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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Thurs Dec 26th

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Very interesting that despite big races at Kempton the top jockeys are elsewhere, think it tells you the championship is very important despite what they might say.

Richard Johnson at Fontwell

1215 Early Days, 1245 I Like Him, 150 Sky Full Of Stars, 225 Dostal Phil, 300 The Tin Miner

Brian Hughes at Sedgefield

1150 Quids In, 1225 O'Hanrohan Bridge, 1255 Two Hoots, 130 Fingal d'Arthel, 205 Henrys Joy 240 Kingrullah, 315 Inisfree Spirit

 

:ok

 

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Samcro v Faugheen 

240 Limerick

Samcro is odds on and I can see why although he fell last time out, he was cruising at the time.
Faugheen won on his chase debut despite 1 horrendous mistake, he wont get away with that too many times.

 

 

 

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On 12/24/2019 at 4:26 PM, richard-westwood said:

255 leop

Callthebarman  was holding a narrow lead when falling at last....looks very well treated based on that I estimate around possibly 7lb well in so warrants an ew bet 

Callthebarman 5pts ew 13/2 skyb

Adding Ellie mac 5pts ew  to my bet ....looks to be only danger on ratings perspective ...never works out that way lol but I can try ....7/1 generally 

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On 12/24/2019 at 3:58 PM, richard-westwood said:

I'm  on the value bet hunt 

..lots.to dig through 

130 Kemp 

Envoye special 224 +2

Comanche red 222+1

2x5pt ew 12/1  And 16/1 boyles and 365

 

Computers nailed it today ....Comanche red wins by 10 lengths !!....That's another 80pts for win and 169 pts for double making 329pts so far ...with 2 races to come ....any more winners and some serious money 

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On 12/24/2019 at 4:34 PM, richard-westwood said:

140 wolv

Ghaith has been running well in defeat and this looks an easier race ...ew bet 

Ghaith 5pts ew 11/2 b365

Also 19x1pt win doubles on all the above 

Ghaith wins 6 lengths ....unbelievable.....that's 44pts win .....169pts again for another 2 doubles ....so far 542pts !!..one to come would ramp the doubles from 3 to 6 so talking 800 pts plus if last wins ...calltgebarman...haven't got Ellie mac in the doubles 

Edited by richard-westwood

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ghaith wins 6 lengths ....unbelievable.....that's 44pts win .....169pts again for another 2 doubles ....so far 542pts !!..one to come would ramp the doubles from 3 to 6 so talking 800 pts plus if last wins ...calltgebarman...haven't got Ellie mac in the doubles 

Well done Richard,, whatever tweaks you've done with your nags,seems to be paying off. I don't say qa lot but I'm always watching 👍 and reading 

All the best. 

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35 minutes ago, Point the way said:

Well done Richard,, whatever tweaks you've done with your nags,seems to be paying off. I don't say qa lot but I'm always watching 👍 and reading 

All the best. 

Thanks.....I love to read stuff myself on here especially the big races ....it's not easy to sort through the big races so I find the different perspectives fascinating .....gotta be honest the changes I've recently made have gobsmacked me ....every time a horse runs it's performance can be quantified by a number....trick is to teach the computer to take it's best guess at what that number is ......tricky when it's track ..dist ...weight ...speed  ....and other factors ....the change I made was rather than coming at it from my rating alone ...i made a completely diff discovery that gives you a rating for the horses performance .....unbelievably they weren't far out from each other every time I rated even though they were totally diff  so all I do is take the average of the 2 and the result is an incredibly accurate assessment of what the horse can do ...all I do is adjust it for today's race conditions and the rest is up to lady luck .......the breakthrough was finding that 2nd test ......the combination of the 2 gives you a foolproof assessment of what the horses "number " is .....doesnt matter what the race is ...how many runners ....flat ...jumps ....it will work on anything .....tbh I've been reading form for years and I can't believe I've never seen it before ....where we go now is anyone's guess .....watch this space I suppose ......but it honestly feels like I've been given the key to the safe ...I've just gotta work out how best to use it now 

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7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ghaith wins 6 lengths ....unbelievable.....that's 44pts win .....169pts again for another 2 doubles ....so far 542pts !!..one to come would ramp the doubles from 3 to 6 so talking 800 pts plus if last wins ...calltgebarman...haven't got Ellie mac in the doubles 

Thanks for the tips today followed singles and doubles, smallstakes but a hefty profit, thankyou 

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8 hours ago, Horseoats said:

Thanks for the tips today followed singles and doubles, smallstakes but a hefty profit, thankyou 

That's why I come on here ....I know people enjoy reading about the races from all diff sources so if i put my angle in people can make up their own minds ....also it drives me to be better ....I've improved so much since coming on the forum and yes sometimes you get your ass kicked but that's racing and also sometimes I can only narrow a 20 horse race to say 5 horses ...and I come on here and say Billy hills has rated and someone else might have rated and it's helped me get winners in the past because like I said ..coming at the problem from diff directions can only be a good thing ....stay lucky all....and get involved ....you might think your little bit doesn't matter but each piece is like a jigsaw puzzle ...put them together and you can see the big pic..

Edited by richard-westwood

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