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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 14 - October 20

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i don't even think she should be favourite tomorrow. she lost the last four meetings vs mladenovic. kiki plays her best tennis on indoor hard courts. the only time kiki beat her in straight sets was in fed cup on an indoor hard court in switzerland. kiki beat way better opponents in moscow. kiki has a great coach with bajin. the only reason for giving her these odds is the current wta ranking and the chance to qualify for the wta finals. her form is still way off, she could have easily lost to flipkens today. if she loses the first set tiebreak she is mentally done, just like flipkens was after wasting all these setpoints. plus she has even more pressure now and i don't think that will help her game in any way. skip or take an over, because they're both shaky as hell.

Edited by kedbet

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kedet,

Do not count matches when Belinda recovered from numerous surgerys. In 4 matches of 5 played, Bencic was the favorite. Anyway I admit that value is on Mladenowic 2.5 and Bencic is not in topform.
Personally, I believe that everything Kiki can do in tennis, Bencic can do better :))  But this is WTA; players are tired at this time of year, therefore a lot of unexpected results.

 Bencic is often hysterical; her father is absent, her fiance / fitness coach is coaching her, It could be a problem...

Edited by lelit

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1 hour ago, lelit said:

Personally, I believe that everything Kiki can do in tennis, Bencic can do better :))

i completely agree.. so what you guys think, trust bencic in this one?

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Y

29 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, she's clearly more likely to win due to a variety of factors, but the odds aren't that great imo.

You're right, maybe I needlessly mentioned this match.

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i'm pretty sure that peng will take at least a set vs hibino in suzhou, so we could play bencic at 50/50 odds :D

/edit: said and done, combo pick @ 2.08 with bet365

Peng - Hibino / ITF Suzhou / Peng +1.5 Sets @ 1.36 / 6-4, 0-0
Bencic - Mladenovic / WTA Moscow / Bencic @ 1.53 / 6-3, 6-4

peng plays at home, crowd will cheer. the last time she faced hibino she won in straight sets and outscored the japanese with +20 points. the chinese won a set in 16 of her last 18 matches. lost in straight sets only vs yastremska and muguruza. in moscow i'm trusting bencic to secure the wta finals spot.

due to a variety of factors ;)

Edited by kedbet

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Ugo Humbert to beat Andy Murray @ 3.00 Unibet

I think this is worth a punt. Humbert had a good win over Goffin here before looking like he might get beaten by Pella, before recovering well to win in three sets. He's a good young prospect and exactly the kind of player that can get the better of Murray, who has flattered to deceive during his comeback. Even at this tournament I don't think he's played well, despite three wins. He should have beaten Coppejans more easily than he did, Cuevas was unlikely to cause many problems due to his preference for clay and tendency to fade towards the end of the season and Copil should have been beaten in two sets but in the end it took three. He's giving up to many opportunities on serve, which is leading to longer games which is arguably what he could really do without. Humbert should have the energy to take advantage of the accumulated fatigue and aches and pains that Murray is likely to be feeling at this stage of the tournament, and if he can hold his nerve could get what I'm sure he would see as a big win.

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Karolina Muchova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at 1.52 with Parions Sport

It will be the 1st time that these two players will compete.

Muchova has had a season that has only improved over time. She lost a final in Prague, won in Seoul and was compelling this week in Moscow where she has won all her three matches in straight sets including her 2nd victory against Vekic and an easy win against Alexandrova who is dangerous in indoor.

Pavlyuchenkova also had a brilliant start to the season and reached the quarter-finals at the Australian Open. Some big names such as Bertens, Sabalenka and Kerber have been her victims this season. She almost won her 1st title of the season last month in Japan but lost against Osaka.

I chose the Czech because she has been impressive since the beginning of this tournament against tough opponents while the Russian is far from playing her best tennis this week.

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17 hours ago, Torque said:

Ugo Humbert to beat Andy Murray @ 3.00 Unibet

I think this is worth a punt. Humbert had a good win over Goffin here before looking like he might get beaten by Pella, before recovering well to win in three sets. He's a good young prospect and exactly the kind of player that can get the better of Murray, who has flattered to deceive during his comeback. Even at this tournament I don't think he's played well, despite three wins. He should have beaten Coppejans more easily than he did, Cuevas was unlikely to cause many problems due to his preference for clay and tendency to fade towards the end of the season and Copil should have been beaten in two sets but in the end it took three. He's giving up to many opportunities on serve, which is leading to longer games which is arguably what he could really do without. Humbert should have the energy to take advantage of the accumulated fatigue and aches and pains that Murray is likely to be feeling at this stage of the tournament, and if he can hold his nerve could get what I'm sure he would see as a big win.

That was frustrating. Humbert was looking good at a set up and deep into the second, only to be broken to lose the second set 7-5. From there, he went 0-40 ahead on Murray's serve at the start of the third and failed to take any of those break points chances. At that point, I was pretty sure the game was up and he wouldn't be able to recover from not being able to break despite so many chances and that was exactly what happened. Having saved three break points Murray immediately broke Humbert to love, with the final point of the game the ninth in a row that Murray won from 0-40 in that opening game. There's no doubt in my mind that Humbert lost that match from a mental perspective, rather than because he wasn't good enough to win it - but that's tennis for you. What counts is to win the big points and the best players, like Murray, are able to do that and that's what separates them from the rest.

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