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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 21 - October 27

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Yecong He (+3.5) to beat Fabien Reboul at 2.00 with Pinnacle

I went through the ATP matches twice and couldn't really find anything interesting, so here I am with one Challenger pick instead. I don't claim to have any special knowledge about the players involved, but I tracked He's matches against Koepfer and Wu and he was quite competitive in those against opponents that are way better than Reboul, so I think that he could finally find something to celebrate in this one. He's got a decent serve, he's going to have the conditions on his side here, and Reboul is one of the more inconsistent players out there, he's actually reminded me of Paire on the (admittedly very few) occasions I've seen him play. The Frenchman is certainly the favorite, but I like the handicap against him.

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19 hours ago, Teodore said:

Guys, what do you think about triple: Dimitro + Tsisipas + Bautista Agut? 

as some of you may have noticed, backing clear favorites is an essential part of my betting philosophy. that said i would not touch the moneylines for tsitsipas and bautista agut for various reasons. tsitsipas will face ramos vinolas and the spaniard had some suprising performances on hard courts this year. i still think that tsitsipas will win it somehow, but it could be way closer than expected. tsitsipas +1.5 sets is the safe option for me. different situation with bautista agut. he always was and still is one of my favorite players because he is usually rock solid, but he seems somehow off since wimbledon. copil is very dangerous on indoor hard courts and rba's shape is more than questionable. i wouldn't even go for rba +1.5 sets in this one. take zverev ;)

Edited by kedbet

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Feliciano Lopez to beat Gilles Simon at 2.15 with Parions Sport

These two former members of the ATP circuit have already played each other 9 times in official matches. Lopez leads with 6 wins. Note that the Spaniard lost the only two games played on hard.

Lopez comes out of a good tournament in Antwerp. He was eliminated in the 2nd round (by Wawrinka and in 3 sets) but he proved that it was still difficult to break him on this fast surface. So it's far from an easy match for Simon. Lopez will have very little luck if he makes the exchanges last with Simon. The latter is a metronome of the baseline (even more when he is in shape). That is why the Spaniard should take initiatives, by attempting winning shots and by going up to net.

I want to believe in a victory for Lopez because he made a very good impression in Antwerp. The Spaniard has managed to play his games effectively but also manage the exchanges correctly without spending too much resources. I see him making Simon runs and forcing him to put a little more to gain points. The Frenchman also seemed dulled in his last match against Wawrinka. When he has a little less good, Simon discovers himself much more at serving and it could benefit his opponent of the day.

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Makoto Ochi (+5) to beat Denis Istomin at 1.82 with Pinnacle

I just can't find anything to bet on in the main events and that is a bit sad I guess, but here I am with another Challenger pick instead. I haven't done much betting on those tournaments recently, so it probably can't hurt to turn back to them at least every now and then. Makoto Ochi is a very decent player by Challenger standards, but this bet is more about opposing Istomin, who's been in a bad form throughout the year with only a couple of exceptions and who just isn't in a comfortable spot at the moment confidence-wise. He lost badly last time out and Ochi is bound to play his heart out imo, so the handicap looks a touch high to me simply because Istomin is overrated at the moment.

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Leonardo Mayer to beat Joao Menezes at 1.46 with Pinnacle

Short odds for me this time around, as I'll be backing Leonardo Mayer against Joao Menezes over in Lima. Neither player is in a particularly great form, but Mayer is way classier and he seems to be playing well again after a short injury break, so chances are that he's going to end the season on some sort of a high. He certainly has enough class to even win the entire thing in Peru, while Menezes has always been thoroughly average in my book.

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Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Borna Coric at 2.35 with Parions Sport

These two players have already clashed 3 times, still on clay, and Mikhail Kukushkin has always left with the victory.

Coric discovered this ATP 500 in Vienna last year. He had reached the quarter-finals after victories over Ramos-Vinolas and Puglia. The Croatian had to give up against Anderson. Kukushkin, meanwhile, also participated in the Austrian tournament for the 1st time in 2018. The Kazakh reached the semifinals after winning against Dimitrov, Rublev and Fucsovics. Nishikori had then asked him to pack his bags.

Coric should be favorite to win. But, to tell you the truth, I find it hard to see him win this meeting. Indeed, I was really not convinced by his latest performances, whether in Asia or even in indoor St. Petersburg. The Croatian wins hard (often in 3 sets) and concedes a lot of opportunities on his games. The guy is in doubt and it shows (I suspect him to even drag a physical glitch). All this to say that Kukushkin has, in my opinion, all his chances of winning this match. Apart from the fact that he has never lost to the Croatian, the Kazakh has been playing interesting tennis for some time. He is not the most regular player on the circuit, but he manages to stay aggressive and put doubt in the minds of his opponents (that's good, Coric is not in right now).

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Grigor Dimitrov to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.25 with bet365

The only match between these two was this year in Monte Carlo and Grigor won it.

without any doubt the italian is the better player right now but Grigor still has the momentum from US Open

Berrettini is having amazing season but I think he played too many matches and at the end of the year he seems a little bit tired

also in his last match against Edmund he seemed to have his ankle twisted which could have serious impact on today’s match 

Dimitrov is more experienced than Berrettini and if the italian has physical problems Grigor would use them in his favour.

also dimitrov showed in US Open that he is working on his mental problems and cleared his style of play. i think he is 100% motivated right now and wants to play tennis again 

 

 

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Grigor Dimitrov +1.5 set to beat Matteo Berettinni || 1.47 with OLYBET! 

Well, i guess that the odds should be even here,  but the bookies decided to pick Matteo as a fav. This is because of his recent form, he is playing well, but at this state of the year you might think that he can be tired playing so many tournaments. His last performance vs Edmund ust showed that maybe time to lose here. He is playing no other than Grigor who is maybe in better strenght condition. He probably will win here,  but i pick +1.5 set just to be little bit carefull!  GL! 

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Henri Laaksonen +1.5 set to beat Jan-Lennard Struf || 1.95 with OLYBET! 

the home guy beat Paire in first round,  and think he has a chance for upset here,  because german is in terible shape, and the swiss with home crowd can take adv of it. 

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Daniel Evans to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1.75 with Parions Sport

This will be the third time these two players will compete, after Knoxville in 2015 and Delray Beach this year. Evans won both games in 3 sets. 

Tiafoe was present in Vienna last season and he had not managed to pass the 1st round (defeat against Nishikori, in 3 sets anyway). We must go back to 2017 to see the only participation of the American in this ATP 500 Basel. The unfortunate man had fallen in front of Federer, and I'll let you guess what happened next. Evans, meanwhile, will participate in this tournament for the 1st time in his career.

I find this meeting interesting. We are indeed dealing with two mobile players who know how to release some explosive shots. I expect a close encounter, at least in the beginning. Evans seems slightly superior to his opponent. The Brit has made me a better impression in recent tournaments, whether in Asia or Stockholm. His game is far from being the cleanest, but he knows how to serve well and it could disturb a Tiafoe far from being comfortable to raise it. In addition, Evans can get his points, vary his shots and hit hard in the ball. Again, his opponent is not the most adept of defensive tennis. He needs time to arm his attacks, which the Briton could prevent him from doing.

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Petra Martic to beat Madison Keys at 1.86 with Parions Sport

This will be the 2nd time that these two players will face each other. Martic won the 1st match in 3 sets at the French Open in 2017. Keys has shown many signs of febrility since the beginning of the Asian Tour including early eliminations in Osaka and Beijing. This seems to be confirmed here in Zhuhai with an expeditious 1st match in 2 sets lost against the Chinese Saisai Zheng. Martic on her side seems more comfortable in Asia with a final in Zhengzhou and a quarter in Wuhan. The Croatian has not played since September 30th where she lost against Mertens in Beijing, so she should arrive in top form for this match. The round robin format offers the opportunity for the American to redeem herself but Martic is not the type of player you want to face when you have trouble putting the ball in the court...

Edited by FrenchPunter

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It is risky to bet on winners in the final WTA matches. "Heroes" are usually tired or injured and often act as if punished by playing in these tournaments.

However, there are always some players who have ambitions related to these tournaments and they need to be recognized first, to bet on them, for the right price.

Edited by lelit

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Hiroki Moriya to beat Yasutaka Uchiyama at 3.87 with Pinnacle

Continuing my Challenger theme of the week, I'll be taking Moriya to beat Uchiyama at what looks like an excellent price to me. Of course, there's absolutely no doubt that Uchiyama is the big favorite in the match, but 3.87? That's simply too much given that Moriya has beaten him before, that Moriya has already beaten two decent opponents in this event, and that Uchiyama is on a long streak with little rest. The favorite even showed some signs of fatigue in his previous match against Sekiguchi, where he had to fight for three sets against an opponent that's a league below Moriya, so I'm happy to take my chances here.

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Reilly Opelka (+2.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Alright, I'm also going to dip into the ATP for once this week, although I'm not sure for how long, it might be just this one bet honestly before the Paris Masters. In any case, Opelka has been surprisingly good so far this week and I loved his effort against Goffin. The Belgian isn't at his best at the moment, of course, but Opelka managed to come back against him in a fancy fashion regardless and RBA isn't going through a particularly bright patch himself, so I think that Opelka is going to be a bit better than he was in their last encounter in Shanghai thanks to his form and the somewhat more favorable conditions.

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