King George 2 Horse Race?

[Rolemat]

First,just to wish all a Happy and Prosperous Christmas and New Year in punting and in general. Personally I am very disappointed with the field for the KG and feel that too many are running scared including Nicky Henderson.It grieves me to say this but if Altior is in good enough nick to run on Friday,he should be in the field?

We have been deprived of a fascinating showdown over an easy 3 miles with nothing to lose if he was beaten but plenty to have been gleaned from the outcome.So we are left with what we have and despite the media frenzy the outcome will be less informative than it could have been.Said previously Lostintranslation looks more of a Gold Cup horse and I think would beat Cyrname in that race and the media make this a two horse race as do the bookies.

So what to back? Well I do not rate Clan,it was a mess of a race last year,Footpad is not up to this at the trip imo and so I am going to suggest Thistlecrack at the prices,the only requirement is for Scu to ride him more positively than in the past and he should be bang in the mix despite his age.What do you guys think in terms of the best value?

[Rolemat]

Having analysed the make up and the relative merits of each horse in the race I am convinced that Thistlecrack can finish pretty close to the front if only Scu would be more positve than he has been in the past.The horse obviously still has an engine which operates at less than maximum revs to cruise around at this trip.It will take a very good one to get him off the bridle before 3 out or even two out.Cyrname will be going into new territory having probably made the running.

Lostintranslation will have travelled well to 3 out if the pace is generous (will it be if Cyrname makes the pace)? All and sundry e.g trainers and pundits are saying fast and furious,will it be given Cyrname has it to prove he stays,Lostintranslation will be lost if it is not and ditto Clan.

The only horse in the race who has proved he can cope with any scenario at this level is Thistlecrack and at 18/1 looks an ew bet to nothing for a small stake as an interest for those looking for value returns.On the day he is likely to be around 14s for 3 places with some firms and exceptional value in that respect.

 

[richard-westwood]

See ...im the opposite ...I think clan is the strongest .....is ready to run his best race now ....is on a par with cyrname pound for pound but crucially has done his best on course and dist and arguably will be a stronger horse this year so could pull a massive performance out when pushed now ....I think he's the value of the race 

[Rolemat]

Good you have a different view Richard,especially outside of the front two.The Racing Post have canvassed the so called experts i.e Jockeys,pundits and trainers.Most have cited Cyrname and Lostintranslation,fair enough but seems few have actually looked at it as a 6 horse race and value.I respect your summary more than those "experts",for several reasons,one being you do not jump on the ratings bandwagon like they have done.

My view is that Clan needs a stiff pace and I cannot see him getting it here? If Cyrname takes off in front will Cobden commit to making it a true test or will he try and ensure the horse will stay the trip? Imo and it will not happen,if Scudamore had the guts to send Thistlecrack to the front from the off he would have them all under pressure bar your one by 4 out and it would be between them?

[richard-westwood]

My opinion of lost in translation is he's a good horse but not very quick ....I think if cyrname and clan go at it quick he will be left behind struggling ....it will be interesting to see tactics ....you'd expect cyrname to hold back a little to see out the trip but if clan makes it a true test and forces the pace then it could shake him up.a bit and expose any weakness ....for me though he's 3x the price of cyrname but not 3x less a horse 

Edited December 23, 2019 by richard-westwood

[Rolemat]

Just can't see that happening Richard,Clan will be held up but if he was allowed to force it then it is a whole different scenario.Just cannot see PFN allowing it to happen,that said if STD did go to the front it could undo all the tacticts the rest have,only one horse who could cope with whatever happens,Thistlecrack?

[richard-westwood]

Just an exciting race ......personally I think age has caught up thistlecrack .....if he had shown more on prep run I'd have said yes but he will be carrying 10lb more in king George so with 6 runners he doesn't even make ew material to me ....personally I think it will be won or lost on tactics ...cyrname wants to front run so give him an easy lead and he's in his element so you want to push him ...make him make mistakes especially over the last 3 fences that's where the race will be won or lost ...would be nice to see them hit the last neck and neck and see who wants it more ....who would you put your money on then lol.....

[EviL ZippY]

Cyrname bosses it 

not really liking he prices tbh, but I reckon he wins 

[Trotter]

Thistlecrack is a non runner