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StevieDay1983

LOI, NIFL, and WPL Predictions > Nov 29th & 30th

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Here's some thought on the Welsh Premier:

Aber v Cefn Druids:  All of us on last week's thread picked the Druids as well priced, and it might well have come off had they not had a man sent off (and another when too late to make a difference).  I know they'll be without three suspended, but I can't find any update on their injury problems.  I'm not impressed by Aberystwyth and I want to take Cefn Druids on the back of their good form but not until I know how strong a team they can field.

Caernarfon should beat out of form Cardiff MU but have stuttered a bit in recent games so I'll leave it alone.

Airbus v TNS:  TNS should have too much for their hosts, but 1/6 is too short for me, especially away.  And Airbus were unlucky to lose against a decent Bala team when I saw them a couple of weeks ago.

Barry should beat Newtown, but Barry's impressive form has collapsed somewhat, although they did outclass Penybont last week.  I'd want to be more convinced by their form before backing them at 8/11, even against a mid-table side who struggle on their travels.

Bala are rightly favourites at Carmarthen, but the hosts won easily last week under their new manager so may be about to have a resurgence, and I also don't think their as bad as the table suggests.  Bala are one of the form sides, but under the circumstances I'm staying away.

Similar to Airbus/TNS, Connah's Quay should win at Penybont, but I'm not taking 2/5 on anyone away from home.

So, no bets for me in the Premier as there's nothing I can pick out as value, although Caernarfon and Cefn Druids nearly had my backing.  As Newtown struggle to score and Barry are generally solid at the back (recent form excepted) there may be something in the general 2/1 for Barry to win to nil, but that's a type of bet I don't like - every time I try it I get let down by a late consolation!

 

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...however, Bet365 have priced up Friday's games in the Cymru North and South, and I'm on Bangor/draw at 5/4 for their game at Colwyn Bay.  5th plays 10th but Bangor are only four points behind with a game in hand.  (Edit the league table I used is a week or so out of date but the principle stands.)

Bay are priced at 8/15 which is significantly shorter than my own price of around evens.  Bangor are inconsistent and prone to red cards, and are equally capable of both losing by a hatful and grinding out a result.  I've seen them three times this season, including when they were unlucky to draw with second placed Flint despite a red card.  I also saw the reverse fixture against Bay which was evenly contested and Colwyn Bay won with a very late winner; a draw would have been fair.  Bangor also drew with Premier sides TNS and Bala in the League Cup, and had a good win at Rhyl last week.   However, to add balance Bangor have also underperformed on several occasions.

I've seen Colwyn Bay twice; the reverse game at Bangor and what must have been a disappointing home defeat to Porthmadog last week, although Porthmadog are better than their relegation place suggests.  Bay have consolidated since transferring from the English system this season and are comfortably upper mid-table, and while a home win is the most likely result I don't think they should be so short.

Disclaimer - Bangor are my Welsh team but I've tried not to let that bias my thoughts.

 

Edited by Wiltshire Shot
To note the table I looked at hadn't been updated

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Caernarfon vs Cardiff Met Uni

The Cymru Premier matches for the weekend kick-off tonight and I'm previewing the 8pm GMT game between Caernarfon and Cardiff Met Uni at The Oval in Caernarfon. It's a mid-table clash between two clubs that are separated by just 3 points. Will there be anything to split the two teams in this game or will they cancel each other out to end the game in a draw?

Caernarfon have fast become one of my favourite teams in Welsh football (apologies, @Wiltshire Shot! :lol). Sean Eardley is doing a decent job with a squad that is arguably punching above its weight. The Canaries are 5th in the league table and only 5 points off the automatic qualification for the Europa League. The team remains undefeated at home this season and that can be attributed to the awesome atmosphere their fans create at their home games. It's now 4 home wins on the bounce in the league so they'll be confident coming into this.

Cardiff Met Uni are positioned just behind Caernarfon in the table in 6th place. Christian Edwards may well be getting a twitchy bum with Cefn Druids and Newtown breathing down their neck so he'll be keen to avoid a poor run of results. It's 3 league games on the road without a win for the Archers. Only 2 wins from their 7 away games this season isn't great reading. The 2-1 win over 10 man Cefn Druids last weekend ended a run of 7 league games without a win. Has that victory simply papered over the cracks though?

I'm getting the feeling that trouble isn't going to ease at Cardiff Met Uni. Something isn't quite right at the club and it'll be interesting to see what happens if they lose this game. I think Caernarfon have every right to feel they can win this game and given the price they are available for a home win I have to back that. I do fear the visiting side could grind out a draw but I'm backing a Caernarfon win to continue their excellent home form.

Caernarfon to Win @ 2,25 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.72 with Sportingbet

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Have to agree with @StevieDay1983 , Caernarfon were my stand out pick, winning their previous 3 home games, 2 of which were against top sides Barry and TNS. Odds against at home with the form to back it up is a definite selection for me. Caernarfon 5/4. Won 2-1

In Northern Ireland, I still think that Linfield are on the up (despite letting me down last week - recovered losses in midweek with a win at 17/20). So, I am going with them again in a double with Coleraine (Top of table away at next to bottom and out of form Institute who have 2 draws and 6 defeats from 8 home games). Linfield/Coleraine double pays 19/20.

Edited by Bang on

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