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Darran

Non-League Predictions > October 7th-9th

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A poor day on Saturday, but days like that will happen so we move on to the midweek action and I have 2 bets I like the look of.

Aldershot v Dover

It really annoys me that the only time I have backed Dover when they have played away from home was the only time they haven't won on their travels this season. That game ended in defeat to Boreham Wood, but apart from that they have been exceptional on the road this season and I fancy them to win here against a poor Aldershot side. Aldershot have only managed to beat Wrexham at home so far this season and obviously given where they are in the table it doesn't say a great deal. They played out a dire 0-0 on Saturday against Chorley and you would expect Dover to have too much for them. Dover played their part in a good game on Saturday where they were denied the 3 points late on by Notts County in a 2-2 draw. For me Dover should be odds on for this and I can't see the 13/10 lasting.

Stockport v Hartlepool

This game is the live BT Sport game on Wednesday night and I think Hartlepool are a big price to back up their win against Yeovil on Saturday. They played really well and to get a winner in injury time a couple of minutes after Yeovil had equalised showed a real strength in character. That was their first win in 6, but they are unbeaten in 3 now and they have decent away form only losing to Halifax and Dagenham so far on their travels. I still think they look a side capable of being in the promotion mix and to be fair despite the fact they are 15th they are only 4 points from the play-off places. Stockport are in desperate form at the moment and lost 5 on the bounce before getting a 0-0 draw at Sutton on Saturday. There were some shocking performances in those defeats as well and they were conceding goals for fun. Manager Jim Gannon saw some improvement on Saturday, but it wasn't a great game and I think Hartlepool can punish them. I'm surprised that Hartlepool are as big as 5/2 because I think they are the better team and would have them no bigger than 7/4.

Dover 4pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor

Hartlepool 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365

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Gloucester v Whitby

Part of me doesn't want to get involved in this game as obviously I already have a lot riding on it from an emotional point of view as I am always desperate for us to progress in the FA Cup, but take my heart out of it the game looks to be potentially one that money can be made from and ultimately I would be getting involved if I wasn't a Gloucester fan. Whitby should have won the first tie on Saturday and Gloucester equalised very late in the game to take the match to a replay. Not surprisingly the Whitby players looked gutted after the goal goes in and that for me was the moment their hopes in the FA Cup ended. Just 48 hours later they have to travel over 200 miles to Evesham to take in the replay. That is tough for plenty of reasons but the main one being they could well struggle to raise a team tonight. They were already suffering from injuries and the squad was pretty depleted on Saturday and then the players have to try and get a day off work at very short notice. Now until the final team sheet is seen it is impossible to know for certain who is on that team bus, but I have seen it suggested that they may not have 10 outfield players. I did consider waiting to see the team news before having a bet, but I think it is a case of trying to beat the crowd on this one. Given the Gloucester players had a massive scare on Saturday I don't think they will take things lightly tonight and with the draw given them a home tie against a lower league side in the next round, it looks a decent opportunity to get to the 1st Round. Gloucester have done us a few favours already this season and even if Whitby do have 10 outfield players on the pitch I still think City will be too strong at the 2nd time of asking. For me the bet is on the -1 handicap with is 15/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power which could look very big depending on team news and looks a good bet anyway.

Gloucester City -1 3pts @ 15/8 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Boylesports

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13 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Looks like the price has well and truly gone as you suspected!

The price went faster than a toilet stop in Rattlesnake country. We will need the asian sovereign wealth funds to back Whitby into oblivion before more punters can get back on the Gloucester cash wagon.

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Today i will try small Mickleover against Morepeth...  Mickleover on a good Run with just 1 Lose in last 7 Games. Opponent Morepeth with only 6 Games left, and they now have to Midweek-Games in a Row. This is the First and it will be difficult - also they must made a trip around a little bit over 3 Hours - so interesting to see how they can handle this in a Midweek Game, after tough Away Lose in FA-Cup Q Round against League Opponent Nantwich.

For me price for Home Win is little bit too High.

So i will try it with 2/10

Mickleover @ 2.25 2/10 bet365

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@Darran Any Opinion to the Fa-Cup Replay Game of Weston against Kingstonian. My feeling is that Kingstonian Odd is too High. They´ve good a late equalizer Goal in 90th Minute after they was down to 10 Men. So for me little bit unlucky. And they are not the weakest Travlers in League...

Maybe here we´ve got here a surprise?

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6 hours ago, Neubs said:

@Darran Any Opinion to the Fa-Cup Replay Game of Weston against Kingstonian. My feeling is that Kingstonian Odd is too High. They´ve good a late equalizer Goal in 90th Minute after they was down to 10 Men. So for me little bit unlucky. And they are not the weakest Travlers in League...

Maybe here we´ve got here a surprise?

Don’t have any strong view to be honest. Might be a bit high but they have under performed for me so far this season

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22 hours ago, Neubs said:

Today i will try small Mickleover against Morepeth...  Mickleover on a good Run with just 1 Lose in last 7 Games. Opponent Morepeth with only 6 Games left, and they now have to Midweek-Games in a Row. This is the First and it will be difficult - also they must made a trip around a little bit over 3 Hours - so interesting to see how they can handle this in a Midweek Game, after tough Away Lose in FA-Cup Q Round against League Opponent Nantwich.

For me price for Home Win is little bit too High.

So i will try it with 2/10

Mickleover @ 2.25 2/10 >bet365

Should have taken Kingstonian.... :(

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1 hour ago, the bastardian said:

and 20   dover only 4 hartlepool ?

 

with darran stop     no good from 3 years  sorry mate

Grow up. Darran is the best tipster on this site. Period. He's not infallible, but his record is superb. Unlucky week mate, that's the way it goes sometimes.

My bank balance is much better for your hard work and altruism in sharing. Keep doing what you're doing. Many thanks.

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55 minutes ago, Shep65 said:

Grow up. Darran is the best tipster on this site. Period. He's not infallible, but his record is superb. Unlucky week mate, that's the way it goes sometimes.

My bank balance is much better for your hard work and altruism in sharing. Keep doing what you're doing. Many thanks.

Couldn't have put it better myself.

It's extremely rare to find a tipster / poster of Darran's quality.

If people can't handle a couple of harsh coupons then they shouldn't even be gambling. I would echo @Johnmccain's post and say bettors need to have good bankroll management and not have too much faith in any given bet. Personally I never bet more than 2% of my total bankroll on any one bet.

Your average betting odds should be an important factor when considering your BR management structure (the higher the average odds = smaller percentage of total bankroll per bet).

If you can learn not to be outraged when you loose and not intoxicated when you win then you will be a better gambler, and perhaps a better person aswell.

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Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. 

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It's ridiculous to get on anyone's back about a losing run. Without the aid of a crystal ball, no matter how good you are at assessing the odds and trying to pick out value, there will always be losing runs. It's just impossible to avoid. What counts is results over a long series of bets.

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Clearly someone has just wandered in, seen a few bad results, probably has a poor money management approach to betting and has sulked. Darran has had some spectacular results consistently and if you're sensible enough to bank those and continue following at modest stakes you, like me, are already massively in profit and see the bigger picture.
I know Darran backs his own tips as much as posting, so it's a joint venture. He doesn't really follow the classic "justification" way of Profit/loss that many paid for tipsters do.
He just "does" and succeeds.

Thanks Darran.

 

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I remember reading something along the same lines last season after a couple of adverse results and I posted figures. Unfortunatly some expect everything to win, have no idea about money management or don't understand odds too chance of success.

Just for the record I bet Darran's recommendations. I don't always get the prices that Darran posts because of delay on my part from when Darran posts, often up to 8 hours later.

My figures are as follows, Darran's profit will be bigger due to getting on at top end of market. Note that the Nap's are 6 wins and 10 losses for -5.86 points. I take the Nap as the biggest stake for that weekend or midweek.

Total Stakes  158 points
Returns  174.48
Profit  16.48
ROI  10.4%

10% ROI on football 1X2 market is more than credible and I would safely say that at prices recommended the ROI would be in excess of 12%.

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6 hours ago, Ratty said:

I remember reading something along the same lines last season after a couple of adverse results and I posted figures. Unfortunatly some expect everything to win, have no idea about money management or don't understand odds too chance of success.

Just for the record I bet Darran's recommendations. I don't always get the prices that Darran posts because of delay on my part from when Darran posts, often up to 8 hours later.

My figures are as follows, Darran's profit will be bigger due to getting on at top end of market. Note that the Nap's are 6 wins and 10 losses for -5.86 points. I take the Nap as the biggest stake for that weekend or midweek.

Total Stakes  158 points
Returns  174.48
Profit  16.48
ROI  10.4%

10% ROI on football 1X2 market is more than credible and I would safely say that at prices recommended the ROI would be in excess of 12%.

Cheers for those stats. I don't always get top price as I don't have easy access to a BetVictor account. The Naps would have been showing a profit before Saturday and Tuesday's disaster.

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Hi Darran

That idiot's unnecessary posts motivated me to finally register, having been a silent follower for the last year.

I bet in a similar manner, i.e. rarely odds on, mainly 2s or longer shots that I think should be 6/4 chances.....betting in that way does mean that no one is gonna get it right all the time, or even 50%, but then you don't need to at those average odds.

I've found your analysis very helpful as I mainly bet Isthmian Prem as that's the League I see most games (following my team Leatherhead), and generally combinations of trebles & 4 folds which can mean longish losing runs but I don't need to nail many to get a decent return.

Anyway, just wanted to belatedly add my thanks, and keep up the sterling work!

 

 

 

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