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richard-westwood

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup - Tips & Trends

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Still on the hunt for a Xmas bonus 

Bit early to back but I've finished the ratings 

Good man pat   243 +5 

Clondaw castle 238 +5 

Brelan das    235 +1 

Interesting results from the computer and not what I was expecting .....good man pat has only run once at chelt and didn't run very well but all other races he's had he looked very talented and has been gifted a low weight here on balance of his form and 16/1 looks very good value if that chelt run was just a blip ...

Clondaw castle is an interesting horse ...has always been raced around 2 mile and looks very talented ....the step up looks well within his range but it's unknown territory ...could well be the making of him ...also nicely weighted priced around 12/1 he looks fair value 

Brelan das isn't that well hccapped but has ew chances for Nicholls but I prefer the top 2 for the win .....I'll keep an eye on prices and back later in week or if prices start to change .....probably 10pts ew on both for a shot at a decent payout.... 

 

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2 Valuable handicaps at Cheltenham this week, one on Friday and the other on Saturday

2.30 Friday

3m2f (New) BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Screen Shot 2019-12-11 at 16.54.33.png

Trends

10/10 Carried 11st 6 or below
9/10 Ran within 34 days
8/10 Aged 9 or under
12/22 Placed last time (8 won)
19/22 Had won at 3m + previously
22/22 Had ran at 3m + previously
17/22 First 4 in betting (7 favs)
 

______________________________________________

1.55 Saturday

2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 

Screen Shot 2019-12-11 at 16.54.28.png

Trends

10/10 Aged 8 or under
10/10 Ran within 36 days
8/10 Rated 151 or lower
7/10 Carried 10st 7lbs or more
16/20 First 3 last time out (7 won)
15/20 Stared at 6/1 or higher
17/20 had won at 2m4f or higher
20/20 Had ran at 2m4f or higher


 

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Betvictor chase friday 

Singlefarmpayment 245 +3 

Cogry   243 +3 

Doing fine  240 +2  

Cogry won this last year and will make another bold bid with conditions to suit ....would have been the ew bet at 11/2 But currently 5/1 ....Doing fine has ew chances off bottom weight but Singlefarmpayment is capable of a big run on a good day and last race should have put him spot on for this so it's close between top 2 but I'll try win bets 

Singlefarmpayment 5pts win 13/2 sky

Cogry 5pts win 5/1 bet365

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Friday

10/10 Carried 11st 6 or below
we lose West Approach, Rock The Kasbah, Cobra De Mai, Dandy Dan

9/10 Ran within 34 days
We lose Treacle Tart, Impulsive Star, Cogry, Pikamix, Onefortheroadtom

8/10 Aged 9 or under
All ok

19/22 Had won at 3m + previously
What A Moment not won at trip

 

Selections
1pt Singlefarmpayment 13/2 Hills
1pt EW Beau Du Brizais 16/1 bet365

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Saturday

10/10 Aged 8 or under
We lose Robin Des Foret, Knocknanuss

10/10 Ran within 36 days
We lose Secret Investor, Lalor, Benatar, Clondaw Castle, 

8/10 Rated 151 or lower
We lose Cepage, Keeper Hill, Riders Onthe storm

7/10 Carried 10st 7lbs or more
We lose Generous Day, Warthog, Not That Fuisse

16/20 First 3 last time out (7 won)
We lose Imperial Presence, Spiritofthegames, Good Man Pat

Selection

1pt EW  Brelan D'As 10/1 Hills first 5

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On 12/11/2019 at 8:06 PM, richard-westwood said:

Betvictor chase friday 

Singlefarmpayment 245 +3 

Cogry   243 +3 

Doing fine  240 +2  

Cogry won this last year and will make another bold bid with conditions to suit ....would have been the ew bet at 11/2 But currently 5/1 ....Doing fine has ew chances off bottom weight but Singlefarmpayment is capable of a big run on a good day and last race should have put him spot on for this so it's close between top 2 but I'll try win bets 

Singlefarmpayment 5pts win 13/2 sky

Cogry 5pts win 5/1 bet365

What a race ...cogry wins in photo 

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Gold Cup Handicap Chase:

  • 20/20 were aged 4-8
  • 20/20 had won a 9k+ race
  • 20/20 had run at the course
  • 14/14 had not run for 22+ days
  • 12/12 had won at least 1 of its last 5 runs
  • 11/11 had won over 2mf4+
  • 10/10 had run in the previous 36 days

Shortlist:

  • CEPAGE (6/1)
  • BRELAN D'AS (7/1)

Paul Nicholls (Brelan D'As) has won this race in 5 of the last 10 years.

Venetia Williams (Cepage) in 2014, have also saddled a recent winner of the race.

International Hurdle:

  • 20/20 had run 5+ times over hurdles
  • 18/18 had finished 1-2 at the course
  • 16/16 had won 20%+ (1/5) of its runs over hurdles
  • 10/10 had won a Grade 1-3 hurdle race
Shortlist:
  • ELIXIR DE NUTZ (13/2)
  • LE PATRIOTE (16/1)

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