jayalexander Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Hi all, it's been quite some time since I've posted on the forum but I'm hoping that I can share a few winners using a simple method that I have been applying to Novice Handicap Chases and Hurdles. I noticed that many winners of these races were taking part in their first such race. They may have taken part in plain handicap chases/hurdles in the past, but not specifically a novice event. This filter can sometimes cut a big field in half and leave some tasty prices, from interesting yards. I may take a look at trainer records, plus a few other factors and tend to side with NH bred runners but that's basically it. I'll post up my selections and also provide a brief review of the day's action, along with a P/L. I welcome feedback and happy to answer any questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Hi Jay, welcome back mate Good luck with this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 Day 1 - 26th Dec 12:20 - Motashakel 7/1 bet365 12:30 - Imperial Nemesis 6/1 bet365 1:20 - Commanche Red 10/1 coral 1:40 - Love Lane 13/2 william hill 2:50 - Banana Joe 14/1 bet365 All selections will be 1pt win only, unless stated ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Hi Jay, welcome back mate Good luck with this Many thanks. I remember that it was yourself who gave me the advice of only backing NH bred runners in NH races BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Winner in the 1:20, at a great price considering he had an sp of 4/1. A non runner means four selections on the day. Sigurd, winner of the 12:30, and Bells of Peterboro, who won the 2:50, were taking part in their first novice handicap. 4pts staked 10pts returned A good start :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Day 2 - 27th Dec 3:25 - Ocean Cove 7/1 Paddy Power (won his one and only nv hcp hurdle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 5pts staked after day 2 10pts returned Day 3 - 27th Dec 3:25 - Bleu Et Noir 10/1 Bet365 3:35 - Commodore Barry 11/1 Betvictor - has already contested a nv hcp chase, but ran out, when leading. Stays on same mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 7pts staked after day 3 - Incorrect race time with the 3:25, it should have been 1:20. A race which was won by a horse taking part in its first such race. 10pts returned Day 4 - 28th Dec 12:25 - Grey Diamond 4/1 Bet365 2:00 - Duc De Grissay 9/2 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 8pts staked after day 4. Duc De Grissay was a NR. Day 5 - 29th Dec 1:50 - Du Destin 10/1 Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 9pts staked, 10pts returned. Day 6 - 31st Dec 12:25 - Briery Bunny 25/1 Bet365 (0.5pt ew) 2:25 - Rosmuc Relay 5/1 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 11pts staked, 10pts returned. Day 7 - 1st Jan 1:15 - As I See It 4/1 Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 12pts staked, 10pts returned. Day 8 - 3rd Jan 12:50 - Fully Booked 14/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 13pts staked, 10pts returned. Day 9 - 4th Jan 1:05 - Vango De Vaige 11/1 Paddypower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 14pts staked, 10pts returned Day 10 - 6th Jan 2:25 - El Scorpio 33/1 Betfred (5 places) 0.5pts ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 15pts staked, 10pts returned - winner of the race, Sign Of War (11/1), won in what was his first nv hcp chase. Such generous odds were not available when I posted last night. Day 11 - 7th Jan 1:45 - Granatic 25/1 Bet365 0.5pts ew 2:30 - Zizanour 11/1 Paddypower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Forgot to hit submit for the above and only just noticed ? The winners of the two races were taking part in their first nv hcp chase again. I would like to point out that I have had some good successes using this method but as with any approach, patience is key. One thing that I have found is that by focusing on these kind of races has stopped me placing wagers on straight handicaps and I have not even looked at a maiden for over a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 17pts staked, 10 returned. Day 12 - 9th Jan 1:10 - Lough Har 6/1 Coral 1:35 - Misdflight 18/1 Coral (4 places) 0.5pts ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 An abandonment and NR scuppered the plans to add two further winners, yesterday. Day 13 - 10th Jan 12:25 - Big Chief Benny 40/1 Bet365 0.5pts ew 12:50 - Robaddan 11/2 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Time constraints did not allow me to post for yesterday's nv hcp chase, which was won by a runner in his first such race. Naturally, I got it down to two possibilities, but went with the other one ? On the 10th, Big Chief Benny was a NR and Robaddan got beaten on the line as I was count my winnings! Thread is now on 18pts staked, 10 returned. 3:15 - Telson Barley 7/1 Bet365 4:10 - Cobolobo 6/1 Bet365 I'm off to Barcelona for a couple of days ?? yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Yet another NR and abandonment. Day 15 - 17th Jan 1:55 - Mr Jacaranda 5/1 Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 19pts staked, 10 returned. Day 16 - 21st Jan 3:45 - Get Wishing 14/1 Bet365 (race is also one of their feature 4/1 offers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Another abandonment yesterday and 4 out of 6 runners qualifying in a race today means NO BET. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 23rd Jan 2:45 Cosheston 10/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Now at 20pts staked, 10pts returned. 12:40 Shanroe Tic Tec 12/1 Ladbrokes There are also three other eligible races but each have too many possible qualifiers. The 3:35 is interesting; Sammylou won last years nv hcp hurdle here on his 2nd start in such a race after not completing his first and this will be his 2nd start in a nv hcp chase after a non completion last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) Didnt get the chance to post yesterday, although there were three eligible races. Cheltenham hosted one and from 3 possible qualifiers, two may have returned ew money; Imperial Aura (2nd @ 5/1) and Garo De Juilley (4th @ 40/1) I backed the latter but instore at Ladbrokes (3 places) - william hill were 5 places online There were two races with smaller fields at Uttoxeter that I did not look at, but upon checking results, potential qualifier Haul Us In (7/2) won the 3:05. Thread is now at 21pts staked, 10 returned. For sunday... 2:30 Dame Du Soir 9/4 Betvictor (only other qualifier is Theatre Legend) Edited January 26, 2020 by jayalexander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 22pts staked, 10 returned. 2:00 Fethard Flyer 33/1 Bet365 0.5pts ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 23pts staked, 10 returned. 3:15 Bonne Question 10/1 Bet365 3:25 Ibleo 8/1 william hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 WINNER!!! It wasn't to be a Venetia Williams double and I wouldn't have picked a runner with a 800+ day absence if it wasn't for this approach, but IMO Ibleo ran outstandingly, with only one minor fault and was available at 11/1 this morning. However, no cooking the books from me. Qualifying horses first and second in the 3:15, 25pts staked, 18 returned. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyflyer Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Nice priced winner ?? jayalexander 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 1:20 Beyondthestorm 9/4 skybet 2:00 Peace Approved 25/1 Bet365 0.5pts ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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