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richard-westwood

Melbourne cup

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Prince of Arran  244+2 

Finch   244+2 

Constantinople 242 +2 

Mer de glace 241 +3 

Constantinople met trouble in running so could be better than people think but he's very inexperienced ....I'd rather play a couple of value bets in the top 2 here ....both are joint top and both have the same adjusted class rating on my other ratings (112)...so they literally seem neck and neck ....worth a play ....might even try forecast too lol

Prince of Arran 10pts ew 20/1 bet365

Finche 10pts ew 10/1 pp

2pt rev forecast 

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The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation and it has long been one of my favourite races. It has been a decent Spring Carnival with my previews having found the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and then landing the winner of the Cox Plate. It looks a good renewal of the famous race this year and it looks a competitive one as well. Hopefully I can help make you profit on the race which will be live on Sky Sports Racing at 4am Tuesday morning. 
 
Cross Counter - Great winner of the race last year when he was only carrying 8-0. This time around he is top weight and will have to carry 9-1 and that automatically makes things trickier for him. After that win he went on to win the Dubai Gold Cup beating Ispolini and then he was a close 4th in the Gold Cup and 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. He was sent off favourite for the Irish St Leger last time, but he was a one paced 4th with the drop in trip not suiting. The fact only four horses in the history of the race have gone back-to-back shows how hard it will be for him and I find it hard to see him winning it again. I do think he has place claims though.
 
Mer De Glace - I was worried the ground wouldn't be quick enough for him ahead of the Caulfield Cup, but he proved that thought to be wrong as he ran out an impressive winner and with a Japanese horse also winning the Cox Plate they have a decent chance of taking another big prize back to Japan. The Caulfield win was his 6th on the bounce and the 0.5kg penalty he got for winning that could have easily been more. The queries I have about his chances though are the trip especially if it is on the softer side and the fact there looked to be a few unlucky horses in behind him at Caulfield and it wouldn't surprise me if at least one was able to reverse the form. 
 
Master Of Reality - Frankie Dettori is desperate to win this race and if he repeated the 1L 3rd to Stradivarius in the Gold Cup he would have an obvious chance. I'm surprised he was dropped in trip after that to 1m6f twice and he looked a bit one pace in both of his following starts at the Curragh. Will probably try to make the running from stall 1, but I think he will find a few with more pace than him in the finish.
 
Mirage Dancer - I fancied him in the Caulfield Cup and he ran a cracker to finish 3rd. Unlike some in that race I thought the Caulfield Cup was the race for him over this contest and I don't really fancy him here.
 
Southern France - Beat Downdraft by 2L off level weights at the Curragh in August and he now has to give 4lbs to him in this. He was then 3rd in the Irish St Leger in front of Cross Counter and at these weights he should in theory beat him again. Now trained in Australia he looks to have claims of running well based on his European form with 2m on good or softer looking ideal for him.
 
Hunting Horn - Did have Downdraft behind him in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, but that race was run at a very slow tempo which would have suited him and this is going to be a very different test. He isn't for me.
 
Latrobe - Last year's Irish Derby winner and he had one Australian start last year when only just beaten a head in the Mackinnon Stakes over 2000m here. This season he has been OK and did win a Group 3 at Leopardstown in August, but he doesn't seem in as good form as he was last year and the trip is a question mark as well. I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough.
 
Mustajeer - I thought the Ebor winner ran a cracking prep for this when a close 6th in the Caulfield Cup on his first start for Kris Lees. He came from a long way back and was finishing his race off nicely. He should relish the step up to 3200m, he has been given a kind draw and he is one for the shortlist.
 
Rostropovich - Was 5th in this last year when he had a terrible draw in 21. Drawn much better this year, but in 3 runs so far this prep he hasn't run well and although he was given a bit of a strange ride in the Caulfield Cup last time the call has to be to take on.
 
Twilight Payment - Beat Latrobe in the Curragh Cup back in June, but only 7th last time in the Irish St Leger and given he is 6 (7 in the Southern Hemisphere) he doesn't really strike as one who is going to be ahead of the handicapper.
 
Finche - Another one to return having run in this last year and he ran well to finish 4th. A lot of experts seem to want to forgive his effort in the Caulfield Cup given he had a poor draw, but I was a bit disappointed with it myself and it was a step back from the 2nd in the Turnbull. I know he was 5th, but he wasn't exactly finishing off the race well and he didn't last year either. I can see him finishing in the top half dozen again, but I am opposing for the win.
 
Prince Of Arran - He loves Australia and his form figures Down Under are very impressive and include a 3rd in this last year. Arguably the one thing that might have stopped him from winning was the fact he had to run in the Lexus 3 days before to get into the race and if he didn't have to do that I suspect we would have seen an even better performance. This year has clearly been all about coming back as he ran a good race in the Ebor before finishing 3rd in the September Stakes at Kempton. He was just beaten in the Herbert Power by The Chosen One before putting in a good performance to land the Geelong Cup. I think he has to be one of the leading contenders.
 
Raymond Tusk - I thought he ran a massive race in the Ebor and was arguably a bit unlucky to not win the race. The fact he didn't might help him because he obviously would have had more weight to carry. He had solid form earlier in the season in good races and you would imagine this and the Ebor were the targets after he ran in the Gold Cup. A leading player for me.
 
Downdraft - Was hugely impressive in winning the Hotham (used to be the Lexus) on Saturday to get him into the race and on the face of it he didn't have that hard a race as he won as he liked. Ignore the 3rd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup as the tempo was against him. Only 3 horses since 1960 have done the double and that shows you how hard it is, but a run as good as Prince Of Arran last year wouldn't be a total surprise.
 
Magic Wand - I can't have her at all. She is so consistent and keeps running well in lots of good races as she did when 4th in the Cox Plate last time, but she doesn't look like she has any chance of staying 2m and she has a terrible draw in 24. Would be a surprise to me if she could win this.
 
Neufbosc - His Australian form is awful and he looks to have no chance.
 
Sound - The Caulfield Cup run wasn't completely hopeless, but would still be a shock winner. 
 
Surprise Baby - This will only be his 11th start and he has won half of his races to date. That includes an Adelaide Cup over this trip and he won the Group 3 Bart Cummings here earlier in his prep. Looks unexposed and progressive, but the concern for me is that his form doesn't look as good as the Europeans or those coming out of the Caulfield Cup. The draw hasn't been kind either and although he wouldn't be a surprise winner I get the feeling he won't be good enough.
 
Constantinople - He didn't always look the most genuine when trained by Aidan, but he was very unlucky in the Caulfield Cup as he got no run early in the straight and was flying when he did eventually get out. He looks to have a lot in his favour and Flemington should suit him a lot more than Caulfield did. His attitude is a concern if he needs to battle late on so that is a concern about him winning, but he certainly looks a cracking e/w bet as I can't see him out of the frame.
 
Il Paradiso - I don't think Ryan Moore has chosen Magic Wand over him because his lightest weight in the last 12 months is 8-6 and he only has to carry 8-4. Has a similar looking profile to 2017 winner Rekindling having finished 5th in the St Leger last time. Unexposed and clearly wants this sort of trip given he bolted up over 2m at the Curragh in July. That wasn't a strong race though and he was done for toe in the St Leger and even though this is 2 furlongs further it has to be a concern if it does turn into more of a sprint.
 
Steel Prince - Booked himself a run for this when beating Surprise Baby in the Andrew Ramsden here in May. Was due to be favourite for the Herbert Power, but he had to be scratched as he played up in the stalls and he wasn't great in the Geelong Cup after that. Looks to have a fair bit to do for me.
 
The Chosen One - Got a shocking ride on Saturday in the Hotham and his win over Prince Of Arran 3 starts back reads quite well. Even so looks unlikely to be good enough.
 
Vow And Declare - Ran a cracking prep for this when finishing 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and every chance he can reverse form with the winner over this longer trip. Won a Group 3 over 3100m in June and then was given a break before finishing a very good 4th in the Turnbull. Looks a progressive horse and has a superb chance, but the draw of 21 does hinder things. Does have a turn of foot though so if he gets luck in running I think he will be bang there.
 
Youngstar - I fancied her for the race last year and she ran well to finish 6th, but to me she has gone backwards since then. The one thing you can say was her best run since was her last start, but she hardly looks capable of even equaling her run last year let alone top it. 
 
Summary - Down the card I have narrowed it down to the following 6 Southern France, Mustajeer, Prince Of Arran, Raymond Tusk, Constantinople and Vow And Declare. The two of those I am going to leave out of the first 4 are Southern France and Mustajeer. I think it is a tricky renewal this year, but I am just siding with Vow And Declare as the main selection. He looks progressive and the Caulfield Cup run was superb. The draw is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me as everything else is in his favour. If Constantinople was guaranteed to put it all in I would have had him on top. He looked very unlucky at Caulfield and although he is unproven over this trip he is bred to stay. He has a great draw in 7 and I just can't see him out of the frame. Raymond Tusk goes in next as he could easily have won the Ebor granted more luck in running. I'm not sure if he is going to be quite good enough to win this, but he certainly looks up to hitting the frame. Prince Of Arran loves it in Melbourne (who can blame him!) and he looks over priced e/w.
 
1st Vow And Declare
2nd Constantinople
3rd Raymond Tusk
4th Prince Of Arran
 
NB Check the bookies e/w terms. If you can get on with Skybet they are going 7 places and Paddy Power are going 6 with some others going 5. Be careful if betting with Bet365 as in their Australian market they will only be going 3 places as that is the Australian terms and they will have a separate UK market paying better e/w terms. 

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On 11/3/2019 at 9:21 PM, Darran said:
The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation and it has long been one of my favourite races. It has been a decent Spring Carnival with my previews having found the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and then landing the winner of the Cox Plate. It looks a good renewal of the famous race this year and it looks a competitive one as well. Hopefully I can help make you profit on the race which will be live on Sky Sports Racing at 4am Tuesday morning. 
 
Cross Counter - Great winner of the race last year when he was only carrying 8-0. This time around he is top weight and will have to carry 9-1 and that automatically makes things trickier for him. After that win he went on to win the Dubai Gold Cup beating Ispolini and then he was a close 4th in the Gold Cup and 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. He was sent off favourite for the Irish St Leger last time, but he was a one paced 4th with the drop in trip not suiting. The fact only four horses in the history of the race have gone back-to-back shows how hard it will be for him and I find it hard to see him winning it again. I do think he has place claims though.
 
Mer De Glace - I was worried the ground wouldn't be quick enough for him ahead of the Caulfield Cup, but he proved that thought to be wrong as he ran out an impressive winner and with a Japanese horse also winning the Cox Plate they have a decent chance of taking another big prize back to Japan. The Caulfield win was his 6th on the bounce and the 0.5kg penalty he got for winning that could have easily been more. The queries I have about his chances though are the trip especially if it is on the softer side and the fact there looked to be a few unlucky horses in behind him at Caulfield and it wouldn't surprise me if at least one was able to reverse the form. 
 
Master Of Reality - Frankie Dettori is desperate to win this race and if he repeated the 1L 3rd to Stradivarius in the Gold Cup he would have an obvious chance. I'm surprised he was dropped in trip after that to 1m6f twice and he looked a bit one pace in both of his following starts at the Curragh. Will probably try to make the running from stall 1, but I think he will find a few with more pace than him in the finish.
 
Mirage Dancer - I fancied him in the Caulfield Cup and he ran a cracker to finish 3rd. Unlike some in that race I thought the Caulfield Cup was the race for him over this contest and I don't really fancy him here.
 
Southern France - Beat Downdraft by 2L off level weights at the Curragh in August and he now has to give 4lbs to him in this. He was then 3rd in the Irish St Leger in front of Cross Counter and at these weights he should in theory beat him again. Now trained in Australia he looks to have claims of running well based on his European form with 2m on good or softer looking ideal for him.
 
Hunting Horn - Did have Downdraft behind him in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, but that race was run at a very slow tempo which would have suited him and this is going to be a very different test. He isn't for me.
 
Latrobe - Last year's Irish Derby winner and he had one Australian start last year when only just beaten a head in the Mackinnon Stakes over 2000m here. This season he has been OK and did win a Group 3 at Leopardstown in August, but he doesn't seem in as good form as he was last year and the trip is a question mark as well. I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough.
 
Mustajeer - I thought the Ebor winner ran a cracking prep for this when a close 6th in the Caulfield Cup on his first start for Kris Lees. He came from a long way back and was finishing his race off nicely. He should relish the step up to 3200m, he has been given a kind draw and he is one for the shortlist.
 
Rostropovich - Was 5th in this last year when he had a terrible draw in 21. Drawn much better this year, but in 3 runs so far this prep he hasn't run well and although he was given a bit of a strange ride in the Caulfield Cup last time the call has to be to take on.
 
Twilight Payment - Beat Latrobe in the Curragh Cup back in June, but only 7th last time in the Irish St Leger and given he is 6 (7 in the Southern Hemisphere) he doesn't really strike as one who is going to be ahead of the handicapper.
 
Finche - Another one to return having run in this last year and he ran well to finish 4th. A lot of experts seem to want to forgive his effort in the Caulfield Cup given he had a poor draw, but I was a bit disappointed with it myself and it was a step back from the 2nd in the Turnbull. I know he was 5th, but he wasn't exactly finishing off the race well and he didn't last year either. I can see him finishing in the top half dozen again, but I am opposing for the win.
 
Prince Of Arran - He loves Australia and his form figures Down Under are very impressive and include a 3rd in this last year. Arguably the one thing that might have stopped him from winning was the fact he had to run in the Lexus 3 days before to get into the race and if he didn't have to do that I suspect we would have seen an even better performance. This year has clearly been all about coming back as he ran a good race in the Ebor before finishing 3rd in the September Stakes at Kempton. He was just beaten in the Herbert Power by The Chosen One before putting in a good performance to land the Geelong Cup. I think he has to be one of the leading contenders.
 
Raymond Tusk - I thought he ran a massive race in the Ebor and was arguably a bit unlucky to not win the race. The fact he didn't might help him because he obviously would have had more weight to carry. He had solid form earlier in the season in good races and you would imagine this and the Ebor were the targets after he ran in the Gold Cup. A leading player for me.
 
Downdraft - Was hugely impressive in winning the Hotham (used to be the Lexus) on Saturday to get him into the race and on the face of it he didn't have that hard a race as he won as he liked. Ignore the 3rd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup as the tempo was against him. Only 3 horses since 1960 have done the double and that shows you how hard it is, but a run as good as Prince Of Arran last year wouldn't be a total surprise.
 
Magic Wand - I can't have her at all. She is so consistent and keeps running well in lots of good races as she did when 4th in the Cox Plate last time, but she doesn't look like she has any chance of staying 2m and she has a terrible draw in 24. Would be a surprise to me if she could win this.
 
Neufbosc - His Australian form is awful and he looks to have no chance.
 
Sound - The Caulfield Cup run wasn't completely hopeless, but would still be a shock winner. 
 
Surprise Baby - This will only be his 11th start and he has won half of his races to date. That includes an Adelaide Cup over this trip and he won the Group 3 Bart Cummings here earlier in his prep. Looks unexposed and progressive, but the concern for me is that his form doesn't look as good as the Europeans or those coming out of the Caulfield Cup. The draw hasn't been kind either and although he wouldn't be a surprise winner I get the feeling he won't be good enough.
 
Constantinople - He didn't always look the most genuine when trained by Aidan, but he was very unlucky in the Caulfield Cup as he got no run early in the straight and was flying when he did eventually get out. He looks to have a lot in his favour and Flemington should suit him a lot more than Caulfield did. His attitude is a concern if he needs to battle late on so that is a concern about him winning, but he certainly looks a cracking e/w bet as I can't see him out of the frame.
 
Il Paradiso - I don't think Ryan Moore has chosen Magic Wand over him because his lightest weight in the last 12 months is 8-6 and he only has to carry 8-4. Has a similar looking profile to 2017 winner Rekindling having finished 5th in the St Leger last time. Unexposed and clearly wants this sort of trip given he bolted up over 2m at the Curragh in July. That wasn't a strong race though and he was done for toe in the St Leger and even though this is 2 furlongs further it has to be a concern if it does turn into more of a sprint.
 
Steel Prince - Booked himself a run for this when beating Surprise Baby in the Andrew Ramsden here in May. Was due to be favourite for the Herbert Power, but he had to be scratched as he played up in the stalls and he wasn't great in the Geelong Cup after that. Looks to have a fair bit to do for me.
 
The Chosen One - Got a shocking ride on Saturday in the Hotham and his win over Prince Of Arran 3 starts back reads quite well. Even so looks unlikely to be good enough.
 
Vow And Declare - Ran a cracking prep for this when finishing 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and every chance he can reverse form with the winner over this longer trip. Won a Group 3 over 3100m in June and then was given a break before finishing a very good 4th in the Turnbull. Looks a progressive horse and has a superb chance, but the draw of 21 does hinder things. Does have a turn of foot though so if he gets luck in running I think he will be bang there.
 
Youngstar - I fancied her for the race last year and she ran well to finish 6th, but to me she has gone backwards since then. The one thing you can say was her best run since was her last start, but she hardly looks capable of even equaling her run last year let alone top it. 
 
Summary - Down the card I have narrowed it down to the following 6 Southern France, Mustajeer, Prince Of Arran, Raymond Tusk, Constantinople and Vow And Declare. The two of those I am going to leave out of the first 4 are Southern France and Mustajeer. I think it is a tricky renewal this year, but I am just siding with Vow And Declare as the main selection. He looks progressive and the Caulfield Cup run was superb. The draw is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me as everything else is in his favour. If Constantinople was guaranteed to put it all in I would have had him on top. He looked very unlucky at Caulfield and although he is unproven over this trip he is bred to stay. He has a great draw in 7 and I just can't see him out of the frame. Raymond Tusk goes in next as he could easily have won the Ebor granted more luck in running. I'm not sure if he is going to be quite good enough to win this, but he certainly looks up to hitting the frame. Prince Of Arran loves it in Melbourne (who can blame him!) and he looks over priced e/w.
 
1st Vow And Declare
2nd Constantinople
3rd Raymond Tusk
4th Prince Of Arran
 
NB Check the bookies e/w terms. If you can get on with Skybet they are going 7 places and Paddy Power are going 6 with some others going 5. Be careful if betting with Bet365 as in their Australian market they will only be going 3 places as that is the Australian terms and they will have a separate UK market paying better e/w terms. 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 9:00 PM, richard-westwood said:

Prince of Arran  244+2 

Finch   244+2 

Constantinople 242 +2 

Mer de glace 241 +3 

Constantinople met trouble in running so could be better than people think but he's very inexperienced ....I'd rather play a couple of value bets in the top 2 here ....both are joint top and both have the same adjusted class rating on my other ratings (112)...so they literally seem neck and neck ....worth a play ....might even try forecast too lol

Prince of Arran 10pts ew 20/1 bet365

Finche 10pts ew 10/1 pp

2pt rev forecast 

Vow and declare wins 

..prince of Arran 3rd .....what a thrilling race ...well done.....I'm happy with that 

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

It appears Prince of Arran was 2nd ...was the result altered ?....mer de glace was 6th and finche  7th ..all ran well ....yes the 4th made a complaint and 2nd was demoted to 4th I think 

Yeah Frankies mount interfered with the 4th so they put him back to 4th and the other two moved up a place

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