5 unibet.

 

Does anyone see the reasons why the odds on Kukushkin have risen from 1.3x to 1.5 ? He is a much more experienced player and hist 2019 run on hard courts is 51%. On the other side Polmans has played almost only challenger events.

If there are no health issues on his side, I think the odds on the Kazah guy should be much lower, so 1.5 looks great in this context.

 

11 hours ago, Jves said:

I totally agree there, 1.5 on Kukuskhin seems a good price, he will probably bore him to death with his dillydally tennis :) 

Great job with Kukuskin. Keep going that way...

 

 

#NOT

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Hey guys. What do think of Halep and Kerber losing both their matches as they have not had much tennis and they have got some tough matches coming up in the next few hours 

Edited by owenclass

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