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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - November 4 - November 10

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Yuta Shimizu to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 3.31 with Pinnacle

While I do agree with Watanuki being the favorite in this one, I don't get the odds at all. He's been playing well under his standards all year long and, while he was the finalist here last year, you never know how that's going to work out with unproven youngsters. I'm not saying that this can't finish 6-2 6-2 in his favor, it certainly can, but Shimizu had a tremendous tournament last time out, even taking a set off Fokina, and, unlike Watanuki, he also had some rest ahead of this encounter, so I think that it makes sense to chance him at everything above 3.00. If you'd like some additional security, it's probably better to go for the set handicap over the 3.5 games handicap.

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The match above has been cancelled.

Gonzalo Escobar to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Going for a favourite this time around. Escobar is generally playing at a higher level than Baez, so I think that he should be something like 1.50 here. Both guys are on decent runs, but Escobar's wins have come against players of a very decent standard, while Baez has been beating lads that most of us have never heard before. Not much to add here apart from that. 

Adrian Menendez-Maceiras to beat John Jeffrey Wolf at 3.25 with Bet365

If risk is what you're looking for, AMM should certainly give you a good run for your money. He's beaten Wolf twice last season and, while Wolf has certainly improved since then, I don't think that there's anything to suggest that he should be such a big favorite this time around. I haven't been paying all that much attention to him, to be fair, but I've seen AMM recently and he looked pretty good in his defeat against Vesely, for example, so I reckon he's a very live underdog here.

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No matches until tomorrow in Milan but matches in Bratislava are scheduled and I feel tempted to go for Maxime Cressy today so...

Maxime Cressy to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.40 with Unibet

Emils seems to have lost his form he had earlier this season but Maxime has showed enough form last two weeks so I think Emil is a bit overrated now.

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Huge chance for Ymer

Tournament: Junior playoff Milan. Surface: Hardcourt

Fun with a swede in the juniorplayoff and I think it can go very well. No Tsitsipas, no Auger-Aliassime and no Shapovalov. The three best players are missing and therefore it's only De Minaur who sticks out. Behind him I think Ymer has every chance of doing very well in Milan.

Ymer starts here against Humbert who has clearly better merits than him. börjar här mot Humbert som har klart bättre meriter än honom. Humbert are a bit ahead of Ymer and have already been playing half a season on the ATP tour. But if Humbert are so mutch better than Ymer, highly doubtable. 

This should suit Ymer well with the style he's got. Humbert are a very offensive player who thrives with coming forward. Ymer is at his best when he gets to defend and counterattack which is what he will be able to do against Humbert. He will feel very comfortable.

Edited by four-leaf

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The groups are out - Nadal/Medvedev/Zverev/Tsitsipas and Djokovic/Federer/Thiem/Berrettini.

The second group should be relatively straightforward unless Thiem decides to show up out of the blue, but the first group should be fun :lol. Any predictions?

 

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Roy Smith (+4.5) to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.90 with Bet365

This is obviously not a particularly appealing week betting-wise, but I like this one. Mmoh is the better player of the two overall, but he's been dreadful all season long and the fact that he's found some form here doesn't really impress me. Smith has beaten Mmoh earlier in this season and he's beaten Kudla last time out as well, so I like his chances of keeping this close at the very least.

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Novak Djokovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.61 with Pinnacle

Right. As much as I admire Berrettini's heroic efforts from this season, he's unproven against the really top guys and he has the worst possible draw for the first round, as Djokovic will have to be in full focus with no qualification guaranteed and with every single set counting for something at the start of the tournament. That's why I think that there's some value even in such an obvious and public bet. No matter how you look at it, this is a must-win match for Djokovic - and chances are that he's going to grab the win without too many difficulties.

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