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Tennis Tips - January 3 - January 19


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Fantastic Win...Well done Sofia Kenin

I watched pieces of the match vs Kerber.. It looked more to me like Kerber was just playing bad.. I felt that Tomljanovic at similar odds has a better chance that Stosur.. Both home dogs.. good luck o

Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.48 with Pinnacle I don't remember seeing odds this low against Nadal for a very long time, but I'm going to break my rules and back them nonetheless. He's

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@CzechPunter well you were right on the money there.. I do think you're bets are a little bit passive because you didn't have a great run of picks. 

Whats interesting is what your pick will be of Pegula in the next round. I took Cornet live bet @ 6.75, and then i hear about the injury but bet is void anyways. Bouchard is undervalued again in her next match but Anisimova is proving to be phenomenal right now. So maybe it's big time danger there. I may take a look at it in play in case her level drops some. 

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Depends who gets to play against her and how. I do fear her being a bit afraid of the bigger names still, but her level is high at the moment and the conditions are clearly to her liking. In any case, she's bound to land the top 120 bet if she stays reasonably healthy, you need to have about 550 points at the end of the season for that and she already has 110.

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ohhh without a doubt she is landing in there somewhere when healthy.. She had some leg injuries last year dealing with but seems to have fought them off a bit.. Looked like a hamstring.. Americans have a mountain of underrated players. She is just one of many such as brady and Riske.. In my opinion Kvitova is playing well from what it is possible brady goes for her backhand and finds a way to surprise again.. Probably not something i feel comfortable betting but in play eye test maybe. 

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I took Sugita vs Klizan in play @ -140, and then hedged the bet on Klizan 4.4 just now. Klizan really is playing terrible on serve mainly. Just not Tour level quality.. I took this with the expectation that I was going to follow up a bet on a much better serving left handed Pliskova in top form.. These are weird superstitions.. but I found if I don't pay attention to them a little bit .. soon I'm losing massive bets shortly afterward.. I don't think its a great system.. but I have to play it for now.. 

Also I'm watching Collins-Keys match.. Initially I was feeling Collins to win but I wanted to see her form in play because keys is dangerous and matches her power if not exceeds it. Turns out Collins doesn't look quite as fit this match, and the rankings should tell the tale in this match as Keys seems to be in prime form. :ok

 

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I have to admit .. I'm surprised to see Pegula price so high.. I was expecting something like 3.2 at the highest ... looks like the books opened @ 3.85.. pretty disrespectful to how well she's been playing but on name quality alone .. wozniacki demands respect.. doesn't mean she's going to win .. i may place an insurance stake on pegula to back up one of my bets , but don't think the line is available yet for me. 

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On 1/3/2020 at 8:04 PM, Striker said:

Think the next player on the WTA to breakthrough for a Grand Slam win will be Sofia Kenin

She won 3 times last year, and has only just turned 21

 

Kicks her Australian campaign off in Brisbane next week and I'm already on at 25's [Currently 20-1]

Disappointing after a good opening win to see her tamely fold against Osaka, especially after winning an epic first set

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  • CzechPunter changed the title to Tennis Tips - January 3 - January 19

Huh, there aren't really all that many big odds to sink one's teeth into in the first round next week either, so I'm contemplating skipping a day or two for the other matches and AO qualifiers. Ruud against Humbert is the one pick that I quite like at the moment, an interesting price unless Ruud is deflated after the high-adrenaline ATP Cup. Zuk could be a decent favorite to back as well, but the odds are kinda crappy. Logically, Bangkok could be a great ground for upsets, but where exactly? Sets for Congcar and Samrej? I don't really know a whole lot about those players, though I know that Karatsev is a very bad favourite.

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Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.48 with Pinnacle

I don't remember seeing odds this low against Nadal for a very long time, but I'm going to break my rules and back them nonetheless. He's struggled against worse players this week already, he's had quite a few long battles as well, and the main issue is that Djokovic is going to be doubly motivated, since it's very likely that Spain are going to take the first match. He lost quite badly against Nadal when the two last met and this is a great opportunity for him to put some pressure on his rival when he's not at his best.

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Alright, so Djokovic delivered there. I checked the matches again and I'm going to go with my previous suggestion of Casper Ruud to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.90 with PinnacleBoth guys are tremendously talented, with Ruud impressing at the ATP Cup, where he beat Isner and Fognini before seriously troubling the in-form Medvedev. If he continues that form, he should be a bigger favorite here, somewhere around the 1.70 mark.

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nice pick on djokovic there @CzechPunter. I probably would have taken nadal or atleast looked like value to me.. There is some dogs gonna hit tomorrow for sure.. Its something in the air right now.. 

Firstly Caroline Garcia does not look in good form right now .. so that should be noted as she takes on home player I don't know much about nor do I trust betting on Lizette Cabrera. 

Flipkens played fine from what i saw and seems to be in shape.. Outclassed by Bouchard in Auckland.. It happens.. but she has had good results in Hobart before. 

Priscilla Hon is a capable tennis player as far I'm concerned, and I don't believe Goerges will be motivated for this tournament.. Also her loss to Wozniacki was a sign of maybe not being fully fit. So I defnitiely like the value on home player Priscilla if it comes down to a decision soon. But, this match is not until monday.. Its really a borderline play because you're betting on Goerges laying an egg.

And I guess that brings us to Golubic and Babos having a chance which was my first inclination.. I feel the chances of 1/2 girls are winning is very possible... Therefore creating a 50% ROI opportunity.. I'll need to dig a bit deeper on these matches or hear some more opinions soon. 

Stosur has also had results here in 2014 semifinals, and looked to be in shape in brisbane having some decent matches.. I don't see much on the mens side in terms of value but there is some favorites that I think will win such as Feliciano Lopez and couple others... Hope we can get some back and forth going in here before the matches start. 

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Okay Everyone .. I think I have narrowed down a bet to consider, and I'd like your opinions.. 

It seems as though Sam Stosur came into 2020 season fit and hitting the ball quite well.. Yes its true she lost to Madison Keys in straight sets Brisbane, but I don't think thats a terrible loss because at that exact time Keys was really in form, and even played a tough final as well several days later when her form probably dipped a little bit.. 

Yes, this is blacklisted player for me to bet. So, this is the reason I'm asking for your advice, but in this exact moment I believe that Kudermetova could be far less challenging opponent than a in form Keys to have to deal with.. So there appears to be quite a bit of value on Sam with 2/1 odds at home.. She's donating funds on all her aces hit to the fire relief... So, plan on her slamming a few down but that's not really my point.. Kudmermetova played in this tournament once before and was beaten in qualies straight sets 2018... She has improved alot since then I'm sure, but last year she is dealing with tape all over her shoulder many matches, and it's hard to believe full effort in this one before grand slam and start of the season. Stosur on the other hand I think will be very motivated to play well in Australia for her country and people.. Just some quick thoughts there... So this match scheduled to start in about 3 hours... Lets get into it or anything else. 

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@freeyourself84 hello .. You seem to know something about tennis, and you are new contributor here.. I would like to see you pick a tennis player to win in the upcoming matches.. There is quite a few to choose from.. It's okay if you lose .. But we need to see what your thinking because it might potentially help, and we can decide if we want to use your information or not.. Thanks. 

Most of the people that come to this forum are not toxic internet people .. Hopefully we can keep it that way for the whole year as unlikely as that might be. 

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@CzechPunter Don't get discouraged... I didn't see you talking about Ruud in earlier post or I might have warned you because you lost on him last time.. It's beginning rocky part of the season, but keep you confidence because I think we might turn a massive profit this year .. Lets right the ship quickly here, and don't be too hard on yourself for the last match.. It happens. 

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I'm waiting to make sure that Yastremska takes care of her business against Babos before I bet on Stosur.. Don't want to betting on the wrong underdog this time.. Stosur/Kudermetova true odds for me are around 50/50 for each side for me... Therefore its considerable value.  These courts maybe are pretty fast right now.. Could be a serving contest. 

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Jack Draper to beat Denis Istomin at 1.98 with Pinnacle

If anyone knows something about Istomin's off-season, please let me know, but I think he might be considering quitting after that disastrous 2019 that saw him racking up losses against many players that he would simply be crushing in previous years. Jack Draper, on the other hand, is hungry and on an upwards curve. What I've learned over the years is that these youngsters often work extremely hard in the off-season and then convert that into something tangible in these early tournaments, while the veterans tend to take it more slowly. Draper has started his season with a 2-0 win over a guy that Istomin actually lost to in his last 2019 match, so chances are that there's some value in backing the youngster, however inconsistent he may be.

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