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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 3 - January 19

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If anyone else is watching the Shengzen tournament.. I saw some of the Zheng - Bondarenko match, and Pliskova - Sabalenka just now.. I really don't know about the form of these women but I usually like to fade Sabalenka when possible.. Missed the chance.. 

I can tell you that Bondarenko is in form and played very well. Pliskova was serving huge, and playing very well also confidently. So No. 1 and 2 seeds are cooked in China. More top players got knocked off in the last 36 hours than i can ever remember starting a year.. Pliskova would be pick to win because they face each other in the QF now.  

I am guessing the betting line will be -185 vs Pliskova, and I think thats an accurate line also.. Lets see what they come up with. 

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Rather unfortunate with Ruud, he had a break in the second set and then a 4-2 lead in the tie-break. Was definitely worth a shot at the odds, now let's see if Pavs can make me happy. Can't see anything for tomorrow yet, but that might change.

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@CzechPunter good luck on your pavs bet. I'm trying to watch the match but having trouble with my streams right now. I guess Pinnacle tailing my lines..Kristyna Pliskova opened up at -182. 

You'll probably find something soon.. I'm curious what u come up with because I don't like the options tomorrow also.

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Who's your guys pick on the Verdasco Krajinovic match ? @South_African_Punter Maybe you have some pick on this one also.. the line is nearly even.. I guess its a hard match to decide.. Verdasco was hitting the ball well yesterday.. I can verify that but he wasn't serving well.. That could improve in his next match.. Krajinovic does have a serving advantage but I think Fernando will be able to outhit him in Qatar.. I'm overthinking this bet waayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much, and haven't done anything on it yet. 

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5 minutes ago, money44 said:

Who's your guys pick on the Verdasco Krajinovic match ? @South_African_Punter Maybe you have some pick on this one also.. the line is nearly even.. I guess its a hard match to decide.. Verdasco was hitting the ball well yesterday.. I can verify that but he wasn't serving well.. That could improve in his next match.. Krajinovic does have a serving advantage but I think Fernando will be able to outhit him in Qatar.. I'm overthinking this bet waayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much, and haven't done anything on it yet. 

Not sure. Wasn't able to watch Verdasco or Krajinovic yesterday.

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ok thanks guys .. yeah there was a few picks that could have landed... alot of the top players, and I guess I'm meaning Svitolina and Bencic got overworked last year.. It could have been predictable them losing early on.. Sabalenka just always loses normally.. But Pliskova did really play well. 

 

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7 hours ago, money44 said:

Who's your guys pick on the Verdasco Krajinovic match ? @South_African_Punter Maybe you have some pick on this one also.. the line is nearly even.. I guess its a hard match to decide.. Verdasco was hitting the ball well yesterday.. I can verify that but he wasn't serving well.. That could improve in his next match.. Krajinovic does have a serving advantage but I think Fernando will be able to outhit him in Qatar.. I'm overthinking this bet waayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much, and haven't done anything on it yet. 

I`ll be backing Krajinovic here. My pick is based on motivation. Filip is 27 and he HAS NEVER won an ATP tournament before. I see this tournament as an ideal chance for him to raise the trophy. When you have Verdasco on the other side of the net you know it`s not going to be easy but when I compare these two I see  Krajinovic who`s 9 years younger and a very good player in my opinion and Verdasco who`s full of experience but is also in some kind of final stage of his career.

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Right, I'm going to pull the trigger on Samantha Stosur to beat Madison Keys at 4.33 with Pinnacle. Stosur was pretty solid against Kerber and the odds are just ridiculous given that she's 3-0 against Keys, having beaten her as recently as last year in Miami. If it loses and I go -40pts early in the season, so be it, but I have a strong feeling that she shouldn't be above the 3.25 mark considering everything. The scoreline Keys got against Bouzkova flatters her too much and this match-up will be all about nerves anyway, both ladies tend to be either really good or really bad, with Keys having a much higher ability ceiling but much lower consistency. Some players are also complaining about the Brisbane conditions a bit, don't know if Keys is among them, but she's obviously more likely to hate them than Stosur. The odds suggest a 23.1% chance, I disagree, I would say about 35%, but remember that even that means that this bet is going to come in only about one in three times on average (and that's if I'm right).

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I watched pieces of the match vs Kerber.. It looked more to me like Kerber was just playing bad.. I felt that Tomljanovic at similar odds has a better chance that Stosur.. Both home dogs.. good luck on your bet tho.  So if I rated Stosur's chance at 20% to win , and Tomljanovic at maybe 25% .. something like that. 

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I nearly bet on Cornet with odds 6.75.. I just smelled something funny that she's going to lose .. looked like a ton of value.. I'm praying she will lose now lol ..Could have already covered the bet easily after she took the second set.. 

Collins - Putintseva is shaping up in the next hour with Bouchard match.. In my opinion Collins or Bouchard is going to win.. I think Collins is much more likely but we'll see soon. 

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Fernando Verdasco to beat Filip Krajinovic with odds 2.4 @ William Hill

_Insurance bet covers above action_ Laslo Djere to beat Herbert @ 3.2. the bet is slightly half of the prime target.. Covers all potential loss.

In case you guys noticed underdogs are getting picked off like like cherries from a tree right now in tennis.. I actually wanted to bet Bouchard, Cornet, and now Collins is winning also. Didn't bet any of these because I'm trying new strategy of being very careful with my money management.. Its a bit unfortuante but I did place a large stake on NBA to win some profit.. So now I have completed 4 bets in a row. 

Its no secret that Verdasco lives in Qatar, and he plays well in this tournament.. I know what I saw from him last match, and he was moving well in great condition, and punishing the ball in form.. Backhand was great also.. I've seen him play this tournament before, and he has improved in his second match slightly, and I also have a hunch that his service will improve as well.. This is a high risk bet, and I suggest amounting a total stake you want to risk here, and subtracting the insurance bet on Djere for less risk. 

These courts play quite slow, and Djere is a clay courter.. He's been in Qatar for atleast 9-10 days I think practicing on these courts, and winning last match as a surprise.. I'm a fan of his game, and since the courts might neutralize Herberts serving advantage.. Then its worth a quick look. bol all :ok

Edited by money44
typo

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I'll be taking a day off, but I'm strongly considering Pegula against Cornet if the odds are right, she was serving shockingly well in the previous match and with no signs of nerves. Can't see her losing the pre-season outright if she continues in the same vein!

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If you're looking for a big serving woman to bet I would take place Kristyna instead.. probably zidansek allowed for pegula to shine.. cornet played really well..  Seems like a gamble to me but good luck either way I hate to talk you out of a winning bet

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yeah thats true, but she must have done something in the offseason.. Because she's playing at an improved level especially on serve.. which is enormous.. She was serving bigger than Karolina in the match i watched. Sabalenka was shaking her head after getting aced over and over. I can't find the stats on it , but i saw about half the match and witnessed atleast 6 aces myself that were bombs.. Sabalenka wasn't even within reach of the ball. 

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I hedged out on the Verdasco match 30 minutes ago.. I've been burnt by him too many times.. so I'll take profit on either side now.. took half stake on Krajinovic @ odds +4.4 and 5.75. Looks like Djere might be a live dog right now down a set also but I can't get a stream on the match. 

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Pliskova in the middle of a Bondarenko Rout playing the same way she did last match. Some new and improved level this year. Going to be straight set win, and even Bondarenko is playing decent. Pliskova is a major threat to win the tournament.. I can only see Mertens standing in her way. 

Edited by money44

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Now I'm watching the Kenin - Osaka match .. I don't have live betting available to me right now so more just for research purposes.. I'm picking Osaka to come from down a set and beat Kenin 2-1. I didn't see that Mertens actually lost also. 

Edited by money44

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Quite a crazy week, hard to get a read on things. What I know is that Tsonga was poor yesterday, so don't overrate Kecmanovic based on that, he was playing only reasonably well. Happy to see that Siegemund won, I really wasn't expecting that, went to bed after she lost the first set from a good position and thought that was it.

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Kristyna Pliskova to beat Elena Rybakina at 2.30 with Parions_Sport

It will be a 1st meeting between these 2 players. I expect a close encounter for my 1st tennis bet of the year.

Rybakina just eliminated Mertens (# 17) in 3 sets after having done the same with the Chinese favorite Zheng Saisai, thus confirming her fantastic 2019 season where she gained 150 places. For her part Pliskova just eliminated Bondarenko in 2 sets in just a little over 1 hour of play after having eliminated her 1st 2 opponents in the same expeditious manner, including the formidable Sabalenka (# 11).

The Czech hit 8 aces in the 1st round, 15 in the 2nd and 16 in the last game. This gives hope for an even bigger service against the Kazakh, especially if the latter begins to feel the accumulated fatigue of 2/3 matches over 2 hours..

 I wish you all a happy new year 2020, may success and health be with you! :hope :ok

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