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jayalexander

NH novice handicaps

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Hi all, it's been quite some time since I've posted on the forum but I'm hoping that I can share a few winners using a simple method that I have been applying to Novice Handicap Chases and Hurdles.

I noticed that many winners of these races were taking part in their first such race. They may have taken part in plain handicap chases/hurdles in the past, but not specifically a novice event. This filter can sometimes cut a big field in half and leave some tasty prices, from interesting yards. I may take a look at trainer records, plus a few other factors and tend to side with NH bred runners but that's basically it.

I'll post up my selections and also provide a brief review of the day's action, along with a P/L.

I welcome feedback and happy to answer any questions.

 

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Winner in the 1:20, at a great price considering he had an sp of 4/1. A non runner means four selections on the day. Sigurd, winner of the 12:30, and Bells of Peterboro, who won the 2:50, were taking part in their first novice handicap.

4pts staked

10pts returned

A good start :)

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Forgot to hit submit for the above and only just noticed 😂

The winners of the two races were taking part in their first nv hcp chase again. I would like to point out that I have had some good successes using this method but as with any approach, patience is key. One thing that I have found is that by focusing on these kind of races has stopped me placing wagers on straight handicaps and I have not even looked at a maiden for over a year.

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Time constraints did not allow me to post for yesterday's nv hcp chase, which was won by a runner in his first such race. Naturally, I got it down to two possibilities, but went with the other one 🤣

On the 10th, Big Chief Benny was a NR and Robaddan got beaten on the line as I was count my winnings! Thread is now on 18pts staked, 10 returned.

3:15 - Telson Barley 7/1 Bet365

4:10 - Cobolobo 6/1 Bet365

I'm off to Barcelona for a couple of days 🇪🇸

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Now at 20pts staked, 10pts returned.

12:40 Shanroe Tic Tec 12/1 Ladbrokes

There are also three other eligible races but each have too many possible qualifiers. The 3:35 is interesting; Sammylou won last years nv hcp hurdle here on his 2nd start in such a race after not completing his first and this will be his 2nd start in a nv hcp chase after a non completion last time.

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Didnt get the chance to post yesterday, although there were three eligible races. Cheltenham hosted one and from 3 possible qualifiers, two may have returned ew money; Imperial Aura (2nd @ 5/1) and Garo De Juilley (4th @ 40/1) I backed the latter but instore at Ladbrokes (3 places) - william hill were 5 places online :wall

There were two races with smaller fields at Uttoxeter that I did not look at, but upon checking results, potential qualifier Haul Us In (7/2) won the 3:05.

Thread is now at 21pts staked, 10 returned.

For sunday... 2:30 Dame Du Soir 9/4 Betvictor (only other qualifier is Theatre Legend)

Edited by jayalexander

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WINNER!!! It wasn't to be a Venetia Williams double and I wouldn't have picked a runner with a 800+ day absence if it wasn't for this approach, but IMO Ibleo ran outstandingly, with only one minor fault and was available at 11/1 this morning. However, no cooking the books from me. Qualifying horses first and second in the 3:15,

25pts staked, 18 returned.

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