NIFL & Cymru Premier Predictions > Dec 17th - 21st

[StevieDay1983]

OK, so we have the odds for the Cymru Premier matches coming up this week but nothing from the Northern Irish league yet. Due to there being a game in the Welsh league tonight I'm posting it up now and will add Northern Ireland when it comes in. @Wiltshire Shot, @Cheltenhamwhite, and @Bang on, any of you guys betting on the game tonight?

Edit: Northern Ireland odds now added.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Nothing from me tonight as the price on Bala looks about right, but it has shortened from 1/4 and if it lengthens any more I might be tempted.  Given Penybont's recent form (one loss in five I think, including the cup) there's a case to be made for them, albeit only a modest one!  There are also some games in the north and south and I was going to oppose Colwyn Bay, but Conwy's generous double chance price came in too much before I could take it  

I'll post some thoughts on the weekend's games in due course.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Here's some thoughts on Friday's games (Saturday to follow).

Aberystwyth v Barry:  An interesting match because both sides are hopelessly out of form on paper, although Aber are beginning to put something together: recent defeats to Bala, TNS and to some extent Cefn Druids can be excused and these are the only defeats in eight, although they have been prone to draws.  On paper Barry should have too much but six defeats in seven (including the cup) point at form not matching reality.  The outcome will depend on which Barry turns up, and I'll not bet but follow it with interest because I can't call it.  I'll probably follow the stats and decide in play.

TNS v Cardiff:  TNS are very short which is the sort of but I keep away from, but I'll watch the first few minutes on the box and maybe bet involved then.

Connah's Quay v Bala:  This repeats the League Cup semi of four weeks ago, and if I recall correctly the prices are the same.  At the time the Nomads were on a good run and I thought the odds were about right so didn't bet.  Momentum is a different now with Connah's Quay not winning in a couple, and Bala having won five league games on the bounce, most by comfortable scores, although the opposition haven't always been the strongest.  The Nomads will still be a test and I make a home win the most likely score, but at the very most a 50/50 shot.  I got Bala double chance at evens (better is available now) with Betway, and I think there is a few percent of value in backing the visitors to avoid defeat.

There are a handful of matches in the North and South and I've got an interest in Briton Ferry v Llanelli.  The home side are on form and sit in third, while Llanelli have fallen away and now find themselves with a lot to do to go up.  However, Llanelli are too good to struggle for long and will come good at some stage.  I wouldn't normally bet on the game, but Sky have given me a freebie so I've backed Llanelli/draw double chance at 10/11 for a bit or interest; better than evens is available elsewhere.

[StevieDay1983]

Penybont vs Newtown

I'm not going to lie, I'm barrelling into this weekend's Cymru Premier matches like a clown running through a minefield. As soon as I saw these fixtures coming up I saw Penybont hosting Newtown in a 2:30pm GMT kick-off this Saturday at the KYMCO Stadium in Bridgend and it immediately stood out as the risky sort of bet I fancy taking in the last round of matches before Christmas.

Penybont are performing reasonably well considering they earned promotion last season. Rhys Griffiths will feel his team has shown enough to have the potential to stay up but with the club loitering in 10th and only outside the relegation spots due to a superior goal difference. The problem they have had is only taking 5 points from their 8 home matches in the league this season. They'll need to make the KYMCO into a bit more of a fortress if they want to stay up. It's three games without a win but they did hold Connah's Quay to a 0-0 draw in their last home match.

Newtown have been a thorn in our side this season with their inconsistency. Chris Hughes is trying to get his team higher up the table than their 7th place position right now but the real aim is to qualify for the Europa League play-offs and right now they're succeeding at that. They head to Bridgend having lost 6 of their 9 away matches in the league this season but have won three games on the bounce in all competitions.

I was drifting towards an away win in this one. Penybont's current form isn't exactly inspiring for us punters but I feel at home they are still holding their own. Newtown come into this game having built up some momentum and I think it'll be a closely contested match. This is one of the biggest risks I've taken in this section but I think I'm just going to back the draw in a tight game.

Draw @ 3.80 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.55 with Betfair

[Wiltshire Shot]

Saturday...

Airbus v Cefn Druids:  Airbus sit second from bottom of the table, and bottom of the form table with only one win in eight, although five of those were difficult matches.  The Druids are going the other way with seven wins from eight, and are rightly favourites here.  However, I don't make them 1/3 favourites so I've gone for a likely losing value (in my opinion) bet of Airbus/draw double chance at Hills' 12/5.  Even with these sides' current extremes of form I can't give Airbus such a small (30%) chance of avoiding defeat at home so I've taken it.

Carmarthen v Caernarfon:  Carmarthen have struggled this season and are rightly bottom.  The visitors are fourth but do most of their good work at home - 'only' a point a game away.  I'm not sure how this will go so I'm not betting.  Caernarfon were originally evens which I'd probably have taken, but are now around 8/11 which is too short for me.

 Penybont v Newtown:  @StevieDay1983 has said it all, and more eloquently than I could ever hope to.  I agree the draw is highly possible and I've covered it by taking Newtown DNB at Betway's 17/20.

[StevieDay1983]

11 hours ago, Wiltshire Shot said:

Saturday...

Airbus v Cefn Druids:  Airbus sit second from bottom of the table, and bottom of the form table with only one win in eight, although five of those were difficult matches.  The Druids are going the other way with seven wins from eight, and are rightly favourites here.  However, I don't make them 1/3 favourites so I've gone for a likely losing value (in my opinion) bet of Airbus/draw double chance at Hills' 12/5.  Even with these sides' current extremes of form I can't give Airbus such a small (30%) chance of avoiding defeat at home so I've taken it.

Carmarthen v Caernarfon:  Carmarthen have struggled this season and are rightly bottom.  The visitors are fourth but do most of their good work at home - 'only' a point a game away.  I'm not sure how this will go so I'm not betting.  Caernarfon were originally evens which I'd probably have taken, but are now around 8/11 which is too short for me.

 Penybont v Newtown:  @StevieDay1983 has said it all, and more eloquently than I could ever hope to.  I agree the draw is highly possible and I've covered it by taking Newtown DNB at Betway's 17/20.

Yes, the more I've thought about it, I think your Newtown Draw No Bet is the better shout. Can't believe TNS lost at home to Cardiff Met Uni last night! Acca buster right there. Never throw the Friday night or early Saturday kick-off in there!