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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 28 - November 3

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Well, almost-the-last week is here. There are still the ATP Finals, of course, and the Davis Cup, but I'm not sure how popular the latter is going to be with the new format and the former have just a couple of matches per day, so yeah, this is where things almost come to an end this season. Enjoy and good luck!

Marin Cilic to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Neither guy is in a particularly good form, but Cilic seems to be playing somewhat better nonetheless and he has a very sweet record against the (still) youngster, so I'm going with him for my first pick of the week. Moreover, the Paris conditions are quite specific and Hurkacz hasn't played in them before, so that's yet another thing speaking for the experienced Croat here.

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Jonas Forejtek to beat Yunseong Chung at 1.72 with Bet365

Although I am very slightly scared by the fact that Forejtek doesn't really know Asia all that much, Chung hasn't beaten anyone decent for so long that I simply don't trust him against such a rising star. Forejtek is having an excellent season and is one of the most talented lads around, so I'm happy to chance him here.

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Cheers @Kokukepo! The goal is to end the year in a profit, looking very good at the moment with just about 26 days to go.

Hiroki Moriya (-3.5) to beat Evan King at 2.03 with Pinnacle

I watched both of these recently and Moriya is currently playing at least a level above King, who nearly lost even against the virtually unknown Ibrahim not that long ago. Not saying this is a lock or anything and the line is a bit on the edge considering that Moriya might be tired a little bit, but the odds are nice and there is a gap between the two, so I'll chance the man from Japan yet again. He's always been a quality performer in my book.

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Well, that was a bit unfortunate.

Corentin Moutet (+6.5) to beat Novak Djokovic at 1.72 with Pinnacle

While I don't have any reason to believe that Novak Djokovic isn't going to do well in Paris and London, I think that this handicap line is simply too big given the fairly quick conditions, the fact that Moutet is a home guy, and that Djokovic is yet to play this week. It can be hard to hold serves against Djokovic, of course, but Moutet was a big talent once and I'm sure that he's going to play his heart out, so I'm happy to side with at +6.5. I wouldn't be so happy to side with him at +5.5, but +6 would be the fairest of them all I guess.

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Henri Laaksonen to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 2.06 with Pinnacle

While I do not expect this to be easy by any means, as Botic is on an excellent run at the moment, but I don't think that Laaksonen should be offered at above 2.00, as he's still the better player by a fair margin. Also, I can imagine that Botic might be a bit tired after playing so much recently and Laaksonen has something to play for, as he's currently on the edge of Top 100.

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12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, that was a bit unfortunate.

Corentin Moutet (+6.5) to beat Novak Djokovic at 1.72 with Pinnacle

While I don't have any reason to believe that Novak Djokovic isn't going to do well in Paris and London, I think that this handicap line is simply too big given the fairly quick conditions, the fact that Moutet is a home guy, and that Djokovic is yet to play this week. It can be hard to hold serves against Djokovic, of course, but Moutet was a big talent once and I'm sure that he's going to play his heart out, so I'm happy to side with at +6.5. I wouldn't be so happy to side with him at +5.5, but +6 would be the fairest of them all I guess.

Easy winner. Djokovic didn't look that good from what I saw - would have been interesting to see what would have happened if he'd dropped that first set like he should have done. This week is definitely one to be wary of when it comes to the big names and in particular those that have qualified for the O2. Medvedev yesterday for example - I'm not sure he loses against Chardy if he needed to win to qualify for the tour finals.

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Yeah it was ridiculous the amount of breakpoints Medvedev spurned. Chardy got out of 0-40 in one service game and then 15-40 in the next in the third set - if you're Chardy you must be thinking it's going to be your day and if you're Medvedev you must be thinking I'm not winning this no matter what I do.

Edited by Torque

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

Yeah it was ridiculous the amount of breakpoints Medvedev spurned. Chardy got out of 0-40 in one service game and then 15-40 in the next in the third set - if you're Chardy you must be thinking it's going to be your day and if you're Medvedev you must be thinking I'm not winning this no matter what I do.

A bit like Humbert against Murray recently. I honestly think if you can hold serve having fended off break points it's almost better than holding serve easily. It's such a psychological boost for the server and so frustrating for the receiver, and I reckon it often spills into the next game so that the server that's gotten out of being broken has a better chance of breaking than would normally be the case - although I have no data to back that up and so could be wrong.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.99 with Pinnacle

The odds have already dropped from the opening values, but I like the price nonetheless. Put simply, Djokovic has been nowhere near his usual level so far in this event and he really seems to be playing only as strongly as he needs to. It worked against Moutet and Edmund, but is it going to work against Tsitsipas? Perhaps it is, but I'm willing to take a chance at odds this big.

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Last minute call.

ATP Paris. Wawrinka - Nadal

Because:

  • It's only the second hard-court match of Nadal since US Open.
  • Nadal did not look very convincing against Manarinno.
  • Wawrinka plays well on hard court and played many games in the last period.

I think that Wawrinka has a good chance to take at least a set from Nadal @2.0 Unibet.

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Tsitsipas to beat Djokovic @3.50 offered by bet365

Reasons are: Excellent performance by Tsitsipas yesterday, a sign that he is extremely motivated to collect as much more points in this tournament, in order to have stock to defend the semi final points in up coming AO grand slam. Last year here in Paris, Tsitsipas was shot out from the second round

Djokovic and Nadal are using this event as preparation for the last remaining big event of the season, which is the London finals. I predict that Djokovic will save energy for London. Always have in mind that top players are tired in this part of the season.

For me, a good chance to make profit!

Medium stakes, because Djokovic is Djokovic!😉

Good luck punters!

 

 

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A question for local experienced tennis bets analysts: Isn't ca. 2.5 odds for Bencic vs Svitolina interesting and inviting? Bencic leads 2-1 in h / h. They have similar skills but Bencic is more aggressive and Svitolina can't outpower her.

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@MMABetting97 Well, this week wasn't particularly good. :unsure

@lelit I have to say that I haven't been watching the WTA Finals all that much, but it seems that Svitolina is essentially the only player that's playing to at least some standards there. I'd certainly be surprised to see Bencic win, but I've seen almost nothing from China this week.

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Novak Djokovic proved he his still a king when a comes to tennis. Corentin Moutetbeing 2 point close to victory.
This kid could not have won anyway but its not often you see Djokovic facing multiple break points against such an opposition.

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