November H'cap / Badger Ales Chase - Saturday

[richard-westwood]

Was just looking forward to this weekend's big races ....passed it through the spreadsheet and it threw up 3 big priced horses 

Diocletian  227+2  12/1 willh

Spanish archer  226 +1 20/1 365

Francis Xavier  223 +1 25/1 365

Some very good value there ....3x 5pt wins

[BillyHills]

315 Doncaster

1m4f (1m3f197y) November Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Previous Winners

Trends....

10/10 Drawn 9 or higher
9/10 Aged 6 and under (8, 5 or under)
8/10 Ran within 60 days
8/10 Carried 9st 2 or less
7/10 Rated lower than 105
17/22 First 4 last time (13 first two)
19/22 Had at least 4 starts this season
17/22 Never won beyond 1m4f

 

 

335 Wincanton

3m1f (3m1f30y) Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+ 0-155)

Previous Winners

Trends...

10/10 Aged 9 or less
7/10 Had a run this season
6/10 Carried less than 11st 6lbs
17/22 First 4 last time (10 won)
17/22 rated 140 or less
19/22 won at 3m or more
16/22 First 5 in beting
P.Nicholls won the race 9 times from 39 runners (18 places)
(Next best David Pipe with 3)

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Early prices at bet365

[richard-westwood]

Badger trophy 

Walk in the mill  230 +2 16/1 pp 3pts ew 

Give me a copper  230 +1 8/1 willh 5pts ew 

Walt     230 +1 33/1 b365 3pts ew 

A three way tie in such a crazy open race ....lots of value on offer so may as well play and hope a biggy goes in 

 

[Tedthewolf]

Main bet is  a win on ROCK THE KASBAH  10/1 for the hobbs  johnson team i also i think WHISPER a 40/1 chance has an e/w shout  paying 4 places 1/5 odds.

Best of luck all.

[Big Race Trends]

Badger Ales Handicap Chase:

• 18/18 were aged 6-9
• 18/18 were rated 145 max
• 14/14 had won over 3m+
• 13/13 had finished 1-4 or failed to finish LTO
• 13/13 had run a maximum 17 times over fences
• 10/10 had won at least 1 of its last 6 races

5 runners hit the trends:

• GIVE ME A COPPER (7/1)
• BEAU DU BRIZAIS (18/1)
• SUMKINDOFKING (12/1)
• JUST A STING (15/2)
• SOUPY SOUPS (14/1)

Rising Star Novices' Chase:

• 20/20 had won at least 1 of its last 4 races
• 15/15 were aged 4-7
• 11/11 had run in the past 36 days
• 11/11 had run in a novice chase LTO

2 runners hit the trends:

• RESERVE TANK (5/6)
• IF YOU SAY RUN (7/2)

Paul Nicholls trains GIVE ME A COPPER & IF YOU SAY RUN - the double pays 35/1

[Trotter]

I like the look of Present Man for the Badger Ales ........ goes for a hat trick of wins in the race and you just know Nicholls will have him fine tuned and prepped to the minute

This has probably been his objective since he won the race last year

[BillyHills]

Ratings

 

1pt EW Beau Du Brizais 22/1 PP

[BillyHills]

Trends

10/10 Aged 9 or less
We lose The Young Master, Whisper
7/10 Had a run this season
We lose Rock The Kasbah, Give Me A Copper, Walk In The Mill, Just A Sting
17/22 First 4 last time (10 won)
We lose Cobra De Mai, Present Man, Royal Vacation, White Moon, Wicked Willy

Soupy Soups never won beyond 3m

Selections:

1pt EW Sumkindofking 12/1 bet365
1pt EW  Beau Du Brizais 22/1 PP

 

[richard-westwood]

On 11/6/2019 at 12:26 PM, richard-westwood said:

Badger trophy 

Walk in the mill  230 +2 16/1 pp 3pts ew 

Give me a copper  230 +1 8/1 willh 5pts ew 

Walt     230 +1 33/1 b365 3pts ew 

A three way tie in such a crazy open race ....lots of value on offer so may as well play and hope a biggy goes in 

 

Well Nicholls said he would come on a lot for the run so I wasn't expecting much but nice job Nicholls...60pts returned