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Rey86

Which is the most profitable/predictable market?

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I wish i could embed a poll for this question

Which market do you consider more profitable and easy to predict?

 

1Χ2

Ο/U

btts/no

Asian Handicap

First Half winner

 

something else?

 

I used to bet only on btts and o/u markets because the possible outcomes were only 2 instead of 1X2 market where the possible outcomes are

and thought it was easier

but i notices that in betfair the biggest amounts of money are trade on 1X2 market

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I would expect it to be the 1 X 2 market as that is the one where you can achieve the  lowest over-round,

Or maybe the Asian handicap as a lot of the big money seems to be in that market although I personally have never looked into it I have read a lot of articles on it and it does seem the preferred betting market of the big money punters purely due to the amounts they can get on.

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It's not about market rather than probabilities and margin applied to them.

you have to understand that bookies rely on source markets in order to derive all other markets, hence they are all following the correct probabilities (provided their models are correct).

 

additionally the most of them

rely on pricing feeds so they all have same odds. You might find an edge for matches proced early, where market (asian) is not yet balanced and bookies copy each other with limited knowledge on what is going on.

avoid top leagues since they usually are well studied. 

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Recently i heard an opinion on this

that most people are betting on 1X2 markets cos it is the easiest to bet and recuires the less time to fin out what to bet

 

not sure if it is any true but i kinda liked this idea

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